Jonny Bones can’t steal our fight high! In an utterly loaded fight card, UFC 200 will finally be upon us tomorrow.
This is where I usually put out win probabilities, but I’m upgrading the prediction model to a machine learning random forest and the test results aren’t yet to my satisfaction. So I’ll keep playing around with it and, in the meantime, take you through some key fighter stats for tomorrow’s matchups. I can’t put out nice charts and graphs, so let’s go on a written journey.
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
The most interesting stat in this matchup is… Oops. Well, I guess it would be the number of USADA-flagged drug test results. Jonny Bones is the winner: 1-0.
Moving on.
Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
Lesnar’s statistical dominance has faded in his last three fights, even with one of those being a win. He went from dropping his first three opponents to getting dropped four times by his final three opponents. Oh yeah, and he hasn’t fought in 4 ½ years.
Technically, Lesnar knocks down opponents with one-quarter of his standing power head strikes landed and the percent at which Hunt gets knocked down is a little higher than average. But at distance, Hunt should tear Lesnar up. He lands 2.4 more power strikes per five minutes (P5M) than his opponents while Lesnar eats 1.8 more. Lesnar shoots 3 ½ more takedowns than average and Hunt’s only average at defending them, but he’s been better lately when not fighting a dude named Stipe.
Finally, Hunt gets roughly one knockdown for every 10 minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage, or one knockdown for roughly one of every 20 standing power head strikes landed. On the defensive end, Lesnar gets knocked to the mat 3.8 times in the same 10 minute period, or goes down from one of every 8 standing power shots connected to his skull.
Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
The statistical book on Miesha Tate is that she’s always in rough-and-tumble battles. But yet she tends to win and is the undisputed women’s bantamweight champ.
In my measure of a fighter’s dominance from 0% (got destroyed) to 100% (kicked some ass), excluding Ronda Rousey fights, Tate’s lowest score is 35.4%. Yet her highest score is only 85.7%. It’s unheard-of for a UFC champion to have a grand total of zero victories with 90% dominance or more.
Amanda Nunes’ only losses have been TKOs and Tate’s never managed to knock anyone out in elite competition. And get a load of this. Nunes lands 15.5 power strikes P5M at distance while absorbing 6.1 for a difference of 9.1 extra power shots landed - a ginormous edge. Tate lands 10.4 while eating 13.8.
The only shining light for Tate fans is that neither tends to spend much time at distance. Nunes and Tate both average 1:38 of every five minutes at distance, around 50 seconds in the clinch, and the rest on the ground. Yet both tend to have top control exactly 58% of the time. And outside of Ronda Rousey, neither’s been submitted.
If this fight doesn’t in some way get dirty, Tate should get run over. Yet she seems to have a knack for finding a way.
Aldo vs. Edgar
The old version of my prediction model has this fight basically as a 54-46 Ace King suited vs. Pocket Queens race. These guys both spend around 3:30 of every round at distance, very little time in the clinch, and when on the ground, have top control between 78 and 85% of the time (the latter is Edgar).
At distance, Aldo is more efficient than Edgar with power to the head and has better head defense. He just edges Edgar in most striking categories but has a huge advantage in knockdown power (.26 rate to Edgar’s .06 and 4.3% to Edgar’s 0.9%) and his rate of visible damage given is 150% that of Edgar.
Both guys have stellar takedown defense at distance and, in the clinch, Aldo’s 92% lower body takedown defense is amazing. For frame of reference, compare that to Edgar’s 42% defense.
But Edgar’s a lower body takedown machine from the clinch with twice the typical rate of attempts. He might only need one to do some damage, which he does to the tune of 30 power shots P5M with top control, 50% more than an average featherweight.
Too bad Aldo does the same 30 when he has top control.
Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
At distance, Velasquez is just over 200% more active with head jabs and almost 100% more active with power strikes than Browne. And he lands a better percentage. His knockdown rate beats Browne (1.21 to 0.38) but Brown has the better percent (7.6% to 4.9%).
In the clinch, Velasquez becomes a beast. With control 78% of the time, he lands 26.0 power strikes P5M and only absorbs 9.3. Meanwhile, Browne absorbs 29.9 and only lands 12.9.
Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena
At 59, Cat Zingano’s damage rate is off the charts (average women’s bantamweight is 6). Granted, she’s only had three documented fights and one was lost in about half-a-second. But she did some busting up on Tate and Nunes.
Pena’s also only had three documented fights and her distance numbers look a little like Ronda Rousey’s used to. Go out and throw crazy leather to get a takedown or move into the clinch. She throws 41.4 head jabs and 93.9 power strikes P5M compared to an average 26.5 and 39.2 and Zingano’s 28.2 and 56.3. With 20-26% accuracy, Pena’s not great at landing them, but that doesn’t seem to be her primary goal.
In only three fights, Zingano’s takedown defense hasn’t been great at 60% from distance and only 33% on lower bodies in the clinch. If Pena gets top control, she drops bombs at a rate of 56.2 power shots P5M.
Johny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum
On such a stacked card, can you believe that this fight is a bit meh? No statistics for them.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Rafael Assuncao
The rematch we’ve all been waiting for.
What can you say about Dillashaw? 97% top control, only taken down by Dominick Cruz, lands 19.4 power strikes P5M at distance to Assuncao’s 12.0. But at 15% and 19%, Assuncao’s head jab and head power defense is markedly lower than Dillashaw’s 27% and 26%.
Joe Lauzon vs. Diego Sanchez and Takanori Gomi vs. Jim Miller
I’m guessing these are the only statistics people really care about for these two fights.
Rate of damage dished out (a.k.a. busting up faces):
Lightweight average: 8
Lauzon: 15
Sanchez: 15
Gomi: 7
Miller: 27
Rate of damage received (a.k.a. getting busted up):
Lightweight average: 8
Lauzon: 16
Sanchez: 19
Gomi: 0
Miller: 16
Gomi might ruin the bloodfest, but it should be fun nonetheless. And all except Miller spend more time than an average lightweight standing and trading at distance.
Just drop bombs guys - glorious UFC 200 fistbombs.
Enjoy fight weekend everyone!
Notes: Strike attempts are for an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Visible damage rate is per five minutes the fighter is not on his back. It’s hard to bust up someone’s face while lying on your back. Damage percentage is per power head strike and distance head jab landed. Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percentage is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard. A bout closeness measure towards zero means a fighter is in blowouts (win or lose) and towards 100 means he is in very close fights.
Paul is Bloody Elbow’s analytics writer. All mistakes are his own and they’ve been known to happen sometimes. Follow him at @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.