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Boxing

Breakdown: Leo Santa Cruz vs. Rafael Rivera fight preview and prediction

This Sunday, PBC heads over to Fox for a world title fight when WBC Featherweight champion Leo Santa Cruz (35-1-1; 19 KO) defends his belt against Rafael Rivera (26-2-2; 17 KO). Santa Cruz vs. Rivera takes place this Saturday, February 16 and airs live on Fox with a fight time of 8:00 p.m. ET.

Leo Santa Cruz

  • True #1 – The 126 pound division is stacked, and Santa Cruz is the true king. His lone loss was to fellow Featherweight Carl Frampton in 2016, but he promptly avenged that loss.
  • 2 out of 9 – Though he stands at the top, the criticism of LSC has long been that he has not faced the very best opponents. There’s some validity there. He has the 1-1 record against Frampton and a pair of very good wins against Abner Mares, but of the 9 others in Ring Magazine’s Featherweight top 10, those are the only two opponents he has faced. This fight certainly won’t help that perception.
  • Volume puncher – That’s the name of the game where Santa Cruz is concerned, as he is the very definition of a high volume puncher. Consider these CompuBox stats from his two fights with Mares: he averaged 106 punches thrown per round (FW average is 59), 30 landed per round (17 is FW average), and in both fights finished strong with 45 punches landed in round 12. Volume.
  • 3rd division champ – Santa Cruz has been a champ at 118 pounds, a champ at 122 pounds, and is now champ at 126 pounds making his third title defense.
  • “Clean up the division” – That’s what LSC says will come next after this fight, as he says he’ll seek a unification fight with one of Josh Warrington, Gary Russell, or Oscar Valdez. All would be great fights, though there are hurdles to overcome in all of them. We’ll see what is to come.

Rafael Rivera

  • 24 years old – The young fighter has a good amount of fights and has been competing as a pro for 7 years, going pro just after his 18th birthday.
  • 1-2 run – He’s currently on a 1-2 run. He took a step up against JoJo Diaz in 2017 and lost a decision, then was again defeated by the undefeated Joet Gonzalez. He’s had one bounce-back fight since against a 10-14-1 opponent.
  • Low level opposition – The two times he’s really stepped up significantly, Rivera has lost. Most other fights have been against opponents coming in on losing streaks. In his entire career, he has only scored one win against an opponent coming in on a more than one fight winning streak, and he’s only ever faced 8 fighters with winning records. That’s not good.
  • Late replacement – Santa Cruz was originally set to face Miguel Flores, but Flores suffered an ankle injury while sparring in January and had to drop out, allowing Rivera in.
  • +1600 underdog – Rivera is at +1600, Santa Cruz at -10000, which, sadly, feels fair.

What else is on the card?

  • Omar Figueroa (27-0-1; 19 KO) vs. John Molina (30-7; 24 KO) – This is the reason to tune in, as these two have the potential to put on a truly great fight. Both are warriors who have some great fights under their belts and should match-up well to deliver the goods.

Final Verdict

The main event is a squash match, though Santa Cruz does deliver fun squash matches. But this show is worth watching for the Figueroa vs. Molina fight. Tune in early for that, then stick around for the main.
Prediction: Leo Santa Cruz, KO 3