Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos headlines UFC Prague this February 23, 2019 at the O2 Arena in Prague, Czech Republic.
One sentence summary
David: Meat and eggs, we eat!
Phil: Polish conservatism meets Brazilian nuttiness in one of the most surprisingly compelling light heavyweight fights you’ll see this year.
Stats
Record: Jan Blachowicz 23-7 | Thiago Santos 20-6
Odds: Jan Blachowicz -110 | Thiago Santos -110
History / Introduction to the fighters
David: Blachowicz cut his teeth on the Polish circuit before coming to the UFC, and he’s been a quality fighter. Nothing great. Nothing bad. Occasionally exciting. For better or worse, this feels like a UFC special: grinders headlining cards because they offer consistency more than spectacle. That’s not an insult to Blachowicz so much as it is the natural state of affairs these days. In that respect, Blachowicz has earned his keep, and deserves to be near the top of the list of LHW contenders. That’s not a sentence I ever expected to type for a main event, but it’s not like this is a bad fight.
Phil: I like Jan Blachowicz! His debut in the UFC was a surprising body KO of Ilir Latifi… followed by a hype-deflating loss to a one-legged Jimi Manuwa, and getting outpointed by Corey Anderson (a fight which I cannot remember for the life of me). The nadir was clearly his loss to Patrick Cummins, where he lit the American throwback up for a round and then got very, very tired. This set a clear ceiling for Blachowicz, which he has modestly broken through. It’s a good string of wins, and he has looked impressively controlled and coherent of late.
David: Santos does what he does best: imagine that his fists are sledgehammers, and use people’s faces to help forge his weapon. It’s worked pretty well. His record is a somewhat mixed bag the way it usually is for fighters looking to slaughter humans in the first two minutes: but Santos has fought so long in the UFC, he’s refined his game along the way with the naked skulls on his throne to prove it.
Phil: Santos has quietly emerged as one of the most reliably fun fighters in the UFC. Not only is the man a complete lunatic in the cage, but he’s kept an incredible pace when it comes to appearances. He’s one of the few men to rack up five UFC fights in a single calendar year, and every one of them was awesome violent fun, even his blowout loss to Dave Branch. Were he more durable, we might be looking at the Carlos Condit or Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos of the division, and we might still be if his chin holds up at light heavyweight better than it did at 185. Either way, he epitomizes “live by the sword, die by the sword.” If by sword we actually mean “whirling insanity like a Brazilian version of Taz the Tazmanian Devil.”
What’s at sake?
David: Both guys are surging, and on 3+ fight winning streaks.
Phil: What weird s— is going on in the light heavyweight division… *checks*… nothing? Nothing weird is going on? No strange interims or hold-ups or dumb superfights? Well, that means that there’s a good chance that the winner of this one might actually be… next in line for a title shot? Well I’ll be damned.
Where do they want it?
David: Blachowicz is a great example of how fundamentals create an olive tree of violence, keeping together the strict sequencing of offense and defense helixed together. With a stiff, short, chopping jab, Blachowicz keeps things moving in combination, anchoring his boxing with counter high kicks and compact switches to maximize his ability to reset and pressure without putting himself in harm’s way. He also has pretty good movement. Because he’s so adept at establishing his jab, his ability to fight within range also establishes an ability to come under and over with various attacks while disrupting his opponent’s rhythm. He nets himself a lot of decision wins as a result: he’s not naturally powerful, but his pace is strong enough that few fighters ever gain any sort of momentum.
Phil: Southpaw jabs! They’re incredibly underrated as a range weapon in MMA, in part because everyone gets incredibly obsessed with getting outside foot position and lining up the cross. Thus, Blachowicz has been able to command range and flummox some more athletic fighters with just a basic command of this range tool. He backs it up with the big body kick and a mean little short uppercut / hook series. He’s a good wrestler with a nasty headlock and snapdown game, and a very good top position player. In general the issue has been that he’s powerful but a little slow, and thus has struggled a little to land his strikes cleanly enough to finish. Without a finish, his second problem turns up: slightly lacking cardio. It’s something that he’s cleaned up on a bit lately, in part because it feels like he’s far less likely to let the fights out of his control.
David: I don’t think Santos is a fighter of mayhem. Mayhem just naturally happens in his fight ecosphere. I think we’re so used to thinking of technique in terms of range that single strike offense gets unfairly criticized as “wild” or “primitive” and Santos is a good example of how that’s not always the case. I’m not arguing that Santos is a technician. Just that he’s not some headless brawler. For one, he’s not so proud that he won’t go for a takedown. For two, he knows how to build quality of quality: focusing on strike selection over strike invasion. Yes, he goes Full Vovchanchyn at times, but it’s usually because he smells blood in the water. At range, he cuts through the middle with slicing kicks, and inside the clinch, he switches between heavy knees and hockey-like overhands.
Phil: I’ll always love Santos for his strategic innovation before the Jimi Manuwa fight. Apparently they had a whole gameplan laid out, but just before they went out there he decided that he was just going to bang, bro. He figured that Jimi didn’t like pure, unadulterated offense and made the executive decision that now was the time to go H.A.M. And he was right! Not least because this fight was something of a mirror match, and I think Santos himself recognized that he is not comfortable on the back foot. So, just making sure that he has violence flowing at all time might put him in a dangerous spot with regards to counters coming back, but it also keeps him from getting backed into the fence a la the Branch fight. The takedowns you mentioned are worth shouting out as well- for someone with a major propensity to self-destruct on the floor, he’s shown a decent knack for hitting his own takedowns, and landing hideous ground and pound. Offensive diversity will always serve him well.
Insight from past fights
David: There’s no way you can’t look at the Jimi Manuwa fights. Both fighters took two different approaches. Blachowicz stayed patiently at range, and jabbed his way in and out of trouble. Santos’ method of beating Manuwa was Jason Bourne’s stairwell plunge.
Normally I’ll take a clean decision win over a 60-second shootout and call it a day. I think you learn more from a proper decision: their ability/inability to sustain an attack, durability, strategy and tactics, etc. However, other than a brief scare, Santos pretty much wrecked Manuwa from start to finish. I think this fight will come down to how well Blachowicz’ can stay confident in his jab, and midrange kicking. His head movement is good. But his general movement makes him look like a heavyweight plodder. I can easily see Santos cutting through entries with front kicks and hard-charging uppercuts. For Santos — a fighter who willing to wing punches from his ankles — I think the ultimate question is the one posed in that clip of Jason Bourne falling 50-feet to headshot a man he can only guestimate as to where he’ll be in the splitsecond he passes with a henchman’s corpse as his plunge surfboard — what if he misses?
Phil: I’m still a little concerned by how easily Santos got himself backed up by a careful technician in Dave Branch. Jared Cannonier showed that it’s not exactly impossible to physically overwhelm Branch, so it wasn’t a fight that he was doomed to lose.
X-Factors
David: Santos’ post fight comments reveal an interesting psychology at work. His philosophy to fighting as different than his coaches? That’s not a new one on me, but it’s still interesting. The weird part about all of this is that we’ve seen glimpses of Santos fighting a smart fight. We’ve seen takedowns. We’ve seen patience (sort of). We’ve seen technique. Is there a chance that he listens to the angel instead of the devil on his shoulders for Blachowicz?
Phil: Both of these men have flaws which they’ve hidden for a bit, which I can see resurfacing. Should Blachowicz be able to time Santos’ hooks in order to hit takedowns, do I trust the depth of Santos’ game off his back, or does he just try and surge to the feet and get himself in trouble? Similarly, what happens to Blachowicz’ gas tank if Santos lands that body kick on him?
Prognostication
David: I honestly don’t know. Beforehand I always thought the biggest question that needed to be addressed was whether or not Santos could deal with a technical striker. I’m not sure it’s that simple. How effective is Blachowicz if Santos is suddenly feinting and staying patient with his single strike mayhem? The other issue at stake is whether Blachowicz can keep his wits and his stamina together. He’s been able to do that against quality competition, but against deadly heaters like the one Santos will be throwing? For whatever Santos’ faults, he’s able to prolong otherwise unsustainable-looking offense. Balchowicz is not the kind of fighter you can fast-twitch muscle fiber out of there, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Thiago Santos by TKO, round 2.
Phil: There have been a few times recently where the read on Blachowicz has been that the fighter against him is just going to out-athlete him… and it just kind of hasn’t happened? Instead he’s been looking like someone who could justify the modest hype that he garnered on the Polish scene. That being said, if anyone can crack his shell and tire him out with pure violence, it is the man they call Marreta. One of Blachowicz’ underrated traits is that while he gets tired, he is incredibly tough, so I think he can survive Santos offense and gradually shepherd him behind the jab and body kick, but it is very hard to call. I’m actually genuinely looking forward to this one, it should be a fascinating clash of styles. Jan Blachowicz by submission, round 3,