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Steve Erceg shouldn’t be counted out at UFC 301 and here’s why

Steve Erceg fights for the UFC flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja this coming Saturday at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro, in what is just his fourth fight with the promotion.

It’s fair to say that Steve Erceg is being counted out by the majority of the UFC fanbase, purely because he hasn’t been at the top of the UFC flyweight division for a considerable amount of time, like some.

‘Astroboy’ is currently a moderate underdog heading into his title challenge – which is fair considering Alexandre Pantoja‘s string of impressive wins, including his title defenses.

Ultimately, I think counting out Steve Erceg already is extremely premature and unjust. Considering how the top of the flyweight division looks, the 28-year-old is a more than worthy contender, and I actually think he could upset the fans in Rio de Janeiro.

Steve Erceg’s underrated skillset could prove a tough test for the dogged Pantoja

When Erceg found out that he was going to be fighting for the title on May 4th, he was sitting eating a KFC at his kitchen table – that was in celebration of his win against Matt Schnell in March.

In his prior two fights, the Australian had showcased a very solid wrestling base, especially in his fight against Alessandro Costa, where he seamlessly had his way with the Brazilian on the ground, flowing through his transitions effortlessly.

One thing that has become noticeable in Erceg’s game is his incredible takedown defense and sprawling ability. Through his three UFC fights, he has registered a takedown defense rate of 77%.

However, in his fight against Schnell, he showcased an extremely high-level boxing base.

Although ‘Danger’ Schnell was heading into that fight 1-2 in his last three, he is still regarded as one of the most dangerous fighters at the top of the 125lb division, but Erceg folded him like a deckchair. With that picture-perfect left hook knockout, Erceg earned himself an additional $50,000.

UFC Fight Night: Schnell v Erceg
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

‘Astroboy’ showed a level of patience – which will be needed in his fight against Pantoja – and made some wise reads during his fight with Schnell. The 28-year-old then perfectly set up his finishing sequence, showcasing his high-level fight IQ.

How I see the UFC 301 main event playing out

Despite only being three fights into his UFC tenure, Erceg has shown that he is very good, everywhere. He has solid takedown defense, high-level control on the mat, and patient yet poignant striking. The thing that will likely come into question during his fight against Pantoja, is whether he has a championship-level heart.

Alexandre Pantoja will likely begin the fight extremely fast, as he usually does. Erceg will need to weather an early storm if he is to return to Western Australia with the gold belt around his waist.

The mental side of the fight is where we are yet to see Steve Erceg excel, and that is simply because he hasn’t had to.

‘The Cannibal’, most well-known for digging deep and pulling the fight out of his opponents, will do just that against ‘Astroboy’. One factor that is continuously brought up by the fans, is that the fight is in Pantoja’s home city of Rio de Janeiro and so he holds an advantage in that respect.

To an extent that is true as he will be more acclimated to his surroundings, however, Erceg has been in the City for over two weeks before the fight, getting used to the time change. Pantoja may come into this fight and focus too much on impressing his home fans, by trying to score a special finish.

This could ultimately play into Erceg’s hands. If the Brazilian fights with too much emotion, he could find himself getting caught by the precise and powerful Australian. I think Steve Erceg will successfully weather an early onslaught from the defending champion and will begin to separate himself in the following rounds, with his patient approach.

Steve Erceg has all of the tools to take the flyweight title to Perth, Western Australia.