Tonight’s card sees the UFC is back in its APEX facility with a card that is truly befitting of its stage. The main event for this quota filling programming is Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green in the lightweight division. A fine match-up, but not exactly the UFC fight night headliner that has us all itching for Saturday night to come around.
The co-main event is Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassen. Enough said.
As always, I’ve hounded our staff to make picks for these fights. And it wasn’t easy this week. Despite the lack of enthusiasm, we’ve gotten our selections in and it seems we are unanimous in believing Grant Dawson will be too multi-dimensional for the aging Bobby Green. Let’s see if this means we have cursed Dawson to an embarressing momentum killing defeat.
In the co-main, we’re mostly on one of Dana White’s favoured Contender Series alums to beat Abdul Razak Alhassen.
You can see the rest of our UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green picks below. Please hit us with yours in the comments!
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green staff picks and predictions
Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
Anton Tabuena: “DoNt JuDge A cArd bEfoRe It hApPenz.” I can already hear Dana spouting off some nonsense to brag about the action from this UFC fight night card after, as if tiny regional shows (some with even better cards than this) don’t produce finishes. This is another example of UFC’s blatant filler APEX events, where they spend as little as possible to just help meet their ESPN event quota.
As for the main event, I think this is a sizable step up in competition for Dawson, but he has the style to stifle his aging foe’s game. Grant Dawson by decision.
Dayne: We know what Green is. He’s a crafty veteran who can still outwork the vast majority of the lightweight roster despite his many years of experience and 37 years. However, with that mileage, he’s also not as durable as he used to be. Fortunately for Green, Dawson isn’t the powerful striker that has cracked him in recent years.
Unfortunately for Green, Dawson does appear to be the type of grappler that has given him the type of headaches that lead to L’s on his ledger.
The wild card in this fight is the five rounds. Neither has fought into the championship rounds and it’s difficult to predict how each will perform. Dawson’s faulty gas tank appears to have been solved by moving up to 155, but can he keep Green’s pace?. Green has always fought at a high pace, but as he ages and he faces someone who will employ such a ground heavy approach, it’s hard to say if it holds up over five rounds.
Ultimately, this fight comes down to desire. Green appears to be in a good head-space, but part of that appears to be due to his not putting too much care in wins and losses. He’s happy in his role as a fan favorite picking up paychecks. Dawson has title aspirations.
He won’t accept a loss. And while Green is exceptionally difficult to submit, Dawson is one of the best RNC experts on the roster. He’ll need a statement if he wants a top opponent in his next fight. I say he makes that statement. Dawson via submission of RD4
Victor: This isn’t bad booking, but it’s a UFC fight night card suffering from star power. Best the UFC can hope for is a finish electrifying enough to make the ESPN Top 10. Green runs a good steady pace in his fights and can pour on the offense once he finds ways to make guys bite on his feints. His boxing is very slick and his wrestling is also good on the defensive end.
It’s the chain wrestling and the prolonged periods on his back that’ll hurt him. Dawson’s gonna have to wade into inside range and not let Green get comfortable, and I’m not sure where his cardio is at. But I’ll take Dawson eventually grinding him out and working multiple sub attempts that will give him enough control time and offensive opportunities to get a decision win. Nothing against Green, I just don’t know that I can trust him despite his veteran savvy. Grant Dawson by decision.
Zane: I hate the idea, but I can’t look at what seems to be an increasingly flat-footed version of Bobby Green and help but think that Grant Dawson will get a lot of chances to tie him up. It may not even feel like a fight Dawson wins. And it being 5 rounds gives Green lots of chances for a late surge if Dawson starts to fade. But my guess is he’ll get a few backpacking moments, spend some time clinching on the fence, and generally be just active enough that judges reward him with the win. Grant Dawson by decision.
Staff picking Dawson: Dayne, Kristen, Lucas, Anton, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Staff picking Green:
Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassen
Dayne: The UFC likes Pyfer. Why else would they put him in a co-main event in just his third fight? However, they also are giving him every opportunity to pad his record. Alhassen still has one strike KO power, but even that has faded some. Even worse, he’s a small 185er with a questionable gas tank. He NEEDS the KO or he’s going to lose. Pyfer may be utilizing his striking more than anything, but he has wrestling he can fall back on and fights with impressive maturity. Being over a decade younger helps too. Pyfer via TKO of RD2
Victor: Pyfer’s got power and tenacity, and Abdul has power plus his Judo base. Both are great athletes in different ways, and I trust Pyfer more with accuracy and overall offense. Joe Pyfer by TKO.
Zane: In a fight between two power punching KO artists, I’ll take the guy with cleaner technique and a couple of gear changes to his timing. Joe Pyfer via KO, round 1.
Staff picking Pyfer: Dayne, Kristen, Anton, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Staff picking Alhassen: Lucas
Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley
Anton: Buckley has all the physical advantages that should make him the favorite, but I still don’t trust him against craftier fighters. And that’s Morono, who should be the more technical and smarter fighter at UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green. I can see it going either way, but I think those things could be enough for Morono to overcome the shortcomings in athleticism and power. Alex Morono by decision.
Dayne: It is easy to overlook Morono. He’s a middling athlete at best who has been the inferior athlete in just about every one of his UFC contests. Despite that, he’s put together a record where he has more than twice as many wins as losses as he closes in on eight years in the organization. That said, he’s constantly walking a tightrope that only gets more difficult as he advances beyond his prime years.
If this was two years ago, I’m picking Morono. As it is, Buckley appears to have found his proper home at welterweight. At 170, he’s become an efficient enough wrestler to compliment his powerful striking. Plus, the gap between himself and Morono on an athletic level is enough to fill a large canyon. Morono will fight to the death, but his chin isn’t iron. Buckley’s fight IQ has improved to the point where I believe he’ll crack Morono. Buckley via KO of RD3
Victor: Gonna be tough, but Morono has the takedown and submission game to give Buckley fits. Tough one to pick. Morono by submission.
Zane: I’ve seen Alex Morono in a few fights like this now, and they tend to have a very predictable arc to them. Morono comes out, looks good, finds lots of opportunities, and may even start running away with the fight. But his opponent doesn’t go away. And because they’re faster and stronger than him, they keep finding chances to crack him. And sooner or later he gets hurt, bad. Joaquin Buckley via KO, round 3.
Staff picking Morono: Anton, Victor, Tim
Staff picking Buckley: Dayne, Kristen, Lucas, Stephie, Zane, Eddie
Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn
Dayne: Coming off the first KO/TKO loss of his career, it’s fair to say Dober’s chin appears to finally be cracking. After all, that loss isn’t the only warning sign; he’s also been hurt several times in the fights before his chin finally cracked. However, Glenn appears to be taking a similar direction, his long durable chin breaking against Christos Giagos in his last contest. In a contest of strikers with fading chins, the safer pick is to go with the harder hitter. That’s clearly Dober. Dober via TKO of RD2
Victor: Glenn’s still got a lot of fight in him, and I worry that a better and more explosive all-around athlete with a knack for hitting hard can do something nasty to him. Drew Dober by TKO.
Zane: Glenn tends to let opponents come to him, and then try to match their energy in the pocket. That seems tailor made for Dober to step inside and land bombs first. Drew Dober via KO, round 1.
Staff picking Dober: Dayne, Kristen, Lucas, Anton, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Glenn: Tim
Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba
Dayne: Cutelaba has the physical skills of a title contender and the fight IQ of a part-time regional fighter. It makes picking his fights a maddening experience. Lins isn’t without talent and has showed a better fight IQ than most would attribute to him in his most recent contests, giving me pause in believing he’s the type of opponent Cutelaba tends to run over.
Regardless, Cutelaba has the type of speed Lins has struggled with. Thus, I’m going with the UFC’s ultimate meathead. Cutelaba via TKO of RD1
To read the rest of our UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green staff picks head on over to Substack. Now that Bloody Elbow is a fully independent site the best way to support us, so that we can continue fearless coverage of combat sports, is to pick up a paid subscription. Paid subscribers help fund other exclusive content like editorials from Karim Zidan and Jonathan Snowden and investigations by John S. Nash.
Eddie was able to leapfrog over Anton thanks to his picks two weeks ago. Anton drops back to third, which will somehow be my fault. Zane holds firm in fourth and gets a little separation between himself and Kristen. It’s still very bunched up, though. Let’s see what happens after it’s all said and done at UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green.
|Position||Staffer||Correct||Incorrect||Total Picks||%||Picks Back||Week 33 Record|
|1 (-)||Dayne 🇺🇸||252||155||407||0.619||7-4|
|2 (▲)||Eddie 🏴☠️||250||157||407||0.614||2||7-4|
|3 (▼)||Anton 🇵🇭||249||158||407||0.612||3||5-6|
|4 (-)||Zane 🇺🇸||247||160||407||0.607||5||7-4|
|5 (-)||Kristen 🇺🇸||241||166||407||0.592||11||5-6|
|6 (-)||Stephie 🇫🇯||240||153||393||0.611||12||7-4|
|7 (-)||Tim 🇨🇦||233||174||407||0.572||19||6-5|
|8 (-)||Lucas 🇧🇷||226||169||395||0.572||26||5-6|
|9 (▲)||BE Community 🌎||187||152||339||0.552||65||7-4|
|10 (▼)||Chris 🇺🇸||187||208||395||0.473||64||5-6|
|11 (-)||Victor 🇺🇸||167||127||294||0.568||85||8-3|
|12 (-)||Jack 🇨🇦||158||116||274||0.577||94||8-3|
|13 (-)||Ben 🇺🇸||59||35||94||0.628||193||0-0|
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