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UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida is blasting off tonight with a heavyweight main event going down at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. The UFC’s #12 ranked, Jailton Almeida, is a submission guru who is taking on a dangerous knockout artist in the #9 ranked, Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Now let’s go take a look at what the betting odds have to say about this classic clash of styles, and see if we can spot some value floating around in the props.
Welp, Almeida is clocking in as a massive -500 betting favorite here, with Rozenstruik rocking a sizable underdog value of around +375. That’s to be expected. Jailton is on a mean streak while consistency has been plaguing Jairzinho for a couple of years now. Of course the oddsmaker are siding with him, and they’re even favoring him to finish.
According to the odds, the chances of this main event lasting all-five rounds are quite slim. The prop bet ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ is listed with a wildly favored tick of -1200, with a +600 comeback on the ‘Fight goes to decision’ option. That is indeed ludicrous, but we’ve got a submission ace pitted against a KO artist… at heavyweight no less.
The proposition ‘Almeida wins inside distance’ is trending at a moderately favored line of -350, while the ‘Rozenstruik wins inside distance’ wager is floating around at +450. Go one step further and you’ll find ‘Almeida wins by submission’ holding a favored moneyline of -120, and ‘Rozenstruik wins by submission’ available at comical limit of +3300.
As far as knockouts go, there’s ‘Almeida wins by TKO/KO’ nestled at +175, and then ‘Rozenstruik wins by TKO/KO’ up a ways at +475. That’s the thing about Almeida — if he can’t get his submission, then he’s more than comfortable dropping hammers from a controlling position to get a stoppage… just ask Shamil Abdurakhimov.
Where’s the value?
Taking Almeida by submission seems risky here, since we’ve never seen Rozenstruik get submitted before, and we’ve already talked about Jailton’s ground and pound. I suppose you could take a flier on a Rozenstruik knockout, but he legit has a puncher’s chance here. What about the over/under? You’ve got ‘Under 1½ rounds’ strongly favored at -235, and then ‘Over 1½ rounds’ situated at +170.
When Jairzinho fought Curtis Blaydes, he gave up a takedown in each of the three rounds. Rozenstruik was able to scramble up to his feet in the first five-minutes, but after that, once he was down he stayed down. He survived, though. We’ve also seen Rozenstruik hang tough on the ground against Alistair Overeem in order to pull off a fifth round knockout before. So, ‘Big Boi’ just might be stubborn enough to make it past the midpoint of the second round. If that’s the case, then taking a look at ‘Over 1½ rounds’ at +170 might just be the ticket.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida betting odds
Courtesy of BestFightOdds
Fight card
Main card
- Jailton Almeida vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik: Heavyweight
- Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker: Light Heavyweight
- Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Machado Garry: Welterweight
- Carlos Ulberg vs. Ihor Potieria: Light Heavyweight
- Tim Means vs. Alex Morono: Welterweight
Prelims
- Matt Brown vs. Court McGee: Welterweight
- Karl Williams vs Chase Sherman: Heavyweight
- Cody Stamann vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade: Bantamweight
- Natan Levy vs. Pete Rodriguez: Lightweight
- Ji Yeon Kim vs. Mandy Böhm: (W) Flyweight
- Gabe Green vs. Bryan Battle: Welterweight
- Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Tainara Lisboa: (W) Bantamweight
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