What’d you get for Christmas? Was it everything you dreamed it would be? If you didn’t like your presents, have no fear, the UFC has us covered. Well, I guess since we still have to buy the UFC 182 pay-per-view, their only real present was that $10 e-mail coupon but whatever. We get to see Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier go at it for real! Makes me giddy just thinking about it.
The co-main event is no joke either with Donald Cerrone on a five-fight win streak in his 10 millionth Octagon appearance since 2012 and Myles Jury undefeated since TUF and ready to move up to the bigtime in the lightweight division.
Six fights have good data and most have a clear statistical favorite so we don’t even have to mess with much of that 50/50 nonsense this week. As always, see the notes at the bottom for precise definitions of the statistics employed and read the introductory article for an explanation/reminder of how this works.
Jon Jones (63.4%) over Daniel Cormier (36.6%)
We’re about to be treated to five potential rounds of an extremely rare matchup of statistical dominance. Jones and Cormier are both effectively champions and undefeated in major MMA – screw that fake loss to Matt Hamill. On top of that, they’ve barely lost any rounds. Think for a second about how often situations like these come around. Then throw in that both guys legitimately seem to hate each other and keep trying to fight early and…Merry Christmas…Happy New Year…Happy Hanukah…Happy Festivus!
Here’s how crazy this matchup is. Jones’ closest statistical fight was against Jake O’Brien way back at UFC 100 before the “spinning elbow of death” put an end to not only O’Brien but his long and prosperous future in the UFC. If we measure statistical dominance on a 0 to 100 scale, Jones scored a 99.999 in his “loss” to Matt Hamill. Cormier’s closest statistical fight was his five-round ragdolling of Josh Barnett to win the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.
So where do we start with these guys? Both have made careers out of consistently exerting their will on the opposition. Cormier’s never been taken down in nine attempts while Jones has only been taken down once in 29 – Gustafsson got a distance takedown on him. Cormier’s the better takedown artist at distance (56% to Jones’ 32%) and upper body in the clinch (80% to Jones’ 75%) where both guys make about the same number of attempts. But Jones has completed 59% of his lower body clinch takedowns (to Cormier’s 50%) and been almost twice as active per five minutes (P5M) in position.
If they get to the ground, both guys pretty much always have control. In 24:52 on the ground, Cormier’s been controlled for exactly one second. And if it lasted one second, was it really that controlling? Jones has 37:56 on the ground and has been controlled for 35 seconds. That number seems huge next to Cormier’s but come on, 37:56 and 35 seconds? Is he fighting 5th graders because they beat him in a game show?
Who knows if they’ll go to the ground and who knows who will be in control. What happens when they’re in control is a bit more settled. Neither guy’s been swept and former Olympic wrestler Cormier has been better at keeping people from standing up. Opponents get 1.6 standups P5M with Cormier in control to Jones’ 2.8. While on top, both attack with power more often and more efficiently than average. Jones throws 35.1 power strikes P5M and lands 71% while Cormier throws 35.8 and lands 68%.
At distance, Cormier’s more active than average while Jones is less so, but Jones’ fighting style gets his opponents to be even less active than him. Jones’ efficiency is outstanding with 38% head jabs landed and 44% overall power shots landed (compared to 38% for Cormier and 35% average). Part of Jones’ power striking efficiency comes from his unpredictability and mixing things up with 4.5 attempts to the body P5M landing 58% (2.7 and 64% average) and 3.4 attempts to the legs landing 75% (2.9 and 78% average). Technically, this is below average efficiency to the body and legs, but these strikes land much more frequently than head shots so throwing more of them helps keep his opponent off guard and up his overall efficiency.
I wouldn’t call Cormier a headhunter since he goes to the body at an average rate. I’d call him more of a leg ignorer. He throws only 1.5 power leg strikes P5M (less than half as many as Jones) but the good news is he’s 32 for 32 – never missed in his nine fully documented fights.
Jones’ rate of dishing out damage is 19 to Cormier’s five but Cormier may have the knockdown power edge on Jones. Each guy knocks people down with 2% of their standing power head shots but Cormier’s knockdown rate from distance or the clinch off the cage is almost double at 0.28 to Jones’ 0.15.
Both are exceptional defensively at distance. Neither’s been knocked down and both get touched up far less than average, especially with power. An average light heavyweight eats 9.2 power shots P5M at distance. Jones eats 4.6 while Cormier eats a slightly worse 5.2. And both are crazy efficient defending their all-important craniums too. Cormier eats only 13% of power head shots while Jones eats 15% (an average light heavyweight is 25%).
Cormier’s defensive vulnerability, if anything, has been to his legs so it’ll be interesting to see if and how much Jones tries to capitalize. Cormier eats 82% of power legs strikes so don’t expect to see much Weidman-checking or sliding back.
Both guys spend a decent amount of time in the clinch but in very different ways. Cormier likes to beat you up on the cage and maybe take you down while Jones likes to clinch up off the cage and go to town. Both get controlled around 10-13% of the time but Cormier has control 70% of the time to Jones’ 46%. Jones spends 41% of his time clinched up in the middle of the Octagon blasting shots while Cormier’s at 20% and is generally pushing towards fence. This makes Cormier’s clinch defense appear better statistically, but it could easily be a function of his control. You don’t eat nearly as many shots when doing the pressing.
Cormier may not officially be a former Strikeforce champion, but after winning the Heavyweight Grand Prix, and doing so in pretty dominant fashion, he’s the champ in my book. So we’ve got a champion vs. champion matchup tonight and Strikeforce has more than proven to be no joke in the UFC.
The odds give it to Jones but I’ll be rooting for DC. Both guys are so good in so many ways that it’s kind of hard to analyze them statistically, but man will it be fun to watch!
Myles Jury (73.0%) over Donald Cerrone (27.0%)
Guilty. I man-love Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. His first meeting with Ben Henderson back in the WEC days is still one of my favorite fights of all time.
Does Cowboy get off to bad starts? It depends on how far back we look. In his last three fights, yes. He didn’t have good 1st rounds against Eddie Alvarez, Jim Miller, and Edson Barboza (up until the jab to RNC sequence). But what if we keep going back? Martins, no. Dunham, no. He had a horrible start with Rafael dos Anjos but is it a bad start when you straight get beat? Maybe the first two rounds were a bad start? KJ Noons, no. Anthony Pettis just beat him. Melvin Guillard, yes. Jeremy Stephens, no. Nate Diaz flat beat him. Siver, no. Oliveira, no. Rocha, no. Kelly, no.
Cowboy hasn’t consistently got off to bad starts in the UFC; it seems to be more of a recent phenomenon. Maybe it’s some randomness? That’s the great thing about MMA; we get the joy of dealing with small samples. Looking at his five most recent stoppage wins, he was statistically losing prior to the finish in two of them. That’s not to say he wouldn’t have pulled out a decision if the key head kick (Guillard) or jab (Barboza) hadn’t come, but he’s had to push through a few bad starts and has some lopsided losses on his record.
If you compared Cowboy’s 13 knockdowns to Jury’s two, you might say he’s got the power, but he’s also got a ton of cage time. Cowboy’s knockdown rate of 0.39 is great but only a little better than Jury’s 0.33, as is his 8.8 knockdown percent to Jury’s 6.9. Cowboy’s real advantage is in the “bust your face” and “make you bleed” departments. His damage rate is 24 to Jury’s 9 and percent is 4.4 to Jury’s 1.2.
The difference between these guys defensively at distance is enormous. Jury’s outstanding at protecting his head. He eats only 8% of head jabs and 9% of head power shots. But Cowboy loves attacking the legs, you say? Yes, yes he does. Cowboy throws almost twice as many power leg strikes as an average lightweight and lands 83%, but Jury’s defense is pretty damn good there too. A typical lightweight eats 77% of power leg shots; Jury eats only 47%. These are the statistical manifestations of being good at getting people to fight your fight.
On the flip side, Cowboy takes a ton of punishment, especially to his head. He eats 40% of head jabs and 31% of head power shots. The end result is Cowboy eats 7.4 overall head jabs P5M to Jury’s 0.7 and 6.9 head power shots to Jury’s 2.2. Sure they haven’t fought the same opponents, but that difference is enormous and probably serves at least a little to characterize their fighting styles and defensive abilities. The only things Cowboy does significantly better than average defensively are not get knocked down and not bleed. He gets touched up but doesn’t wear the physical manifestations too much.
Cowboy’s overall takedown defense isn’t exceptional. He’s slightly below average defending the key areas of distance and lower body clinch takedowns. It could be argued his takedown defense was bad in the WEC and has tightened up since joining the UFC. It could also be argued that he hasn’t faced too many UFC fighters with serious takedown skills. Rafael dos Anjos went a respectable 2-for-6. Vagner Rocha only went 1-for-7 but became predictable pretty early on after his legs got assaulted.
Jury’s takedowns are well-timed and active. He completes 57% of his takedown shots from distance (29% average) and attempts 50% more than average. He hasn’t yet missed a lower body takedown and attempts them a bit more than average. The result is he spends 2:05 of every five minutes on the ground and has control 85% of that time. Both guys are high level grapplers adept at avoiding and defending submissions so that likely won’t be an issue. But you can’t just hang out on the bottom. Cowboy doesn’t sweep well but he stands up better than average. Jury’s even better at keeping opponents down while also blasting power shots at a slightly better than average rate.
The model thinks Jury has a good chance of defending his head and legs from Cowboy’s kicks at distance, holding his own or better while standing and, if need be, getting the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. Jury’s shown himself to be a cerebral fighter who tailors his approach to the weaknesses in front of him. But then again, I love Cowboy.
Note: While Jury’s distance defense is exceptional almost everywhere, he’s “least good” at defending his body. Opponents throw 7.0 power body shots P5M and land 44% (3.9 and 58% average). Relative to his head and legs, opponents have been much more successful targeting Jury’s body. Might Cowboy’s shins find a home there? I can’t wait to find out.
Brad Tavares (53.2%) over Nate Marquardt (46.8%)
Kyoji Horiguchi (85.4%) over Louis Gaudinot (14.6%)
Gaudinot’s defense is pretty bad. He gets cracked everywhere, head, body and legs; he bleeds and gets knocked down. But he’s 2-for-2 with submissions. If Horiguchi can avoid the guillotine, he should be good to go here.
Hector Lombard (76.2%) over Josh Burkman (23.8%)
Burkman’s stats are old so do with this what you may. He’s very hittable, especially with power to the head, and Lombard kiiiiind of likes going for your head. Lombard has the “bust up your face” advantage and has never had his face busted up while Burkman’s a regular bleeder. Lombard’s also got way more knockdown power (rate and percent).
Burkman’s not good at distance takedowns while Lombard’s solid defending. Burkman’s a little better than average at clinch takedowns, but Lombard’s never been taken down from the clinch. On the ground, Lombard tends to be the controlling fighter.
All signs point to Lombard, but this is our glorious MMA fight game so we never really know for sure.
Evan Dunham (73.5%) over Rodrigo Damm (26.5%)
What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below and enjoy the fights!
Notes: Strike attempts are for an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Visible damage rate is per five minutes the fighter is not on his back. It’s hard to bust up someone’s face while lying on your back. Damage percentage is per power head strike landed. Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percentage is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard. A bout closeness measure towards zero means a fighter is in blowouts (win or lose) and towards 100 means he is in very close fights.
Paul is Bloody Elbow’s analytics writer. All mistakes are his own and they’ve been known to happen sometimes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.