While Mike Brown is undeniably a wizard when it comes to all things MMA, picking the exact second Dustin Poirier will submit Islam Makhachev at UFC 302 is nothing short of remarkable. If he gets it right, of course.
In one of the most significant bouts of the year, on Saturday evening, ‘The Diamond’ will look to fulfill his sporting destiny when he makes his third attempt at world championship glory in front of a raucous crowd at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, USA.
Coach Mike Brown shares bold prediction ahead of UFC 302
While training athletes across all fields comes with its fair share of complications, coaching fighters is an entirely different kettle of fish.
The concept of setting foot in the cage with another human being and trading punches while the whole world watches, is a concept that most of us could barely begin to comprehend.
Therefore, those willing to do it, are special individuals, marching to the beat of their own drum.
Even Dustin Poirier, who’s a humble and kindhearted individual, is difficult to manage, with his longtime coach confessing that his student has left him tearing his hair out.
But despite having very little control over what his protégé does inside the cage, Mike Brown is still extremely confident that he knows exactly how and when Poirier will dethrone Islam Makhachev.
In an interview with The MMA Hour, he said: “12 years of this, I’m used to this; he does what he wants right, like you give him ideas and you advise him, you tell him what you think he should do, but at the end of the day, he’s going to take pieces of it and then pieces he’ll throw away: And when the gilly is there, he’s going to jump it.”
“This conversation, this argument hasn’t been going on just since his last fight, this has been going on for decade – I’ve been saying this for a million years,” laughed the veteran coach.
“Oh yeah, he hits it [in practice], he’s got a good one. It’s just sometimes in the fight, when you’re so close to knocking a guy out, then you jump and miss, and now he’s on top, but you probably would have knocked him out if you’d kept it on the feet… But you know, this is DP.”
Brown harked back to Poirier’s fight with Dan Hooker as one key example as to when ‘jumping gilly’ isn’t always the smartest move:
“It’s happened before; I remember the one that was really stressing me out was the one with [Dan] Hooker because he lost the first two rounds, and then he jumps a gilly, two or three in the later rounds, so if he gets stuck on the bottom there, he loses the fight.”
When asked what would happen if Poirier was indeed able to claim the lightweight title with a guillotine, Brown simply acknowledged: “I don’t know, maybe the Earth’s going to blow up – the internet will blow up, that’s for damn sure.”
“There are many scenarios where that could happen, but there’s a lot of things about this fight that I like stylistically; there’s a lot of openings that the team seas and DP can capitalize; it’s about being on and being sharp in those 25 minutes.”
“100% submission by guillotine, 2:38 round one… 2:38 round one, how about that.”
Mike Brown warns Islam Makhachev over against letting the fight go long
Throughout his outstanding career, Poirier has earned a reputation as one of the most resilient fighters in the UFC.
Whether it’s his thriller with Dan Hooker or his war of attrition with Eddie Alvarez, the American is willing to do whatever it takes to march through the fire and come out on top.
Therefore, when the moment of truth arrives on Saturday night, Makhachev knows that allowing Poirier to stay in the bout could spell his demise, and Brown has refused to shy away from making that fact known.
He exclaimed: “25 minutes is where Dustin shines, we’ve always known and felt that he’s better in longer fights, he hits so hard and his conditioning is so good that it’s hard to go 25 minutes without getting cracked, or without him landing a big shot.
“25 minutes is a long time to get through because he’s winging shots hard, hard punches, hard kicks, he’s looking for subs nonstop – it’s a long time to get through because he can finish you in minute one, he can finish you in minute 24.
“That’s [just] how he is, he doesn’t lose his power, for a lot of guys the knockout ratio goes down minute by minute, not DP – this guy can crack and put you on our a** in any minute of the fight.”
Having come so close to wrapping that elusive belt around his waist in the past, Poirier knows exactly what it will take to go one step further and emerge victorious against one of the world’s most fearsome competitors.