UFC 239: Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos win probabilities and possible bets

Bloody Elbow 2.0 | Anton Tabuena

The win probabilities for UFC 239’s six qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Jones-Santos, Nunes-Holm, and Askren-Masvidal, see Friday’s piece.

Jon Jones (83.4%) over Thiago Santos
Amanda Nunes (78.8%) over Holly Holm
Luke Rockhold (71.3%) over Jan Blachowicz
Michael Chiesa (68.0%) over Diego Sanchez
Arnold Allen (58.9%) over Gilbert Melendez
Claudia Gadelha (60.8%) over Randa Markos

Current Bankroll: $10,629.36
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $11,026.73

The fight computer has no bets as of this writing (10:35am PT). Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.

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About the author

Paul Gift

Dr. Paul Gift is a sports economist with a research focus on mixed martial arts. A licensed MMA referee and judge himself, Dr. Gift’s interests pertain to many facets of the MMA industry including behavioral biases and judging, the role of financial and environmental factors on fighter performance, determination of fighter marginal products, and predictive analytics.

A regular MMA business contributor for Forbes, Dr. Gift also writes about MMA analytics and officiating in popular press for SB Nation and co-hosts the MMA business podcast Show Money. His sports research has been cited in the Wall Street Journal, ESPN’s Grantland, and popular media including Around the Horn, Olbermann, and various MMA and boxing podcasts.