UFC 178, the card that could have been. Imagine if Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier were headlining tomorrow’s fight card. Imagine the pure, unadulterated joy. Instead we’ve got Chris Cariaso for the flyweight title.
It feels a little insulting, but I’d watch Demetrious Johnson fight all day, any day, every day. The once killer fight card has turned into just a damn good fight card – one that’s still so good the arguable bantamweight champion of the world, Dominick Cruz, is on the FOX Sports 1 prelims.
There are seven fights with good data so let’s get down to business. As always, see the notes at the bottom for precise definitions of the statistics employed and read the introductory article for an explanation/reminder of how this works.
Demetrious Johnson (70.6%) over Chris Cariaso (29.4%)
Normally the main event gets the bulk of attention in these pieces but we’re making an exception today. Does anyone think Cariaso has a chance in hell of winning? Of course we do because there’s always a chance! It’s not a great one but it’s a higher percentage than I would have guessed.
Both guys have closer fights than average, although DJ’s recent performances have him firmly in the pound-for-pound discussion while Cariaso’s three-fight win streak has had some closer calls. This fight can essentially be dissected into two distinct areas: at distance and everywhere else.
At distance we could have ourselves a scrap. In the clinch and on the ground, it’s not nearly as close. DJ has control in the clinch 31 percent of the time to Cariaso’s 17 percent. He lands 30.7 power shots per five minutes (P5M) to Cariaso’s 19.1, and twice as many head power shots. DJ gets controlled in the clinch 45 percent of the time to Cariaso’s 68 percent. Both go for takedowns at about the same rate but DJ lands 67 percent of his lower body takedown attempts to Cariaso’s 40 percent. He’s also got better than average clinch takedown defense – although it surprised me to learn that Cariaso defends 57 percent of lower body takedown attempts (compared to DJ’s 63% and the flyweight average of 53%)
On the ground, Cariaso’s twice as active as DJ when in control but DJ stands up at a rate of 4.0 P5M to Cariaso’s 2.9. DJ hasn’t been an active submission artist but has been effective finishing two of four submission attempts. Meanwhile, Cariaso’s been finished by two of five submission attempts, only finished one of 11 and DJ’s never been submitted.
At distance, their striking accuracy percentages are pretty similar. But accuracy is one thing and volume is another. Cariaso’s the voluminous fighter. He lands 14.0 power strikes P5M to DJ’s 8.6 while getting hit with 7.5 shots to DJ’s 6.5. But DJ has a knack for making his opponents fight his fight. He’s feinting, sticking, moving and controlling the distance. This technically shows up in the statistics as inactivity but can also be seen as imposing his will, getting his opponent to be equally inactive throwing strikes and helping DJ’s defense be better than Cariaso’s in all target areas. And then there are takedowns. Cariaso’s landed one distance takedown in 76 minutes of action (17% completion rate) compared to DJ’s 25 in 105 minutes (43% completion rate).
At 29.4 percent, Cariaso’s got a better chance than I would have guessed. But it’s still a little sad when the main event is the fifth or sixth ranked fight on the “must see” list for the evening.
Random Fact: In 14 fights and over 184 minutes of fight time, Chris Cariaso has never knocked down an opponent nor been knocked down himself.
Donald Cerrone vs. Eddie Alvarez
I’m so pumped for this fight! Either this fight or McGregor vs. Poirier in the #3 spot is the effective main event. Which one? Who cares, they’re both awesome!
Unfortunately, there’s no analysis for this fight since Alvarez is a rookie according to the fight data – i.e., he’s about to make his first appearance in a Zuffa event. Some Cerrone stats to look out for: His damage and knockdown rates are twice the lightweight average and his percentages are quadruple. At distance, he eats just as many shots as he lands which is always exciting for us fans. He spends very little time in the clinch but when he does he’s being controlled 52 percent of the time while controlling 13 percent. His submission attempt rate is more than twice the lightweight average (3.8 P5M to 1.8) and he’s a 50 percent better finisher (9 of 30 overall).
Just for fun, I ran the model with Donald Cerrone against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Nurms comes out at 81.7 percent to win.
Conor McGregor (67.6%) over Dustin Poirier (32.4%)
It kills me to write this since I love Poirier so much. Alas, the data is what it is and Conor McGregor has never lost a round in the UFC! True, he’s only had five rounds of action and the model attempts to control for the quality of opponents but why quibble over trifling little details. Regardless, we should have a fun fight tomorrow and the “quiet little hillbilly” will be McGregor’s first and toughest test.
You tend to get some weird statistics when a guy’s only had a few fights, especially when two of them were quick stoppages. For instance, McGregor’s never missed a power strike from the clinch! He’s 2-for-2. He’s 100 percent on his clinch takedowns! He’s 1-for-1. He lands 80 percent of his distance takedowns! He’s 4-of-5 and they all came against the same opponent, Max Holloway.
Another somewhat unusual stat is that McGregor is crazy active at distance. He attempts 66.9 power strikes P5M to Poirier’s 41.0 and the featherweight average of 31.1 while landing 34 percent. I’m guessing his activity rate will decline over time to more reasonable levels but Poirier’s might be more interesting. He’s got over 48 minutes at distance and he throws 41.0 power strikes P5M while landing 44 percent. He tends to hunt for the head and attack the legs, not going to the body very much. Thus far, McGregor’s been a head and body man, not spending much time touching the legs.
My esteemed BE colleagues point out Poirier’s holes on defense and they’re right in two ways. Opponent’s land 30 percent of their head jabs, 29, 59, and 82 percent of their respective power head, body and leg strikes on Poirier, all better than average. They also throw more volume, possibly due to the higher pace he sets. So at the end of the day, Poirier gets whacked with 8.5 head jabs P5M (0.5 for McGregor and 6.4 average) and 14.3 power shots (13.4 for McGregor and 10.8 average).
Poirier’s not a takedown artist at distance and he’s average in the clinch and average on defense. In a limited sample, McGregor’s been excellent at takedowns and solid at keeping his opponents from standing up or sweeping. He’s also been in half guard or better 38 percent of the time on the ground. This is a pretty limited sample so it should be fun getting better information on his true abilities tomorrow night. In the immortal words of Bart Scott, “Can’t wait!”
Tim Kennedy (51.4%) over Yoel Romero (48.6%)
At distance, these guys look very similar. Neither knows how to throw a jab to the head, with 4.7 attempts P5M for Kennedy and 3.6 for Romero (18.0 middleweight average). Their power strike attempts are similar but Romero’s more accurate, landing 51 percent to Kennedy’s 37 percent. Since Kennedy’s strike defense is better, Romero basically lands 2.2 more power shots P5M but also eats 2.2 more. Romero has a 3x higher knockdown rate and percent but gets knocked down at a 3x higher rate and 6x higher percent.
Romero’s never been damaged and busts up people’s faces at an average rate. (Technically, Romero’s 3rd round rib-shellacking of Derek Brunson back in January didn’t count as damage, so one could argue there’s a bit of measurement error in his data.) Meanwhile, Kennedy hasn’t been able to damage a fly and seems to have a leaky face. He gets damaged 50-200 percent more than average.
Both guys have spent exactly 49 seconds in the clinch P5M. Both guys have control about 60 percent of them time while Kennedy gets controlled a little bit more (25% to Romero’s 17%). Both attempt around six lower body takedowns P5M and land 40-46 percent. Kennedy’s clinch takedown defense has been outstanding while Romero has shown some vulnerability only defending 33 percent of lower body attempts. On the other hand, Romero’s clinch strike defense has been solid. He faces 13.1 attempts P5M (14.9 for Kennedy) and only gets hit by 4.2 shots (11.1 for Kennedy)
This fight has many similarities with a few key differences. By the numbers, it’s pretty much a coin flip. Since we have to pick someone, Kennedy has an ever so slight edge which seems to be coming from observed control factors. If you think Romero’s improvement negates that, take it the other way. Both guys insta-standup and have people standup on them more than average, so don’t look for much of a ground war.
Dominick Cruz (63.4%) over Takeya Mizugaki (36.6%)
It feels like forever since Cruz last fought. Even knowing he hasn’t been in the Octagon in three years, it’s still hard to believe Cruz’s last fight was a pretty solid working-over of a particular bantamweight named Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. DJ’s gone on to do amazing things while “The Dominator” has been on the shelf and on our TV screens, and is finally healthy enough to be back in the game. Let’s hope his injury woes are behind him because Cruz vs. Dillashaw looks like a crazy-fun fight.
Statistically, fighters tend to show a drop off after sitting out 12 months or more. That seems to be the magic number, but Cruz still looks to have some juju working in his favor. He’s 63 percent to win because that’s how strong a fighter he was during his reign of terror. Since being choked out by Urijah Faber in 2007, he hasn’t statistically come close to losing a fight (closest was the Faber rematch in 2011), and his four bantamweight title defenses are the most we’ve seen in the UFC/WEC era.
As of this writing, the line on Cruz to win outright is -500 and to win by decision is -165. Color me confused as to who would want to bet Cruz, “The Decision Master,” to win and not take the -165 decision line, especially considering that Mizugaki hasn’t shown any serious TKO or submission deficiencies.
Cruz and Mizugaki both have very similar head jab and power strike volumes at distance. So Cruz must be more accurate, right? Nope, it’s Mizugaki. And both guys mix up to the body and legs in the typical manner.
Cruz’s magic is in spending a lot of time at distance and getting people to miss. He spends 3:12 there P5M compared to 2:23 for Mizugaki and 2:31 for the average bantamweight. Because of Cruz’s ability to control the exchanges, opponents land only 20 percent of their head jabs and 11, 45 and 49 percent of their respective head, body and leg power shots (compared to 32, 22, 55, and 88 percent for Mizugaki). The net result is that Cruz dishes out 6.9 head jabs and 10.6 power strikes P5M while only eating 3.8 and 5.4 in return. Combine this with excellent takedown offense, outstanding takedown defense, 97 percent ground time control and two standups and two sweeps in 1:05 of ground time being controlled, and that, my friends, is a recipe for win after win after win after win.
The real questions, of course, are has he returned to his pre-injury physical abilities and what effect has the three year layoff had? Please let the answers be “yes” and “not much” and please let Dillashaw be on the horizon. Please, fight gods.
Jorge Masvidal (57.1%) over James Krause (42.9%)
Stephen Thompson (71.6%) over Patrick Cote (28.4%)
Brian Ebersole (61.0%) over John Howard (39.0%)
Do you have a different opinion than the MMA computer? Make it known below and enjoy the fights!
Notes: Strike attempts are for an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Visible damage rate is per five minutes the fighter is not on his back. It’s hard to bust up someone’s face while lying on your back. Damage percent is per power head strike landed. Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percent is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard. A bout closeness measure towards zero means a fighter is in blowouts (win or lose) and towards 100 means he is in very close fights.
Are there any fight questions you’d like analyzed? Send them to [email protected] or @MMAanalytics on Twitter. Fight data provided by FightMetric.