UFC Vegas 15: Smith vs. Clark staff picks and predictions

Yeah… so UFC Vegas 15 sure is happening. Most of us think Anthony Smith will beat Devin Clark in the makeshift main event, while it’s a clean sweep for Miguel Baeza over Takashi Sato in the co-main.

Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark

Mookie Alexander: Oh man. Making this a five-rounder is not ideal for entertainment purposes. Clark likes to throw with power without actually being all that powerful, and Smith is the better striker. He’s at a clear disadvantage on the ground if Smith gets him on his back. I’m worried about Smith’s recent performances and the fact that he does get stopped more often than not when he loses, so this is not a slam dunk. I guess I’m not really sold on Clark becoming a contender just yet and this would be the worst loss Smith has had in a long time. Anthony Smith by submission, round 3.

Zane Simon: Smith really SHOULD win this fight. He’s a much more skilled striker and grappler. He’s (surprisingly) the calmer fighter under pressure. And a better counterpuncher by miles. But, Smith still isn’t a great fighter when things are going wrong. And Clark does have a wrestling edge, even if he only sometimes gets to it. My guess is that Smith will start hot and hurt Clark before Clark has a chance to rally. But, if he burns his gas tank like he did against Glover, or just gets stung badly at some point, this whole thing could get real messy. Anthony Smith via TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Smith: Zane, Phil, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Clark: Dayne

Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato

Mookie Alexander: At least this fight should be fun. Matt Brown’s chin may be going on him but he’s still historically hard to knock out and Baeza overcame a rough opening round to shut his lights out in round two. Sato is a heavy hitter in his own right and may have success on the counter, but I think Baeza will outpoint him. Miguel Baeza by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Sato’s the better counter puncher, Baeza’s the better lead striker. Baeza’s defense has some big gaps in it, but mostly only when he’s getting really heavy pressure. If Sato isn’t going to apply that, then my feeling is Baeza’s greater willingness to go first and play a safe range game will keep him out ahead. Miguel Baeza by decision.

Staff picking Baeza: Zane, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Sato:

Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter

Mookie Alexander: Remember when Parker Porter fought Jon Jones in 2008? Yeah. That was something. Josh Parisian by TKO, round 1.

Zane Simon: Porter is unquestionably the more technical striker, with a clearer process and more well honed tools. But he might just lose anyway because he’s an undersized heavyweight without a great chin. I’ll still pick him, because I like rooting for the guy bringing a developed game to the table, but I don’t have much confidence in it. Parker Porter via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Parisian: Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Porter: Zane, Phil

Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo

Mookie Alexander: Carlyle is a fun fighter to watch but he’s just so wild out there that it already cost him in the Billy Quarantillo fight and figures to cost him against composed, well-skilled opposition like Bill Algeo. Bill Algeo by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Algeo is a pretty well-rounded fighter with a seeming infinite willingness to scrap and stay in a tough fight. Against guys like that, who aren’t easy to break and overwhelm with early pressure, I just can’t pick Spike Carlyle right now. He makes too many mistakes and uses too much energy on early wild aggression. Expect Carlyle to start hot and fade late, if he doesn’t get finished though, that could lead to a razor thin split decision. Bill Algeo by decision.

Staff picking Carlyle: Phil, Dayne, Stephie
Staff picking Algeo: Zane, Mookie

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Norma Dumont Viana

Mookie Alexander: Dumont badly missed weight and frankly I don’t see anything to suggest she’s long for the UFC. Ashlee Evans-Smith by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Evans-Smith: Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Dumont: Zane, Phil

Jonathan Pearce vs. Kai Kamaka

Mookie Alexander: I remember Kai Kamaka from the Tony Kelley fight and Jonathan Pearce from getting his ass whooped by Joe Lauzon. Kai Kamaka by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Pearce: Zane
Staff picking Kamaka: Mookie, Dayne, Stephie

Preliminary Card

Martin Day vs. Anderson dos Santos

Staff picking Day: Zane, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking AdS:

Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich

Staff picking Mazany:
Staff picking Ostovich: Zane, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie

Su Mudaerji vs. Malcolm Gordon

Staff picking Su: Zane, Phil, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Gordon: Dayne

Luke Sanders vs. Nathan Maness

Staff picking Sanders: Zane, Phil, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Maness: Dayne