Francis N’Gannou vs. Cain Velasquez this February 17, 2019 at the Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stats
Record: Francis N’Gannou 12-3 Cain Velasquez 14-2
Odds: Francis N’Gannou +135 Cain Velasquez -155
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: So N’Gannou still has a job despite getting so “full of himself” we weren’t sure he’d ever come back from his ‘I’m the kind of the world’ coma. This dude was on the brink of collapse; in danger of falling into the ego abyss, and never coming back. Or at least that’s the story Dana White sold the public. Where was Dana on his armchair to psychoanalyze Conor McGregor when he wore a fur coat in July? Where were these comments when Covington lied about sleeping with every star on Pornhub? Everytime Ali Abdelaziz opens his mouth? Et cetera. I guess what I’m trying to say is that I have no doubt that Ngannou may have let contendership get to his head. What I DO doubt is that Dana was ever — in the slightest — right to single out N’Gannou’s ego over all the other goober egos in this sport. Ngannou’s fine. But he’s got a tough test ahead of him.
Phil: N’Gannou had the kind of shocking rise and fall that would only be possible out in the empty wastelands of the bigger divisions, and the UFC handled it with their typical aplomb. A spectacular and incredibly raw talent, he surged towards his ceiling and bounced off it with a loud clang, the kind that made people stop saying things like “look at how quickly he’s picking up skills this early into an MMA career” and reminded them that yes, he was still this early in his career. However, one of the dubious advantages of the UFC being willing to rush prospects is that they forget about problems quickly, and one big win over Curtis Blaydes later, N’Gannou is back in the spotlight.
David: Let me just say this. Real quick. Before it festers, boils over, and forces me write something I will regret until the end of days. Cain Velasquez has fought just four times since 2012. That is not a goddamn accident (!!!). With the Whittaker stuff, and pretty much every event that feels like a white knuckler before anything has even happened because it’s only a matter of time before someone important gets horrifically injured to a degree no other sports comes close to managing — Grasso’s leg extension training is just one, dumb example of a broader problem. MMA fighters largely don’t have access to elite training facilities, or strategies. As far as I’m concerned, we’re still in the Billy Rush era. That to me, is Cain’s story in a nutshell: a fighter with great promise in a sport that promises its fighters nothing.
Phil: I still think that I’d probably take “prime” Cain over any heavyweight, and perhaps any fighter ever. But then we find ourselves asking what the word prime even means. Maybe his insane overtraining was just part of who he was, and without him being a self-destructive loon in the gym, we wouldn’t have gotten the same relentless fighter in the cage. In general he was the most salient and depressing example of the myth of heavyweight exceptionalism: the story was that he’d be the champion who combined the nimbleness and cardio of a lighter fighter with the power of a big man. As it turned out, basic physical realities mean that there’s a reason why heavies don’t train like lightweights- even if the body can be pushed past those realities for a short time, the realities crowd in with increasing insistence down the stretch.
What’s at stake?
David: Dana has managed to throw N’Gannou under the bus, and the odds of Cain staying healthy for more than three months are slim. It’s quite possible a N’Gannou loss will see both men swallowed by absence in the near future.
Phil: A Cain win briefly reminds us of that time when we truly saw him as the future of the division, perhaps even gets a few people trying to resurrect his resume as the Greatest UFC Heavyweight Of All Time (spoiler: no. Even with a N’Gannou win, it’d still be Stipe and then JDS). N’Gannou? He gets to join Stipe in sitting around waiting for whatever is going on with Cormier and Brock.
Where do they want it?
David: First, a breakdown of some training footage: hahahhaa. Ok, now that I’ve gotten that out of my system, let me just say that this isn’t exactly Ronda Rousey doing those weird shadowboxing clips where it looks like her arms are being dangled from a fork over a meatball. Or whatever the hell this is. In the full clip, there’s a part where he’s practicing combinations. His combinations look on point. He keeps whatever’s left of his knees bent, and throws with the kind of speed we saw climax to its fullest when he landed 70 punches in three seconds on Big Nog. His drill with Javier above looks more like the kind of strikes you’re trying to throw when looking to land pre or post-level change. However, it does contribute to what we know about Cain’s troubles.
Phil: Man that is about the ugliest single punch I have ever seen thrown in MMA, and I do not say that lightly. On second thoughts, it’s still gotta be Todd Duffee’s Sharkeisha Hook against Frank Mir, but you do kind of have to worry when you can’t even look good in sparring. I reference our recent preview of Charles David Liddell. Even at his physical prime, Cain was a hodgepodge of good and was bad technique: offensively he had a solid counter hook and kicking game, and his jab wasn’t a core offensive tool but worked well to disguise his level changes. Once in the clinch he was the terrifying head pressure, sorry boxing and single leg machine we all know and love, but his actual process of getting there was a bit haphazard. Bobbling the head then crashing right into the pocket or huge exaggerated lateral movements tended to look like what people tell you defensive fundamentals are, rather than serving any real purpose. If stuck outside the clinch for extended periods, then Cain was often in trouble.
David: I’ve always liked N’Gannou’s power game. A lot of fighters can hit hard. Just look at Jake Ellenberger. But where most fighters with big power shoot straight — looking to land the big money punch one way, in one direction — N’Gannou kind of goes wide at the same time — sweeping with big strikes to cover space that his movement otherwise limits him to. He doesn’t have the demeanor of a power striker though. He’s more about engagement: opportunities to engage are where his offense comes from; as opposed to flailing about, deliberately pressuring, or synergetically comboing. It’s part of what makes him flawed too. His instincts and his mechanics are at odds, but his strength and philosophy mask his flaws. Still, better tactics would make him a better fighter, and he’s gonna need every advantage against someone like Cain.
Phil: N’Gannou had something of a rollercoaster ride: from a perception as a technical savant who could pick up any move at will, to a scrub who had gotten lucky with some huge knockouts. In truth, there’s a lot of consistency across the course of his UFC career. He’s clearly a natural counterpuncher both by aptitude and preference, with an instinctive skill for picking up where an opponent’s head will be in exchanges. Much of the rest of his game has been buttressed by his freakish physicality: flaws in his wrestling defence weren’t going to get exposed by Luis Henrique. Similarly, heavyweight is not well-known for its large number of patient fighters, and so the fact that N’Gannou had basically no reliable tools to attack with if he’s not offered counter opportunities was obscured until Lewis.
Insight from past fights
David: Cain is generally pretty good at dealing with significantly larger men. N’Gannou is nothing like Kongo, Rothwell, or Lesnar at al – but I imagine his approach will be the exact same. He’ll level change, and grind against the fence, hoping to discombobulate opponents with the raw motion of combat. I don’t quite know how N’Gannou will react to that. I assume he’ll punish Velasquez in the clinch, but I don’t know that he’ll have enough time to land with enough power before the egg timer on his cardio is out.
Phil: So there are two warring narratives here: one says that Cain is a terrible matchup because of the wrestling, and another that says that no-one has really clinched up with N’Gannou without getting badly hurt for it, including Stipe.
X-Factors
David: Cain’s body. He’s the walking, talking, punching example of fighters being surrounded by a culture of “110 percent” no matter the costs. It’s as if his immediate circle of coaches and training partners have been stuck in a football coach’s bunker for the last 20 years. In other words: Cain is the Affliction version of Kimmy Schmidt.
Phil: *besides* the fact that Cain is held together with silly string and staples? Lest we forget, the NSAC didn’t license him last time out. After all the shambling wrecks we’ve seen get licensed over the years, just how screwed up do you actually have to be for them so say ‘no’?
Prognostication
David: I hate picking Cain. Because I feel like it’s quite possible for him to look good. Only for him to look bad his next fight. But I think he’ll look good in this fight. And I think he’ll do it by forcing N’Gannou to level change so much that Francis gets TKO’ed by motion sickness. Cain Velasquez by TKO, round 4.
Phil: I don’t trust Cain at all. He’s been out for three years, and while he has exact style to ruin N’Gannou down the stretch, I can’t trust his defense to not get him clocked and I can’t trust him to be healthy enough to survive. Francis N’Gannou by TKO, round 2.