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Time to knuckle down and look at the UFC roster and see who my choices are for breakout fighter in each division are. I’ve done this the last couple of years. Some of my choices were dead on – I picked Shavkat Rakhmonov and Alex Pereira one year – but I must acknowledge there have been misses, which you can go back and read yourself. Regardless, I’d say my track record is pretty solid.
As for my criteria, the fighter needs to have made their UFC debut in 2022 or later or have three or less fights within the organization in addition to not having cracked the UFC’s official rankings at any point. Not that I put much stock in the UFC’s rankings, but it’s a criteria that is simple, understood, and easy to adhere to.
The purpose of this is less to give a detailed description of each of the fighters, but to give an idea of who might be worth keeping an eye on when there are so many names on the roster to choose from and open up the comments to discussion as I’ll be the first to admit there are plenty of names that aren’t on this list. Here we go!
UFC Men’s Divisions
Heavyweight
To be clear, there is no Tom Aspinall on the verge of stardom. That said, the cupboard isn’t bare of potential… just close to bare. Karl Williams, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, and Mick Parkin have shown enough that I had to weigh them in, but it was ultimately Shamil Gaziev is the choice. His ability to put opponents away far exceeds that of the others, even if he isn’t quite the athlete or all-around fighter the others are. However, at heavyweight, power reigns supreme and he has it in spades. Having taken down Martin Buday wasn’t a bad start to his UFC career either. Gaziev has a hard ceiling, but he also has insane power.
Light Heavyweight
Light heavyweight is even more bare than heavyweight. There’s only two fighters who fit my criteria that induce any excitement within me. Given Vitor Petrino has two wins over Rodolfo Bellato, there’s only one logical choice. Petrino is still on the raw side, but he has the power and athleticism to go a long way. Given the lack of quality prospects in the division, the UFC is likely to handle him with care. Given he has shown a little bit of everything thus far in his three UFC appearances, they don’t need to handle him with kid gloves. But with gradual progress, he could – and should – be in the top ten by the end of the year.
Middleweight
There is only one choice for 185. It’s a bit cheap to refer to Bo Nickal as a breakout star as he already has more name recognition than about 80% of the roster, but he’s still very unproven in MMA. Sure, he’s been dominant in all five of his professional fights – none have left the first round – but he’s not going to be able to do that to everyone. How will he respond when the fight leaves the first round? That has yet to be answered, but I don’t know anyone who believes it will be problematic for him given how easy he’s passed the tests that have been put in front of him thus far.
Welterweight
Given he debuted in January of 2022, Michael Morales just barely qualifies based on my criteria. Regardless, he qualifies. The Brazilian is just 24 and has already has four wins within the organization. The UFC hasn’t been all that gentle with him either. Jake Matthews and Max Griffin are longtime veterans who were anything but layups for him. Despite that, he’s shown maturity beyond his years in the manner in which he dealt with them. With his blend of size, power, skill, and athleticism, Morales should very well be considered as a potential future champion.
Lightweight
There isn’t a lightweight prospect whom I feel comfortable saying is a sure thing to break out this year. There’s a lot of solid prospects with a concern or two, but it’s hard to differentiate who would be best to pick out of a lineup. My issue with Nurullo Aliev isn’t quite the same as the others.
Only 23 with just a single UFC fight under his belt, I’m more worried that his real breakout year is going to be a year or two beyond 2024. Regardless, all the tools are there for him to make a rapid ascent, provided he can make it to the cage multiple times in the next year. Thus, he’s the one I’m keeping my eye on at 155.
Featherweight
It could be argued Diego Lopes had a breakout year in 2023. In his UFC debut, Lopes gave Movsar Evloev a hell of a scare and proceeded to mow down both Gavin Tucker and Pat Sabatini in under two minutes. He is one of the older fighters on this list at 29, which also happens to be the amount of professional fights he has under his belt.
In other words, he’s the most finished product on this list. Regardless, it doesn’t appear as though he has hit his ceiling yet and he’s likely to get a fight or two with an opponent with a number next to their name. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t end the year with a number himself.
Bantamweight
I strongly considered putting Christian Rodriguez on this list last year, but I held off as I didn’t anticipate he was quite ready for a breakout year. He’s better primed for that breakout this year, but with one BIG caveat. Rodriguez has fought four times under the UFC banner at bantamweight. He’s missed weight three times. For all I know, the UFC may already be forcing him up to featherweight. If he can solve that problem, he’s got the skill and maturity beyond his years to develop into a serious problem in one of the sports deepest divisions. For his sake, I very much hope that is the case.
Flyweight
There are a lot of prospects at 125 that I have high hopes for. Joshua Van. Azat Maksum. Even Felipe dos Santos coming off his loss to Manel Kape was someone who crossed my mind. However, it’s Asu Almabaev who gets my vote. Not that I necessarily believe he has the highest ceiling, but he’s as ready-made as they get for this year. He’s 29, not lacking for experience, and has a lockdown wrestling style that could make him a BIG problem for a division full of scramblers. I don’t expect him to get easy tests, but I do expect him to pass them.
UFC Women’s Divisions
Women’s Bantamweight
While the division is the most shallow of all those in the UFC, there isn’t a shortage of options as the UFC signed a bunch of bodies last year. The issue is none of them are true blue-chippers. Despite that, I like what I’ve seen from Tainara Lisboa the most. Though she has an extensive Muay Thai background, she’s shown some skills on the mat, securing her first UFC victory via RNC over someone who was thought to have the advantage on the mat in Jessica-Rose Clark. I acknowledge that isn’t enough to say she’s a future star, but I’d be shocked if she doesn’t break into the rankings at some point this year.
Women’s Flyweight
There’s no shortage of prospects in this division, but they don’t fall under the criteria I’ve established. Rather than bend the rules I’ve set upon myself, I’ll settle for picking Tereza Bleda. Not that the Czech fighter is bereft of talent, but she’s very green, having just turned 22 a month ago. Regardless, she showed her talent in her UFC debut when she took the opening round off Natalia Silva before her gas tank got the better of her. Like Aliev, I think her real breakout year is further down the line, but I wouldn’t put it past her to do so sooner if she has the proper coaching.
Women’s Strawweight
While I don’t see any prospects who I see becoming title challengers, I see quite a few who should have a number next to their names at various points. The one I’ve got my eye on is Jaqueline Amorim. She very much reminds me of where Tabatha Ricci was upon her UFC entry given her BJJ accolades and experience level. However, Amorim doesn’t have the issues with her size that will ultimately limit the ceiling of Ricci. Amorim did lose her UFC debut to Sam Hughes, but she rebounded nicely in her sophomore effort, showing an aptitude to learn from her mistakes. Thus, if anyone at the lower end of the division is going to break out, it’s her.
Disagree?
I’m always happy to hear other opinions. If your candidate isn’t on here, please keep in mind that I limited myself to the above criteria, so some of the more obvious names have been eliminated in that manner. Regardless, no one else is limited to those rules, so please share your thoughts in the comments.