UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 staff picks and predictions

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC 232, and the majority of us are going with Jon Jones to defeat Alexander Gustafsson to win back the UFC light heavyweight title… and then we hold our collective breaths for the drug test results afterward. It’s a different story in the co-main event, as no one is picking Amanda Nunes to become a two-division champion by dethroning Cris Cyborg.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Note 2: You may notice “Shak” making his picks. Starting January 1st, Shakiel Mahjouri will be contributing as a Bloody Elbow staff writer. Welcome aboard, Shakiel!

Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Anton Tabuena: People might disagree, but I don’t think Jon Jones has looked like JON JONES in the cage since his first meeting against Cormier. That was four years ago. Even on the years he’s been dominant, Jones’ weakness (if you can even call it that) has always been his boxing. While he tries to talk about how he’s improved during all those suspensions, his hands still hasn’t really been that great on his last two contests. From a boxing standpoint, Jones particularly struggled defensively with Cormier’s speed, and on a few stretches — despite being a significantly less technical opponent — with OSP’s length as well. Stylewise, Gustafsson has the tools to cause a lot more problems for Jones.

All those “height” promos from their first fight were lame, but Gustafsson’s length does play a factor, as Jones can’t rely solely on his reach to compensate for the holes in his boxing defense. Gustafsson also has far better hands, better footwork, and as of their bouts the last few years, seems to be the much faster fighter too. Maybe rust affected Jones’ defense and reaction time, but if he returns as that same guy we’ve seen the last couple of years, I think there will be an upset. Call me crazy, but unless Jones gets through his excellent takedown defense and dominates on the ground, I think Gustafsson gets the finish on Saturday night. Alexander Gustafsson by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: It’d be a pretty fitting end to 2018 if another JacksonWink fighter lost inside the Octagon. And it absolutely could happen! Gustafsson has the tools to make like hell for Jones, especially since he’s the more technical offensive fighter who made the most of not having a massive reach disadvantage like other Jones opponents. That said, Gustafsson not only hasn’t fought for a longer period of time than Jones, but he’s had quite a few tough battles in the aftermath of the Jones loss, and his striking defense is just terrible. The runaround he did against both Daniel Cormier and Glover Teixeira is just not ideal. Plus, as much of an idiot Jones is outside the cage, he’s damn near genius inside of it. He landed plenty of offense on Gus the first time around, and his fundamentals may still not be that good, but they’ve gotten better. Perhaps the biggest key here — I am expecting mostly kickboxing with a bit of clinch fighting, but not too many takedowns completed by Jones — is whether Jones is willing to pressure Gustafsson and if he can do so effectively. Gustafsson isn’t comfortable fighting backwards, and it’s fair to question if he’s less comfortable reacting to getting hit since the Rumble KO. I believe Jones will rely heavily on kicks and body work to sap Gustafsson’s cardio and pull away in the later rounds, then talk about his humility in the post-fight interview, and fail another drug test for something non-turinabol related. Let’s face it though, Jones is the villain here and people want to see him lose and get knocked out doing so. Jon Jones by unanimous decision.

Fraser Coffeen: We’re just predicting the temporary outcome for Saturday night, right? Because we all know this is ultimately going to end up a No Contest. But for the time being, I have to say I both agree and disagree with Anton. It’s true that Jones has kind of plateaued (wow that’s a word with a lot of vowels strung together). When I think of his true dominance, I think of a fighter who was pushing the limits and evolving every single fight. And he hasn’t done that for some time now. Instead, he’s leveled off. Of course, where he’s leveled off is as the greatest fighter of all time (with a MONSTER asterisk next to it). And I thought he looked good against DC last time. Nothing there made me think he’s done, and nothing from Gus in recent fights has made me think he’s anything more than #3 in the division. Sorry. Jon Jones, UD

Victor Rodriguez: Jones is a fantastic once-ever fighter, and he’s undoubtedly going to put on a show. I’m worried that the may not be on his game here, with all of the distractions and everything surrounding the event. Then again, he did more while on drugs (by his own admission), and Alex hasn’t really made massive progressions since their first fight. Then again, Anton is right — Jones hasn’t really been that guy. Does he have to be in order to succeed this time around? He probably does. Gus still has amazing takedown defense and positioning, while having a more functional boxing game. I have no doubt that his team has been able to conjure the right kind of gameplan this time around, and Alex might just pull this off. Alexander Gustafsson by TKO.

Zane Simon: I’m glad the people picking Gus to win are picking him to finish, because unless he does, I can’t see him winning a decision. He has the offense to score on Jones and I do think that Jones really is uncomfortable fighting against opponents who can compete with him for size. But Gustafsson doesn’t have the defense and lately he hasn’t looked nearly as confident about his ability to take punishment (even if his chin seems okay). The kind of turning your back and running footwork, and reactive wrestling that marked his fights against Blachowicz and Teixeira not only aren’t nearly as likely to work against Jones, but they’re also the kinds of things that could push judges to score close rounds against him. If Jones and Gus are both landing offense, but Gus is going for takedowns and not getting them or turning and running out of the pocket… it’s just not great body language. Jones is more likely to be the guy standing tough, trading, and answering back when things get rough and I can’t look past that. Jon Jones by decision.

Staff picking Jones: Nick, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Phil, Stephie (but rooting for Gustafsson), Fraser, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Gustafsson: Anton, Bissell, Shak, Victor

Cris Cyborg vs. Amanda Nunes

Anton Tabuena: Nunes will probably be the best fighter Cyborg has faced in years, but I still think she will be the stronger and far more technical between the two. Cris Cyborg by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Nunes is a dangerous, well-rounded fighter whose gas tank problems have seemingly gone away, and yet she’s still outgunned offensively because Cris Cyborg is Cris Cyborg. Speaking of gas tank concerns, we saw Cyborg have no issues fading against Holly Holm, and her 5th round proved to be one of her strongest offensive showings in that fight. Yes, you can say Nunes is Cyborg’s toughest opponent, but the reverse is true. Cyborg can very easily set a pace Nunes can’t match, and she’s a great clinch fighter who will be exceptionally hard for Nunes to take down and outgrapple. You have to give Nunes a chance due to the speed advantage she’ll presumably have, but Cyborg is just going to be too strong and tough for her to break down. Cris Cyborg by TKO, round 3.

Victor Rodriguez: Cris has excellent cardio and the most venomous boxing game in women’s MMA. Even with that, I don’t know how she can deal with the range and volume Amanda brings, while also strong as hell. Cris still has that cardio I mentioned, and it could make all the difference in a five-rounder like this one. Amanda is probably going to be the toughest out for Cris’ UFC run, but I have to go with the craftier veteran with better conditioning and aggressive streak. Cris Cyborg by decision.

Zane Simon: Nunes may have a speed advantage. And that could shock Cyborg out of the gate. Can she actually turn that into hurting Cyborg or backing her off? Can she keep it up if Cyborg forces her to fight off her back foot for multiple rounds? Can she turn up the pace to match Cyborg’s output in rounds 4 & 5? Those are all questions that I don’t have the answer to. But I know Cyborg is tough, and I know she’s can pressure well, and I know she can fight hard and consistently for 25 minutes. Cris Cyborg by TKO, round 4.

Staff picking Cyborg: Bissell, Nick, Shak, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Phil, Anton, Stephie, Fraser, Victor, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Nunes:

Carlos Condit vs. Michael Chiesa

Anton Tabuena: This is probably me picking with my heart instead of my head. Carlos Condit by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Condit’s takedown defense has never been good and Chiesa is probably going to take him down. We’ll get some fun scrambles but it’s also been ages since Condit tapped anyone out, and Chiesa is likely going to be too strong and be able to put him in a bad spot and choke him out. This fight may sadden me. Michael Chiesa by submission, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Two of the good guys in the sport, and it’s hard to want either one of them to lose. It’s an interesting matchup: Chiesa really isn’t a consistent or dynamic takedown threat and is a Sikjitsu-quality striker. The problem with Condit recently is that he seems to have settled into the style that he used against Nick Diaz, and that’s not really an optimal approach for him against anyone but Diaz. If he fights as a points-scoring range kickboxer his porous defense is always going to let him down. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked at all by Chiesa just settling into the mid range and getting kicked to pieces. He didn’t do that against Pettis though, to his credit, and Condit isn’t the opportunistic sub threat that Pretty Tony is. Conversely, his tendency to try to get back to his feet at all costs has led him into choke subs more than once. Sigh. Michael Chiesa by submission, round 3.

Fraser Coffeen: Chiesa is the obvious pick here, but his blatant fanboyism towards Condit in the lead-up has me concerned that he’s going to be mentally off his game here. Like Anton, I don’t think I’m picking wisely here, but I’m doing it anyway. Carlos Condit, KO, R1

Zane Simon: The biggest concern for me about Carlos Condit’s recent losses is that he looked reluctant to pull the trigger standing. A Carlos Condit who doesn’t throw volume is mostly just a fighter that gets hit a lot and taken down easily. Chiesa’s not the kind of striker to make me think he puts fear into Condit early, but… neither was Neil Magny? Either way, if Condit gives Chiesa time to set up his takedown entries, I don’t trust him to be able to come out ahead on scrambles. Michael Chiesa via submission, Round 2.

Staff picking Condit: Tim, Anton, Fraser
Staff picking Chiesa: Bissell, Nick, Shak, Harry, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Victor

Ilir Latifi vs. Corey Anderson

Mookie Alexander: WHO DARE DISRESPECTS THE SLEDGEHAMMER?! WHO?! SHOW YOURSELVES YOU UNGRATEFUL FOOLS! Ilir Latifi by KO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Despite his freaky strength, I’m not sure how much I trust Latifi as a finisher, so it’s hard to see how Anderson brainfarts himself into getting clattered. I’m not necessarily saying that it’s not going to happen, and Beastin’ 25/8 is eternally innovative when it comes to ways of getting himself dusted, but Latifi has also been trapped on the end of range and volume games too many times for me to be able to trust him. Sorry O Great One. Corey Anderson by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Ilir Latifi (peace be upon him) is too good for you goddamned plebes. Bow before your new god. Only blood will absolve you. The final form will come, and he is pure sex, personified. Whom among you are worthy? None, I say. Ilir Latifi by KO.

Zane Simon: I really should pick Latifi here. Athletic light heavyweights with incredibly incomplete games but fight finishing power seem to win more often than not in the UFC. And Latifi is that. On the other hand, Anderson is a very complete, well rounded fighter who is consistently improving and looking like a much improved striker… but also has tended to get obliterated by power. Still, the Teixeira fight gives me heart that he’s turned a corner and is becoming just technical enough to not get caught by one bomb of a right hand thrown every 30 seconds. Corey Anderson by decision.

Staff picking Latifi: Bissell, Nick, Shak, Harry, Mookie, Tim, Anton, Stephie, Fraser, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Anderson: Phil, Zane

Chad Mendes vs. Alex Volkanovski

Mookie Alexander: Volkanovski is just a fire hydrant of fun, but this seems like a step too far for him. He throws with a lot of power without having earth-shattering power, and his devastating ground-and-pound is pretty much destined to be nullified by the sheer unlikeliness of him being able to outwrestle Mendes. Add in that Mendes is the better striker and I suspect Volkanovski’s aggressive pace will be used against him and he’s going to be put away. Chad Mendes by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: I don’t think this is a very good matchup for Volkanovski. Meeting opponents head on, he tends to overwhelm them with sheer offense, but he offers very little defensively. In particular, he marches forward with his head in exactly the same place and immediately tries to punch into the clinch. Mendes is a blazing fast starter, and it’s hard not to see him belting Volkanovski as hard as possible very early. I suspect Volkanovski can withstand one or two counters, but will keep doggedly ploughing into them for an ugly stoppage. Chad Mendes by TKO, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: See, I’m happy about this because it’s the big step Volkanovski deserves, but I worry it’ll be too big a step. This should be quality fun, but Mendes has such a great skillset that it may be Volkanovski’s ceiling. How much punishment can Alex take, exactly? And will he be able to find Chad’s chin to test it? I love Volkanovksi, but I don’t like these odds. Chad Mendes by decision.

Zane Simon: Volkanovski just doesn’t look like a diverse enough striker yet. For a fighter who clearly has power, KOs have been rare because everyone knows exactly what punch is coming and when. If Mendes can shut down his wrestling, as seems likely, can Volkanovski catch him cold just throwing big right hands. If he had a left hook I might be willing to give him the nod just via toughness and willingness to brawl it out. But without that I have to take Mendes to out hustle him and maybe even knock him out. Chad Mendes via Decision.

Staff picking Mendes: Nick, Shak, Harry, Tim, Phil, Anton, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Victor, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Volkanovski: Bissell

Andrei Arlovski vs. Walt Harris

Mookie Alexander: Well this could be boring as hell. Harris is powerful but not a good defensive wrestler, so he’s capable of knocking Arlovski stiff, but just as capable of getting taken down and losing the same way Stefan Struve did. Blargh. Andrei Arlovski by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Urgh. Arlovski has technically improved but his actual strengths are steadily sloughing away. His ability to blitz out and hurt people has declined as his wrestling and technical boxing have gotten more play. Harris isn’t a technical marvel and his defensive wrestling is in particular a concern, but he’s big and dynamic. This could be a dismal long-range kickboxing match where both men just hunt for their power hand. Walt Harris by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: Could Arlovski wrestle his way to a win here? Maybe… but Arlovski’s wrestling seems to work best when everything is working well, it’s rarely ever his only tool on the way to a win. Harris isn’t the most diverse or complete talent, but he throws straight shots with speed and power and has done a much better job lately learning to keep his preferred range. If he can keep Arlovski on the outside, I can see him out working him for at least 2 rounds if not picking up the KO. Walt Harris via KO, round 1.

Staff picking Arlovski: Bissell, Tim, Stephie, Mookie, Victor
Staff picking Harris: Nick, Shak, Harry, Phil, Anton, Fraser, Zane, Dayne to

Megan Anderson vs. Cat Zingano

Anton Tabuena: I think Zingano will end up striking with Anderson for stretches, which will cost her the fight. Megan Anderson by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Either Zingano gets into prolonged striking exchanges with Anderson and gets sliced and diced into a TKO loss, or she just outwrestles Anderson and puts on a grappling clinic and potentially finishes her. I side with the latter, even though I don’t really like gambling on picking Zingano to go an entire fight without a horrible strategic decision. Cat Zingano by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Megan Anderson got outwrestled by Holly Holm and Cat Zingano is a better wrestler than Holly Holm. She’s also someone who historically makes awful in-cage decisions, but her last fight was smart enough that I’ll trust her to take the path of least resistance and not windmill her way into getting instantly finished. Cat Zingano by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: There’s a great chance that Anderson comes out of the gate looking like a sniper and hurting Zingano early and often. But Zingano is never one to just let herself be run over. She’ll force action wherever she can, whenever she can. And she’s big enough and strong enough to make that a real danger, even when tired. Anderson, on the other hand, tends to fall apart a bit when pushed, and settles for trading single strikes. She’s also just not a great wrestler or grappler. Both things that Zingano can do pretty decently. Cat Zingano by submission, round 3.

Staff picking Anderson: Harry, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Zingano: Bissell, Nick, Shak, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Victor, Zane, Dayne

Petr Yan vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade

Mookie Alexander: This is gon’ be gooooooood. Yan is the more diverse striker but Andrade is a deadly finisher with power. They’re both willing to throw down, and I suspect it’ll be Yan who can hurt Andrade down the stretch and put him away. Petr Yan by TKO, round 3.

Phil Mackenzie: The highlight of the undercard. Yan’s tendency to not offer his opponents any respect early may lead to him getting into trouble early against an explosive burst fighter like de Andrade, who appears to be coming into his own of late, but it’s also notable just how much Andrade wilted under Rob Font’s consistent offense. Yan is going to throw one-twos into his horrific clinch game until he finds his timing and it will be super violent and good. Petr Yan by TKO round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: PETR YAN TIME IS VIOLENCE TIME. Petr Yan by TKO.

Zane Simon: This is a hell of a tough fight. D’Silva is a serious dude to fight as a young prospect looking to pick up wins. He’s got a herky jerky rhythm, coupled with elite speed and power, and improved combination striking. He’s also got a ton of experience. The reason I’m still picking Yan is all down to defense. Petr Yan can counter punch, he can sit down in the pocket, avoid strikes and fire in combination, and he can pressure. D’Silva is a good pressure fighter, but when he’s on his back foot, his game has fallen apart hard. I expect D’Silva will start strong and look good early, but as Yan starts to land counters and back him up, he’ll find himself against the fence and getting pieced up by Yan’s aggressive combinations. Petr Yan by decision.

Staff picking Yan: Bissell, Nick, Shak, Harry, Anton, Stephie, Fraser, Victor, Zane, Dayne, Mookie
Staff picking Andrade: Tim

B.J. Penn vs. Ryan Hall

Anton Tabuena: As if it wasn’t sad enough seeing Penn get beaten up by all these talented strikers, the UFC made sure we see him get outstruck by a pure BJJ guy too. I think he will eventually hurt Penn on the feet, before finishing the fight on the mat. Penn’s outdated BJJ game won’t stack up to Hall’s, and long term MMA fans will surely be collectively depressed again after this. Oh well, if this is what it takes for the 40-year-old to realize that he should hang it up, then so be it. Ryan Hall by submission.

Mookie Alexander: This is a lose-lose fight. If Penn wins he’s going to keep fighting and be booked against some dude who will maul him. If he loses then we’ll all just be sad. At least this fight won’t hurt his brain all that much. Ryan Hall by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Are you people honestly telling me that you don’t think this will be funny? BJ is going to plod slowly around after a hairy unathletic guy, getting kicked a bazillion times while looking like the most miserable person in the world. It’s going to be the dumbest looking awfulness since… Ryan Hall’s last fight against Gray Maynard? I respect anything which can make this sport look that bad. Ryan Hall by unanimous decision.

Fraser Coffeen: I still don’t understand why we’re not doing BJ Penn vs. CM Punk. Ryan Hall, decision

Victor Rodriguez: Yeah, I suppose there’s worse matchups for Penn in 2018. Why can’t this be over already? If he wins, it’ll boost his confidence to chase another. I hate this, and so should you. Only way this is decent is if it turns into a grappling match. Ryan Hall by decision.

Zane Simon: Ryan Hall by submission (sadness).

Staff picking Penn: Tim
Staff picking Hall: Bissell, Nick, Shak, Harry, Phil, Anton, Stephie, Fraser, Victor, Zane, Dayne, Mookie

Andre Ewell vs. Nathaniel Wood

Phil Mackenzie: Despite how much I’d like to see Wood doing well, he does appear to be another prospect in the Duquesnoy mold who starts bumping up against his physical limits in the UFC pretty quickly. If we think of him as the next evolution of Brad Pickett, then I find myself thinking of how Pickett always struggled to get past a consistent jab. I don’t trust Ewell’s wrestling or the general depth of his game, but he’s huge and athletic and happy to sit on that jab for round after round. Andre Ewell by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Two rangy outfighters, one a pressure counter-puncher, the other a pressure sniper. Both men with major gaps in their games defensively and both men with technique that may just not quite be deep enough to thrive at elite levels. Still, I have a lot more faith in Wood’s process than Ewell’s as well as his wrestling and grappling. Ewell seems to be at his best when opponents are just overcome by his athleticism and diversity. But Wood’s response to a tough fight is to brawl it out and his dedication to counters when he’s on the front foot keeps him a lot more trustworthy moment to moment. Ewell’s ground game also just looks not great, if that’s where the fight ends up. Nathaniel Wood by decision.

Staff picking Ewell: Bissell, Tim, Phil, Victor
Staff picking Wood: Nick, Shak, Harry, Anton, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Zane, Dayne

Uriah Hall vs. Bevon Lewis

Phil Mackenzie: Lewis looks like a solid athlete who has some skill everywhere, but his baseline approach looks to be to potshot at range. He won his DWTNCS fight in the clinch, but only once his opponent took it there for him. Despite his many flaws, Hall is not going to do that and it is tremendously inadvisable to engage him in a mid-range kickboxing bout. Uriah Hall by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: Lewis does one thing really well. That’s clinch offense. Does he do it so well that he can just annihilate Hall there? No idea, but I kind of doubt it. Hall is still an elite athletic specimen, and tends to do his best work when fighters try to take it to him and run him over. Lewis doesn’t look like the same kind of hulking wildman that Derek Brunson is, he’s not half as experienced, and I’m not sure Brunson would have won if that fight hand gone longer than a round. A prove-it fight for Lewis, but likely just a first stumbling block. Uriah Hall via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Hall: Bissell, Shak, Tim, Phil, Anton, Mookie, Fraser, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Lewis: Nick, Harry, Stephie, Victor

Curtis Millender vs. Siyar Bahadurzada

Anton Tabuena: I’m a fan of Millender’s kickboxing game. Siyar has the power and the tools to test him, but I think Millender will be far too slick on the feet here. Curtis Millender by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Despite how long Bahadurzada has been in the UFC, he feels like way more of an X-factor than Millender does. Is he actually good? He has some great natural timing, is a tough and powerful athlete, and has been improving his wrestling game. Is he actually… good though? I’m going to say no, but I genuinely can’t tell. Curtis Millender by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Siyar’s got some great skills, but can be flustered by faster opponents. Millender’s also huge by comparison, and has a better range game with more complete striking. Curtis Millender by decision.

Zane Simon: Fighters like Curtis Millender have never beaten Siyar Bahadurazada… at least not in the last decade. That’s not to say Millender couldn’t be the first, but what’s tended to frustrate Siyar has been powerful grinders who could make him pay for a slightly footslow, awkward style and mediocre wrestling and grappling. In pure kickboxing bouts, even when he’s technically out-gunned, Bahadurzada’s hand speed, accuracy and power have seen him through. Every single time. Millender has shown a much better counter game and much more defensive consistency in his last couple bouts. But I can’t help getting the feeling that he’ll be the one leading and Siyar’s looping overhand right will find the button one time too many. Siyar Bahadurzada via KO, round 2.

Staff picking Millender: Nick, Shak, Harry, Phil, Anton, Mookie, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Bahadurzada: Bissell, Tim, Stephie, Fraser, Zane

Brian Kelleher vs. Montel Jackson

Phil Mackenzie: Jackson impressed me a lot against Ricky Simon, a nightmare style matchup which ended up being more competitive than it had any right being. Don’t get me wrong: Kelleher should win this one: he has major experience advantages and a more complete game. But something about how Jackson looks leads me to think that without that wrestling game to worry about that he can walk Kelleher into counters. Montel Jackson by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: I’m not crazy am I? We did just see Jackson lose this fight, right? An ultra aggressive power wrestle boxer that was able to take him down and control him just enough to negate the range striking prowess and obvious physical gifts in a too-green Jackson’s arsenal? Maybe he’s improved enough since then to stuff the shot? Maybe Kelleher will be a deer in the headlights against a fighter as big and rangy as Jackson at 135? Maybe Kelleher will get too wild and get caught? But if not, I can’t help but think he’ll out-grind and out-hustle Jackson for 3 rounds. Brian Kelleher by decision.

Staff picking Kelleher: Bissell, Shak, Harry, Tim, Anton, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Jackson: Nick, Phil, Victor