UFC 305 tensions have been building all week and fight night is finally almost upon us as Dricus Du Plessis looks to put his feud with Israel Adesanya to bed after months of heated drama between the two.
Israel Adesanya is looking to become the 185lb champion for the third time when he takes on South African champ, Dricus Du Plessis in a highly anticipated main event, with flyweight contenders clashing in the co-main event.
‘The Last Stylebender’s’ 11-month hiatus from fighting has of course left fans wondering what he will look like in his return, with his last performance against Sean Strickland leaving a lot to be desired.
With a huge night on the cards in Perth, Western Australia, let’s take a look at our main card predictions.
Li Jingliang (19-8) vs Carlos Prates (19-6) – Welterweight bout
Despite there having been a pre-fight press conference this Friday, Li Jingliang wasn’t in attendance and therefore, still didn’t get to show off his suit. If you know, you know.
The 36-year-old hasn’t fought since UFC 279 in September 2022 and is looking to return after almost two years away with a rebound win. His loss came against Daniel Rodriguez, however, the fight was put together in the final hour after his original opponent, Tony Ferguson was swapped following a weigh-in fiasco.
He faces the tough task of beating highlight striker, Carlos Prates in the main card opener. Although ‘The Leech’ has never been knocked out in 27 professional fights, Prates boasts a 74% knockout rate.
There is no doubt that the Brazilian is the far more comfortable striker, and is far faster. Unfortunately for Jingliang, I think he’s in for a rough night.
Prediction: Carlos Prates via TKO
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Tai Tuivasa (15-7) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5) – Heavyweight bout
Tai Tuivasa is the latest heavyweight to experience a gutting losing streak, currently winless in four fights. Despite that, ‘Bam Bam’ is back fighting in front of his home crowd and that will likely give him a huge push coming Saturday night.
Standing opposite the hard-hitting Australian is kickboxer, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who in his last outing returned to the win column with a round-four finish over Shamil Gaziev.
Although ‘Bigi Boy’ is the more composed and technical striker, I’m putting a lot of stock into the fact Tuivasa is back fighting in front of the Australian crowd. That may be extremely naive, but he is a fighter who completely thrives off the raucous crowd, and he will do everything it takes to not let them down for the fifth time in a row.
Prediction: Tai Tuivasa via KO
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2-0, 1NC) vs Dan Hooker (23-12) – Lightweight bout
So this is where I may end up contradicting myself. Dan Hooker, like Tuivasa, is a fighter who thrives in raucous crowds, and the fans are undoubtedly going to be heavily supporting the ‘Hangman’.
The 34-year-old has already demanded the fans get him beers ready for after his fight, hoping that he’ll be sipping them in celebration and not in commiseration. The Kiwi has seen a career resurgence in his last few outings, with his last being an extremely hard-fought win over the awkward, Jalin Turner.
Although Hooker has extremely solid takedown defense, Mateusz Gamrot is pretty relentless with his chain wrestling and I don’t see a scenario in which he doesn’t get this fight to the mat at least a few times.
Hooker is the more powerful striker in this matchup, and he can take a shot better than what Gamrot can, however, ‘Gamer’ can hold his own on the feet. With him mixing in his level change attempts, I think he will pose too much of an all-rounded issue for Hooker and will continue his unbeaten streak.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot via decision
Kai Kara-France (24-11-0, 1NC) vs Steve Erceg (12-2) – Flyweight bout
This is an extremely intriguing and fun matchup between two high-level 125lbers. Steve Erceg will likely come into this bout with a chip on his shoulder following on from his very close title challenge at UFC 301 back in May.
I believe that fight and performance will have made for an improved ‘Astroboy’ this weekend. After coming so close to realizing championship status, he will likely have worked tirelessly on making those micro-adjustments to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
Kai Kara-France, though, is as tough and as willing to step in the fire as they come. After suffering back-to-back losses, ‘Don’t Blink’ took a bit of time away from fighting, after admitting he failed neurological tests and had to wait for his brain to recover.
Despite Erceg being four inches taller than Kara-France, the Kiwi holds a slight reach advantage in this matchup. I expect Erceg to try and stay on the outside and pick Kara-France apart from range, whereas the 31-year-old will likely attempt to put on some forward pressure and make it a slightly dirty fight in the pocket.
I think Erceg’s technical striking advantage will be enough for him to just edge in this fight, but I imagine it will be quite a close one.
Prediction: Steve Erceg via decision
Dricus Du Plessis (21-2) vs Israel Adesanya (24-3) – Middleweight title fight
Matchups don’t really get much more intriguing than this. Israel Adesanya is one of the greatest strikers we’ve ever seen in the Octagon, especially when he’s on his game. But Dricus Du Plessis seems to continue defying the odds.
The turning point in ‘Stillknocks’ career was undoubtedly his fight against Robert Whittaker when he silenced all of the doubters by knocking out the former champion in the second round.
‘The Last Stylebender’ has taken 11 months out from fighting, the longest hiatus he’s ever taken. In that time, he has allowed for ongoing injuries to finally heal, as he has been fighting with injuries for a while.
The fact that he may be coming into this fight at least close to 100% is kind of terrifying. Having said that, Du Plessis’ style can cause the former champion issues. We’ve seen it happen against Sean Strickland.
As long as the champion doesn’t allow Adesanya to just calculate every move whilst on the outside, then he will likely have some success in this fight.
Despite that, I can’t help but favor Adesanya in this matchup. Stylistically, he has all the tools to pick Du Plessis off at range, and whenever the South African does rush in aimlessly, he should be able to land his devastating counter shots.
I see the Nigerian-born middleweight once again hoisting UFC gold, becoming a 3x middleweight champion.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya via TKO