The win probabilities for UFC 232’s five qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Jones-Gustafsson 2 and Cyborg-Nunes, see Tuesday’s piece.
Jon Jones (76.6%) over Alexander Gustafsson
Cris Cyborg (52.2%) over Amanda Nunes
Corey Anderson (51.5%) over Ilir Latifi
Carlos Condit (52.8%) over Michael Chiesa
Alexander Volkanovski (57.6%) over Chad Mendes
Current Bankroll: $9,728.00
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $10,125.37
The fight computer has one small bet with $24.32 on Volkanovski at +125 as of this writing (10:25am PT).
Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.
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