It’s fight day! UFC 284 is going on down under today (February 11th) from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The event’s marquee matchup will see the UFC’s lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, make his first title defense against the promotion’s current featherweight champ, Alex Volkanovski. Before that, though, let’s go have one final look at what the betting odds have to say.
As of our midweek betting odds post, we learned that Islam was listed as a sizable betting favorite over Alex. Not much has changed here since the weigh-ins, as Makhachev is still posted up around the -380 mark, and Volkanovski remains at a large +320 underdog value.
I already touched on how Makhachev is deserving of the favored position in our midweek post. Islam is a grappling god, and will be facing a challenger who is significantly smaller than him in stature. With that being said, I also mentioned how absolutely absurd I find this betting line.
If you ask me, the wideness of the line makes Volkanovski a clear live dog. He is facing an uphill battle by moving up in weight to compete against a grappling phenom, but on the same token, he should have a noticeable speed advantage in the striking department.
Let’s now take a look at some of the prop bets going for this champion vs. champion matchup.
The bookies are not banking on this one making it to the final bell. The prop bet ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ holds a favored position of -175, with a + 130 comeback on the ‘Fight goes to decision’ option.
Not only do the betting odds have Makhachev winning, but they also have the UFC’s lightweight champion favored to find a finish. The exotic bet ‘Makhachev wins inside distance’ is on deck at -115, while the ‘Volkanovski wins inside distance’ line has been labeled with a huge underdog tag of +700.
According to the betting lines, the most likely result of the UFC 284 main event is Islam coming up with a sub. The prop bet ‘Makhachev wins by submission’ can be scooped up at a small plus line of +140, and then the ‘Volkanovski wins by submission’ bet is considered to be next to impossible at +2500.
The moneylines even peg Islam as more likely than Alex to get a knockout. There’s ‘Makhachev wins by TKO/KO’ trending at +400, versus ‘Volkanovski wins by TKO/KO’ locked in at +850. Volkanovski isn’t known for his knockout power. It’s true, but to be fair, his last five fights were against The Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung, Brian Ortega, and Max Holloway (3x). He stopped Zombie with strikes in the fourth, and then those other two guys are freaks of nature that just don’t get knocked out.
The oddsmakers see Volkanovski’s best shot at winning here is on points, and even then the lightweight champ is given a better shot at pulling that off. The ‘Volkanovski wins by decision’ wager is floating around at +600, while the ‘Makhachev wins by decision’ selection is a mere +215.
The oddsmakers, and many fans alike, are expecting one way traffic here. That is definitely possible, but I’ve never seen anyone in the UFC come remotely close to running over Volkanovski. We’ve actually never seen him lose under the UFC banner, so I guess I’m just not as sold as everyone else is on what’s going to happen tonight. This fight is giving me big Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre 1 vibes.
Check out the UFC 284 betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
For an in-depth breakdown of each UFC 284 fight, check out The MMA Vivisection with Bloody Elbow’s own Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch. Be sure to subscribe to our Bloody Elbow Presents YouTube channel to get the best original podcast content in the sport. Also, stay glued to Bloody Elbow for all of your event coverage: including play-by-plays, results, highlights, and more! Happy hunting!
About the author: Eddie Mercado has covered combat sports since 2015. He covers everything from betting odds to live events and fighter interviews. He holds a 1-0 record in pro MMA and holds a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu. (full bio)
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