Paul Gift

Dr. Paul Gift is a sports economist with a research focus on mixed martial arts. A licensed MMA referee and judge himself, Dr. Gift’s interests pertain to many facets of the MMA industry including behavioral biases and judging, the role of financial and environmental factors on fighter performance, determination of fighter marginal products, and predictive analytics.

A regular MMA business contributor for Forbes, Dr. Gift also writes about MMA analytics and officiating in popular press for SB Nation and co-hosts the MMA business podcast Show Money. His sports research has been cited in the Wall Street Journal, ESPN’s Grantland, and popular media including Around the Horn, Olbermann, and various MMA and boxing podcasts.

Henry Cejudo’s power could be a big problem for Sterling | UFC 288 alternative stats

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo alternative stats

A detailed breakdown of the position-by-position statistics to watch out for in UFC 288's Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo main event this Saturday.

Paul Gift | May 5

UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira alternative stats

The Octagon revisits NYC this Saturday with their UFC 281 PPV (pay-per-view) event, with one hell of a headliner and #3 hole matchup. Israel Adesanya finally gets his chance for the MMA version of redemption against Alex Pereira, the only man to ever knock him out. And oh good lord we finally get to see […]

Paul Gift | November 10

UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev alternative stats

One of the most anticipated matchups of the year should finally arrive Saturday afternoon at UFC 280. If we can’t get the lightweight champ Charles Oliveira (not technically, but in spirit) against the undefeated former divisional champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, then Islam Makhachev sure is a nice consolation prize. It’s the second time in two months […]

Paul Gift | October 20

UFC 278: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards alternative stats

UFC 278 goes down Saturday night in Utah with the return of pound-for-pound #1 ranked champion Kamaru Usman. He’ll square up in a rematch with Leon Edwards, seven years in the making. The co-main event features a long-awaited return of former UFC and Strikeforce middleweight champ Luke Rockhold who hasn’t fought since before the world […]

Paul Gift | August 18

UFC 276: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier alternative stats

UFC 276 goes down Saturday night in Las Vegas where “The Last Stylebender” Israel Adesanya will put his title and 11-fight middleweight win streak on the line in the main event against Jared Cannonier, who’s won five-of-six since dropping down from light heavyweight. We aren’t going to waste any time with the co-main event today. […]

Paul Gift | June 30

UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje alternative stats

UFC 274 goes down this Saturday night in Phoenix headlined by Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira’s second defense of his lightweight strap. With challenger Justin Gaethje, we’ve got a back-to-back lightweight title matchup with two excellent strikers who are also very hittable in their own right. The co-main event will be skipped as 2022 “Thug” Rose […]

Paul Gift | May 5

UFC 272 analytics: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal alternative stats

The grudge match is here. UFC 272 goes down Saturday night with a rare non-title headliner between former teammates turned rivals Colby Covington, the former interim welterweight champion, and Jorge Masvidal. Does he still count as the BMF belt-holder? Either way, the bad blood is there and the stats are, too, for one of them […]

Paul Gift | March 2

UFC 271 analytics: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker alternative stats

The UFC returns to Houston this Saturday with a middleweight rematch that will hopefully be a bit more compelling than the original. “The Last Stylebender,” Israel Adesanya, who just reportedly got paid even though no one really knows how much, defends his middleweight strap against Robert Whittaker, the former champ who’s clawed his way back […]

Paul Gift | February 11

UFC 269: Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier alternative stats

The final PPV event of what should end up as the best financial year in UFC history goes down this Saturday night in Las Vegas. Now that McGregor madness is on the sidelines for the moment, Dustin Poirier’s calendar has cleared up for him to get back to the business of fighting the best-of-the-best. And […]

Paul Gift | December 9

UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2 alternative stats

The second of two UFC numbered events in a row goes down this Saturday with UFC 268 offering an impressive main card we unfortunately have to start paying for again. Colby Covington enters the Octagon on an eight-fight win streak over everyone except the man standing across him. That man, defending welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, […]

Paul Gift | November 3

UFC 264 alternative stats

UFC 264 brings a capacity MMA crowd back to Las Vegas for the first time since Joanna and Weili put on a fight-of-the-year performance right before we all started learning about lockdowns, r-naught, and respiratory droplets. With an immediate rematch in the main event (even though it’s a McGregor fight), our focus will shift to […]

Paul Gift | July 8

UFC 261: Weili Zhang vs. Rose Namajunas alternative stats

Fans? What’s it like to have fans? UFC 261 goes down Saturday night in Jacksonville to remind us of the good ol’ days when those who love the sport of MMA would spend their hard-earned money to sit in the same proximity as combatants engaged in a cage fight. With a stacked main card including […]

Paul Gift | April 23

UFC 259: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya alternative stats

Three belts will on the line this Saturday night at UFC 259 – COVID willing – for just the seventh time in the UFC’s 20-year history under the Zuffa banner. In the main event, middleweight champion Israel Adesanya moves up 20 pounds to challenge Jan Blachowicz in the first defense of his light heavyweight strap. […]

Paul Gift | March 2

UFC 258: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns alternative stats

The UFC brings its tentpole shows back to Vegas tomorrow when Zuffa-undefeated welterweight champion Kamaru Usman headlines UFC 258 against challenger Gilbert Burns who hasn’t lost since moving up to welterweight in 2019 and most recently cruised to a 50-45/44 victory over former champ Tyron Woodley. As former training partners, these two should be intimately […]

Paul Gift | February 12

UFC 257: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2 alternative stats

You know it’s a Conor McGregor fight week when a shirtless arrival video is making the news on a Monday. UFC 257 goes down this Saturday night and the alternative stats will be singularly focused this week: Poirier vs. McGregor, the rematch. WATCH LIVE! UFC 257 – ‘MCGREGOR VS. POIRIER 2’: SUPER FIGHT! – PLUS: […]

Paul Gift | January 19

UFC 256: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno alternative stats

It’s déjà vu in Vegas on Saturday as UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo gets set to headline two pay-per-view events in a row, with only three weeks rest, against an upstart challenger in Brandon Moreno who went from cut to UFC title challenger in the span of just four fights, and also happens to be […]

Paul Gift | December 8

UFC 254: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje alternative stats

The UFC closes out its second stint on Fight Island during the pandemic era with a special 2pm ET main card start time this Saturday. In what may now be a more anticipated matchup than Tony Ferguson, lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov returns to Abu Dhabi to defend his strap against an interim champ in Justin […]

Paul Gift | October 20

UFC 253: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa alternative stats

The UFC heads back to Fight Island this Saturday for a five-week stint with some seriously fun fights on the menu (see Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen), culminating in the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov on Oct. 24 at UFC 254. DON’T MISS UFC 254 – ‘KHABIB VS. GAETHJE’ & WHITTAKER VS CANNONIER – October 24th., […]

Paul Gift | September 22

UFC 252: Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3 alternative stats

The UFC is back in Vegas this week for the second pandemic PPV show to be held at its Apex facility, and boy is its headliner a doozy. Whether or not you believe the winner should be considered the best heavyweight in UFC history, it’s one hell of a matchup. The current champ, Stipe Miocic, […]

Paul Gift | August 11

UFC 251: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal alternative stats

Fight Island time is almost upon us. Please face-punching gods, throw us a bone in these trying coronavirus times and let this lovely UFC 251 main card stay intact. I love a good deal and the value per dollar of this PPV show, on paper, is impressive. DON’T MISS UFC 251 – ‘USMAN VS. MASVIDAL’ […]

Paul Gift | July 7

UFC 250: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer alternative stats

There’s only one more day until the women’s GOAT – and possibly overall MMA GOAT – Amanda Nunes brings joy to our fight lives with damage inside a locked cage. It’s UFC Pandemic Show #4 and the promotion’s come home to Nevada and an empty Apex facility to keep us entertained on a quasi-quarantine Saturday […]

Paul Gift | June 5

UFC 249: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje alternative stats

We’ve got live sports again! The UFC throws its fight entertainment hat back into the ring this Saturday with a stacked card, quickly followed by two more shows to remind us of the pre-virus fight-overload days. DON’T MISS ‘UFC 249 ‘GAETHJE VS. FERGUSON’ Stream all the fights broadcast LIVE — don’t miss a single second […]

Paul Gift | May 8

UFC 248: Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero win probabilities and possible bets

The win probabilities for UFC 248’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the Adesanya-Romero and Zhang-Jedrzejczyk headlining matchups, see Tuesday’s piece. BE SURE […]

Paul Gift | March 7

Accuracy, volume, even power!? Adesanya has Romero out-gunned according to UFC 248 alternative stats

UFC 248 goes down Saturday night in Las Vegas and with it the first title defenses for two of the promotion’s newer champions. BE SURE TO WATCH ‘UFC 248 – ‘ADESANYA VS. ROMERO & WEILI VS. JOANNA’ Stream all the fights broadcast LIVE — don’t miss a single second of face-punching action! Plus, you get […]

Paul Gift | March 3

UFC 247: Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes win probabilities and possible bets

The win probabilities for UFC 247’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the Jones-Reyes and Shevchenko-Chookagian main and co-main event matchups, see Tuesday’s […]

Paul Gift | February 8

UFC 247: Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes alternative stats

The UFC holds its first double-title event, or even single-title, of 2020 this Saturday at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX when Jon Jones puts his light heavyweight belt on the line against the undefeated challenger Dominick Reyes and Valentina Shevchenko defends her flyweight strap against the #1 contender, and prohibitive underdog, Katlyn Chookagian. Only […]

Paul Gift | February 4

UFC 246: Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone win probabilities and possible bets

The win probabilities for UFC 246’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the McGregor-Cerrone main event matchup, see Tuesday’s piece. Watch ‘UFC 246 […]

Paul Gift | January 18

UFC 246: Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone alternative stats

The UFC is finally back from holiday vacation and about to kick off the new year with two PPV shows in three weeks with three sure-fire future hall of famers in the four headliner spots. Watch ‘UFC 246 – ‘MCGREGOR VS, COWBOY’ Stream all the fights broadcast LIVE — don’t miss a single second of […]

Paul Gift | January 14

UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington win probabilities and possible bets

The win probabilities for UFC 245’s eight qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the inaugural BMF belt matchup, see Wednesday’s piece. Watch ‘UFC 245 […]

Paul Gift | December 14

UFC 245: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington alternative stats

UFC 245 goes down this Saturday night in Vegas where for just the fifth time in 471 documented UFC events, three championship belts will be on the line. Watch ‘UFC 245 – ‘USMAN VS COVINGTON’. ‘HOLLOWAY VS VOLKANOVSKI’ & ‘NUNES VS DE RANDAMIE’ Stream all the fights broadcast LIVE — don’t miss a single second […]

Paul Gift | December 11