Today’s piece is brought to you by the world’s worst person in sports! That’s right; Keith Olbermann ranks yours truly #1, worse than a marathon cheater, a random Instagram user and, by deduction, worse than Roger Goodell and Dana White. Lest you take his statistical prowess seriously, he thinks one of my analyses has “insufficient breadth” while citing a Wall Street Journal story instead of what was actually done.
But we’ve got bigger fish to fry with the top three fights of tomorrow’s UFC 180 fight card in Mexico City. Can Fabricio Werdum go from former UFC dropout to interim heavyweight champion? Can Mark Hunt make weight from 300 pounds on one month’s notice? Are Kevin Gastelum and Dennis Bermudez for real? UFC 180 may not appeal to the masses as it’s essentially a TUF Latin America fight card, but the top three fights are legit.
This piece was written on a beach in Cabo San Lucas where an informal poll of the locals found no one aware of the upcoming fights in Mexico City. For the sake of the UFC’s bank account, let’s hope this poll has insufficient breadth and get into the beatdown statistics. As always, see the notes at the bottom for precise definitions of the statistics employed and read the introductory article for an explanation/reminder of how this works.
Fabricio Werdum (60.1%) over Mark Hunt (39.9%)
Full disclosure: I train at Werdum Combat Team and am therefore very much biased towards Fabricio Werdum. However, the fight data and underlying statistical model don’t know who trains where nor do they care. Estimated win probabilities are what they are, and I’ll try to keep the discussion of the fight stats as neutral as possible……key word being “try.”
This analysis is based off each fighter’s documented performances in the UFC and Strikeforce. It captures all of Werdum’s professional fights since 2007 and all of Hunt’s since 2010.
Werdum’s overall standup game has improved dramatically in recent years thanks to his work with Master Rafael Cordeiro. He was knocked down four times in his first six UFC/Strikeforce bouts but hasn’t been knocked down at all in his five most recent Octagon appearances. On the other hand, Werdum’s only knocked down Mike Russow while Hunt’s been a knockdown machine sending Chris Tuchscherer, Cheick Kongo, Stefan Struve, Bigfoot Silva and Roy Nelson to the canvas at one point or another. Put another way, outside of his 1st round submission loss, Hunt’s knocked down everyone he’s faced except Ben Rothwell and Junior dos Santos.
Interestingly, Hunt’s knockdown rate is only 15 percent better than average while his knockdown percentage is exactly average. In seven fights, Hunt’s spent over 54 minutes at distance. Five of those fights lasted 6:40 or longer. Hunt battles and grinds to wear his opponent out and then get knockdowns and knockouts. Of his five knockdowns, only Cheick Kongo came in the 1st round. Tuchscherer and Nelson came in the 2nd and Struve and Bigfoot were in the 3rd.
Hunt gets into scraps at distance. His head jab and power strike attempts are roughly average and he lands at a 42-44 percent rate. His opponents strike him back at a 39 percent rate but make fewer power attempts and therefore land less.
Werdum’s world class ground game is well-known but his clinch and distance games are no joke either. He spends most of his time at distance – 3:20 of every 5-minute round since returning to the UFC – mainly because opponents don’t go for takedowns (0.1 attempts per five minutes, P5M, at distance versus a 1.3 average and 1.7 attempts P5M in the clinch versus a 3.3 average), he’s not great at taking people down and they try to get the hell out of there and standup when he has control on the ground (opponents get 2.4 standups P5M versus a 1.7 heavyweight average).
Werdum lands 10.6 power shots P5M at distance while only eating 6.6. His head jab and power strike defense are both above average with opponents’ landing only 22 and 27 percent, respectively. This is important since the UFC version of Mark Hunt has been a headhunter, attempting 24.1 power shots to the head, 1.5 to the body and 1.8 to the legs P5M. Werdum tends to mix things up better (16.5 to the head, 2.4 to the body and 3.6 to the legs) but is also less active. Consider both fighters’ most recent 5-round battles – Werdum against Travis Browne and Hunt against Bigfoot Silva. Werdum landed 27 power shots to the head, 16 to the body and 14 to the legs while Hunt landed 46 power shots to the head but only 3 to the body and 2 to the legs.
Since it’s highly unlikely Hunt will try to take Werdum down, we can focus on Werdum’s takedown offense and Hunt’s defense. A typical heavyweight lands 27 percent of his takedown shots at distance. Werdum only lands 19 percent while Hunt defends 82 percent so a distance takedown appears unlikely. But Werdum loves the clinch and uses it to land 18.2 power shots P5M to his opponent’s 15.4 (Hunt lands 7.9 power shots while receiving 15.8), and to attempt 4.5 takedowns versus a 3.3 average. Werdum’s less successful than the average heavyweight but he takes the approach of a pickup artist in a bar: You only need one – in this case to take his opponent’s ass to the ground and put him in extreme jeopardy.
On the ground, Werdum strikes at an average rate and makes 33 percent more submission attempts than average, completing half of them. He has control 49 percent of the time and takes very little damage while being controlled as his opponents have to be extremely cautious and are often dealing with a submission threat (Werdum’s controlling opponents attempt 18.4 power strikes whereas Hunt’s attempt 28.2). The downside to Werdum’s strategy of looking for submissions and sweeps from his back is he’s losing the fight if they don’t come.
“Vai Cavalo” should take the strap by submission or decision (both are about equally likely). Hunt’s best chance is to keep the fight standing at distance and capitalize on his power volume or, of course, connect with a knockout blow as the fight grinds on.
Notable stat: While Werdum only has control on the ground 49 percent of the time, 60 percent of his control time is with half guard or better.
Jake Ellenberger (50.6%) over Kelvin Gastelum (49.4%)
Kelvin Gastelum (51.3%) over Jake Ellenberger (48.7%)
No, that’s not a mistake. I run the model two different ways and just barely get a different predicted winner each time. This fight is essentially a predicted coin flip so we’ll let a visual examination of the fight stats be the tie breaker.
At distance, Gastelum is statistically a little bit better at everything except for knockdowns and damage. He jabs to the head almost three times as much as Ellenberger and lands 37 percent to Ellenberger’s 29 percent. He throws and lands more head, body, and leg power shots than Ellenberger, but his opponents do the same back.
Ellenberger’s advantages are in power and control. His knockdown rates and percentages are 2 ½ – 3 ½ times better than Gastelum and he’s never been damaged. At distance, neither fighter has ever been taken down and both are above average getting takedowns. But the clinch is a different story.
Ellenberger spends only 0:19 P5M in the clinch as he’s attempting 7.2 takedowns P5M (versus a 5.0 welterweight average) and completing better than average. He completes 88 percent of his lower body takedown attempts and Gastelum is only average defending takedowns in the clinch. On offense, Gastelum is a different animal. He spends 0:48 P5M in the clinch and only attempts 0.7 takedowns P5M, instead choosing to bang it out to the tune of 20.2 power head strikes and 13.7 power body strikes, where he’s very efficient with 86 percent accuracy. Ellenberger actually has a higher clinch striking rate, but he’s using it to set up his bread-and-butter lower body takedown (and sometimes upper body).
On the ground, Ellenberger has control 75 percent of the time to Gastelum’s 49 percent. Watch out for Gastelum’s standups (4.1 P5M compared to a 2.0 average) and Ellenberger’s sweeps (4.25 times more than average and Gastelum gets swept 8.5 times more than average – although 3 of his 4 reversals were by Uriah Hall). Pure submissions shouldn’t be much of a factor as neither fighter has ever been submitted, Ellenberger’s never got a tap and – if memory serves – Gastelum got his only tap by way of rattling Brian Meloncon’s brain first.
Will Ellenberger’s power and control win the day? If he can’t connect with Gastelum, can he get him in the clinch to the cage where Gastelum turns from an excellent takedown defender into an average one? Ellenberger’s on a 2-fight losing streak, but there’s no shame in losing to Rory Mac and Robbie Lawler. The model has it split, but I’m going with the old dog, Jake Ellenberger (50.6%).
Dennis Bermudez (74.9%) over Ricardo Lamas (25.1%)
This fight should be about Bermudez’s volume and ability to control position. At distance, Bermudez throws 48.0 power strikes and lands 34 percent compared to Lamas’ 24.0 and 30 percent. He out-jabs Lamas and has a 3 times better knockdown rate (although their knockdown percentages are similar).
The takedown game is where things get interesting. Bermudez is above average in the primary takedown areas of shots at distance and lower body in the clinch, and he’s super-active. He attempts 4.5 takedown shots P5M and completes 36 percent (1.5 and 28% featherweight averages) while Lamas defends below average at 67%. In the clinch, Bermudez attempts 6.7 lower body takedowns P5M and completes 56 percent (4.2 and 44% averages) while Lamas’ defense is very much sub-par at 36 percent.
Once on the ground, Bermudez has control 92 percent of the time and he ground-and-pounds to the tune of 22.0 landed power strikes P5M to Lamas’ 13.4. Both fighters like going for submissions but aren’t great at finishing. Both guys spend a lot of time in each position so expect this fight to go anywhere, and look for Bermudez’s volume, takedowns and control to win the day.
Do you have a different opinion? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Enjoy the fights!
Notes: Strike attempts are for an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Visible damage rate is per five minutes the fighter is not on his back. It’s hard to bust up someone’s face while lying on your back. Damage percentage is per power head strike landed. Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percentage is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard. A bout closeness measure towards zero means a fighter is in blowouts (win or lose) and towards 100 means he is in very close fights.
Paul Gift is an economics professor and Bloody Elbow analytics writer. All mistakes are his own and they’ve been known to happen sometimes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.