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David Benavidez‘ fight against Demetrius Andrade is going to be a historic event. Not because of anything to do with the fight itself- but because it’s scheduled to be the last ever pay-per-view on prestige American cable TV, as Showtime follows HBO in ushering boxing out of the door.
Nonetheless, the fight itself is intriguing too, as David Benavidez – one of the most exciting fighters in the sport- looks to cement his place as chief challenger to Canelo Alvarez with another dominant win. Andrade meanwhile wants to jump the queue- a talented fighter who’s somewhat wasted his career, he’s fighting a genuine threat for the first time in ten years and we’ll finally find out what he’s made of.
Well, both have taken pretty weird routes to get where they are, although in very different ways. David Benavidez, at 26 years old, has rammed a lot into his career so far, having won and lost the full version of the WBC title twice- despite never losing a fight. Andrade, on the other hand, won his first world title at super-welterweight in 2013… and that was arguably the last time he fought a genuinely world-level opponent. He’s talked a big game but this is the first time the walk might match the talk.
The fight card will be a Showtime PPV, priced at $74.99 USD. It can be purchased through Showtime, PPV.com, or Fite.TV. The PPV portion of the card will start at 8PM ET, with the prelim portion beginning at 6PM ET.
The Preview: How did David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade get here?
Let’s start with David Benavidez. He made his name with some highlight-reel flashes of ridiculous handspeed, before winning the title for the first time against Ronald Gavril. He wasn’t satisfied with that performance so he faced Gavril again, winning much more comfortably- before then blowing the title with a positive test for cocaine. He served his ban, won the title back by jabbing Anthony Dirrell’s face off… and promptly lost it again by coming in heavy against Roamer Alexis Angulo.
He has fought his way back to the top of the pile again, but in the meantime Canelo Alvarez yoinked the belt by beating Callum Smith back in 2020, and since then Benavidez has had to be satisfied with an ‘interim’ title and has mostly been about trying to persuade the undisputed champ to give him a fight. He’ll be hoping a dominant win here puts him center stage.
Andrade will be hoping the same of course, but his reasons to prove himself come from another direction. There are two problems he’s dealing with, somewhat but not entirely related. The first is that he’s often seen as pretty boring- he does sometimes start fights quickly, but if he doesn’t score an early KO they often devolve into him using his speed to simply stay at range and jab as much as he can. When this happens even against opponents he’s clearly superior to, it gets frustrating.
The second is that the level of opposition, as mentioned, has been dreadful. He beat Vanes Matriosan to win a light-middleweight title in 2013, and has probably not fought anyone close to that level since. He claims he’s been avoided and to some extent that may be true – but he’s also not done anything to make himself worth facing, as far as bringing in fans and money. He’s also on at least two occasions refused to fight significant opponents in fights that were there for him.
Back in 2014, he’d signed a contract to face Jermell Charlo before pulling out because he thought he could get more money. And much more recently, he vacated his WBO middleweight title last year rather than face his mandatory challenger, the dangerous Janibek Alimkhanouly. So it hasn’t been a particularly good look for him. Now he’s jumped up a division and is finally taking on a genuinely dangerous opponent, and he’ll want to show that all the talk of why he’s been avoided is backed up by his skills. Let’s take a look at that.
The Breakdown: How do David Benavidez and Demetrius Andrade match up?
This is very much a clash of styles, and what kind of fight we get depends on who gets their way. Andrade, as mentioned, will likely be trying to box at range. Probably moreso than usual, even, because for reasons we’ll get to in a second, being in the pocket with David Benavidez is not likely to be a happy place for him. Benavidez, for his part, works his way in behind a lancing jab but is otherwise at his best when he can fire off flashing combinations at mid and close range. He likes to pile on the attrition and crank up the pressure as a fight goes on.
Andrade’s main reason for optimism is that, for someone with such fast hands, David Benavidez’ footwork is surprisingly slow and awkward. A lot less so than it was a few years ago- he does actually stay in stance while stepping forward now, so he’s less vulnerable to counters, and he positions himself better. But he’s still not rapid with it. Andrade is, so that’ll be his main tool.
The downside for him even here though is that, rare for him, he’s facing someone taller. That means that even jabbing will involve darting in and out of Benavidez’ range- and the jab coming back at him will be very good. So he’ll have to avoid it, and may well be out of position by the time he throws anything of his own.
This is because of Andrade’s own big weakness- his head movement. That is to say, he’s happy to move his head and does so confidently, but his feet don’t match what his head is doing and he gets off-balance very quickly. He’s often taking almost staggering steps after avoiding just a couple of punches, to get to a range he can recover. To date he’s managed to get by with his speed and agility, but Benavidez is a whole different beast.
Put simply, as mentioned, David Benavidez’ handspeed is really good, and he uses it to deliver snappy, punishing combinations. Not just rote flurries, either, but picked-out, reactive punches, aiming at the gaps opened by the punches before. Any fighter getting out of shape avoiding the first punch or two is going to find the third, fourth and fifth causing extra damage. He combines this with an excellent guard that makes it hard for opponents to fight their way out of trouble by dissuading him.
David Benavidez followers may recognise this as a similar dynamic to that of the Caleb Plant fight earlier this year. Plant doesn’t react in quite the same way as Andrade- he tends to freeze up, rather than stagger- but he’s also a guy who can look slick at range but runs out of ideas after the first phase or two of defense in close. Andrade is faster than Plant but smaller, so he’ll have to work harder to get to safety- and he’ll be using some energy recovering from those big lurching movements he makes as he escapes.
One thing that may give David Benavidez pause for thought is Andrade’s southpaw stance- he hasn’t faced one since Denis Douglin, back in 2016 before he reached world level. However, there’s a couple of things that might help him counter that issue. First is that Benavidez’ length advantage somewhat mitigates the disadvantages an orthodox fighter often finds with southpaws at range.
The second is that once in close, Andrade’s angles and movements are weird whether he’s southpaw or not, so David Benavidez will be dealing with that anyway- but some of Andrade’s odd lurches, if he starts making them, are likely to play against that southpaw advantage rather than work with it.
The Prediction: Who wins David Benavidez vs Demetrius Andrade?
With all that in mind, there’s a good chance David Benavidez takes a while to get going. Because his movement isn’t all that, he can take a while to find his timing, and Andrade will probably have some joy early on. It’s not completely impossible that he maintains that for the whole fight, but the likelyhood is that Benavidez will eventually start doing damage with the jab and turn that into pulling the fight into the range he needs.
If Andrade gets caught there, especially as he starts to tire, it’s difficult to see him seeing the end. Benavidez isn’t a one-hit-quitter sort of puncher, but the punishment he delivers adds up, so look out for a David Benavidez win by TKO in the middle rounds.
What’s on the undercard? Jermall Charlo returns
It’s a strong undercard. Which you’d hope for from a 75 dollar ppv, but… well, it isn’t always true. Possibly Showtime want to go out with a bang, possibly PBC just need to get as many of their fighters out as they can before the Showtime contract ends in January, since they don’t have an announced deal to replace it yet. Either way, it’s resulted in some depth here, with two world titles and the non-title fight of a returning champion.
Possibly the main story of interest is the return of Jermall Charlo, the WBC middleweight champion, after two and a half years out. He fights Jose Benavidez Jr, the elder brother of David Benavidez. The fight isn’t at middlewight and therefore not for the belt- and it’s also only 10 rounds. Nonetheless, it throws up all sorts of questions.
Charlo has to prove he’s mentally and physically still there after his time out and much-documented mental-health struggles. Benavidez, who was once a top prospect himself before a shooting in 2016 left his right leg compromised, has been s—-talking a lot in the lead-up here, and will be hoping a win can push him towards one last hurrah in a real title shot.
The main fight of interest, though, is the lightweight showdown between Subriel Matias and Shohjahon Ergashev, which should just be a war. Both are highly aggressive fighters with power to spare, and they’re throwing down for the IBF world title Matias currently holds. It’s definitely worth tuning in for.
The final (or first) fight on the main card is another world title, as Hector Luis Garcia defends the WBC super-featherweight title he won in a big upset over Roger Guttierez last year. His opponent, Lamont Roach, has challenged for a title before, four years ago, and will be hoping to take the chance this time.
The prelims will see the return of Sergey Lipinets, fighting back at 140lbs after a difficult sojourn at 147 and almost a year out since his last fight. He faces Michel Rivera in a potentially-fun 12 rounder. The rest of the prelims feature a number of prospects and want-to-bes, at various stages in their development. One to keep an eye on might be Curmel Moton, a 17-year-old who Floyd Mayweather speaks extremely highly of. He’s in his second fight here, against the 3-0-0 Hunter Turbyfill.