Isn’t it funny how a three-week layoff from the UFC feels like an eternity these days? October 4th, we barely remember you. Well the long offseason is over and it’s time to get back to work and crunch some beatdown numbers.
UFC 179 doesn’t exactly make the wallet jump out on the table and dance, but Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes 2.0 running it back is legit must-see-PPV, in said wallet’s opinion. Mr. Wonderful and Glover go at it in the co-main event. Be honest and raise your hand if you’re not saying to yourself, “Come on, Phil, don’t let me down!” And we’ve got Darren Elkins vs. Lucas Martins in the #4 spot. People love to talk about Elkins’ grappling and wrestling skills but always leave out his best skill: Bleeding. And who doesn’t like seeing the Octagon get a little messy?
Three main event fights and one prelim have good data, so let’s dig in. As always, see the notes at the bottom for precise definitions of the statistics employed and read the introductory article for an explanation/reminder of how this works.
Jose Aldo (53.2%) over Chad Mendes (46.8%)
Since getting knee’d out by Aldo at UFC 142 almost three years ago, Mendes has gone beast mode against the likes of Cody McKenzie, Yaotzin Meza, Darren Elkins, Clay Guida and Nik Lentz. Meanwhile Aldo’s dispatched Frankie Edgar, The Korean Zombie and Ricardo Lamas. Aldo’s three opponents were slightly better, with all currently ranked #6 or higher, while the highest-ranked opponent Mendes took out was #9 Lentz. So here’s Mendes’ chance to prove he’s worthy – Nova União versus Team Alpha Male for the strap…Part 6.
Jose Aldo is a man of many talents and one of his best is keeping the fight where he has an advantage. Both Chad Mendes and the average featherweight spend about 2:30 of every five minute round at distance. For Aldo it’s 3:33. He only spends 30 seconds in the clinch (61% being controlled), not because he’s taking people down or immediately getting taken down like some fighters, but because he channels his inner Demi Lovato and breaks free.
At distance, Aldo has the edge with activity and mixing it up. He throws 17.8, 3.2 and 5.3 respective power head, body and leg strike attempts per five minutes in the position (P5M), landing at an overall rate of 45 percent. Meanwhile, Mendes is more of a headhunter – 18.1 of his 22.1 power attempts are to the head – and counter striker who jabs at only 1/3 the rate of an average featherweight. Both fighters have better than average accuracy and lower than average volume. The striking trend for the day will be that both fighters are good, but Aldo’s a little bit better.
Both fighters have excellent strike defense…but Aldo has been better. Fighters land 18 percent of their head jabs on Aldo, 22 percent on Mendes and 28 percent on the average featherweight. For power strikes, 16 percent land on Aldo (and only 9% to the head), 21 percent on Mendes and 35 percent on the average featherweight. So at the end of the day, Aldo eats 3.3 head jabs and 3.3 power shots P5M at distance to Mendes’ 4.2 and 6.4. Both sets of numbers are great, but Aldo’s are better.
Aldo’s biggest weakness has been upper body takedowns in the clinch. Opponents are 2 of 7 for a 29 percent success rate. It’s hard to call this a weakness since the typical featherweight gets taken down by 71 percent of upper body attempts but when we look elsewhere, Aldo has only gone to the canvas by 2 of 42 (5%) takedown shots from distance and 2 of 23 (9%) lower body takedown attempts from the clinch.
Mendes’ takedowns have been superb, capitalizing on accuracy and volume. Who can forget the way he stole the Cub Swanson fight by landing five strikes in the 3rd round to Swanson’s 35? It’s because he also happened to have three takedowns and 3:44 of ground control.
Mendes’ number of takedown attempts from distance and their accuracy rate are both more than double the featherweight average. His lower body takedown attempts and accuracy are almost double the average. But he stands out for his upper body attempts. Mendes attempts 6.7 upper body takedowns P5M in the clinch and lands 56 percent. The average featherweight lands 71 percent but only attempts 0.8. So Mendes is much more of a machine attacking Aldo’s “weakness” and still has a high success rate.
When we look back at their first meeting, Aldo showed he wasn’t scared of the takedown by sending seven of his 18 power strike attempts to the legs. Interestingly, the head striker Mendes changed things up and also attacked the legs. 18 of his 28 overall strike attempts were to the legs (although some were knees to the leg while in the clinch). Perhaps the biggest stat was that Mendes attempted seven takedowns in 4:59 of fight time and landed none. Aldo stuffed three shots from distance, three to the upper body and one lower body takedown.
Will that be the story of this fight? Will Aldo neutralize Mendes’ striking and countering while keeping the fight standing at distance? Their knockdown rates and percentages are roughly the same, although all of Mendes’ knockdowns have come in his last five fights. Mendes’ newfound punches pack a lot of power, but he’s going against someone who’s incredibly hard to hit, especially to the head. Both fighters are good, but Aldo should be a little better.
Side Note: Endurance is hard to quantify, but Mendes’ endurance stats appear to decline in the 3rd round whereas Aldo’s only get bad in the 5th. Each can be caveated by noting that Mendes has never fought past the 3rd round and it’s not clear whether Aldo’s cardio actually fades in the 5th or if he takes his foot off the gas while knowing he’s ahead.
Glover Teixeira (56.7%) over Phil Davis (43.3%)
Let’s get right to the point. Get this fight to the clinch, Phil, and get it to the ground, stat. What I mean by that is Davis is not a good striker, has never knocked anyone down, much less out, and he’s not a good takedown artist from distance.
Davis lands 5.3 power strikes P5M at distance to Teixeira’s 11.7. What’s worse, Davis is really bad at hitting the most important area – the head. He lands 13 percent of his power head strikes for a total of 2.7 P5M to Teixeira’s 28 percent and 9.5 total. Davis is statistically better at striking defense but that’s probably because he disengages so much whereas Teixeira stands and trades.
Davis is 8 of 31 (26%) on his takedown shots from distance. Compare that to the clinch where he’s 3-for-3 (100%) on upper body takedowns and 11 of 26 (42%) to the lower body. This is where things could get interesting. Teixeira’s clinch takedown defense hasn’t really been tested. He’s spent 9:40 in the clinch and 6:18 being controlled against the cage but his opponents have attempted no upper body takedowns and are only 1-for-2 in lower body attempts – and the one that landed was by Jon Jones.
Both fighters generally have control on the ground (88% for Davis and 97% for Teixeira). And Teixeira subscribes to the Chuck Liddell philosophy of being on bottom – get the hell up immediately! Teixeira’s been controlled on the ground for 23 seconds and has two standups during that time for a 25.6 standup rate P5M (over 10 times the light heavyweight average). Davis’ only saving grace is that he’s better than average at holding fighters down on the ground and not getting reversed.
The numbers give the edge to Teixeira, but let’s just hope for an entertaining scrap.
Random Fact: Teixeira’s only attempted one power leg strike in over 33 minutes of fight time at distance. This may actually be more of a relevant fact than a random one since Davis probably needs some takedowns to win this fight and Teixeira tends to keep his feet planted on the ground.
Darren Elkins (63.8%) over Lucas Martins (36.2%)
What’s the over under on how soon Elkins will start to bleed? Put me down for the under. What’s the money line on whether Elkins will bleed? Put me down for bleed. These are important questions. Elkins’ rate of taking damage is three times the featherweight average while his percent is five times the average. What’s more, Martins busts up faces at a rate and percent that’s 2 – 2 ½ times the average.
Martins likes to stand and strike while Elkins strikes to set up takedowns. So who will win? Martins has never been taken down at distance but no one’s ever tried. In the clinch, opponents are 2 of 7 on takedowns overall and 2 of 5 to the lower body. This just so happens to be where Elkins does his best work. Elkins attempts 10.7 lower body takedowns P5M and lands a respectable 38 percent. That’s about 2 ½ times the typical featherweight’s rate. Elkins does this by throwing 74.6 head strike attempts P5M at distance (compared to a 47.3 featherweight average). He doesn’t land accurately but that’s not the point. He sets up takedown shots, lower body takedowns or pushes to the cage for subsequent lower body takedowns.
Elkins isn’t a striking slouch but his edge here appears to be his bread-and-butter grappling game and Martins apparent lower body takedown defense problems. Don’t sleep on a Martins knockout, though.
Wilson Reis (59.3%) over Scott Jorgensen (40.8%)
Do you have different opinions? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. Enjoy the fights!
Notes: Strike attempts are for an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Visible damage rate is per five minutes the fighter is not on his back. It’s hard to bust up someone’s face while lying on your back. Damage percent is per power head strike landed. Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percent is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard. A bout closeness measure towards zero means a fighter is in blowouts (win or lose) and towards 100 means he is in very close fights.
Paul Gift is an economics professor and Bloody Elbow analytics writer. All mistakes are his own, and they’ve been known to happen sometimes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.