Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamaru Usman headlines the TUF 28 Finale this November 30, 2018 at the Pearl Theatre at Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.
Stats
Record: Rafael dos Anjos 28-10 | Kamaru Usman 13-1
Odds: Rafael dos Anjos +230| Kamaru Usman -250
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: I’m not sure how we ended up here. Dos Anjos went from high profile matchups to lightweight champion, to high profile welterweight matchups, to whatever this is. He’s basically the UFC’s sheepdog, herding all the contenders into a digestible spot for the audience and the organization into understanding how the fight hierarchy works. After rebounding from his loss to Tony Ferguson, RDA switched weightclasses, and looked great against all odds. At least until he ran into Colby Covington. RDA has a lot to be proud of in his career. He’s fought pretty much everyone he needed to and everyone he didn’t need to. Unfortunately for him this fight belongs in the latter category.
Phil: RDA has always been the man willing to take the fights that no-one else would. He took on Khabib at lightweight, fought Benson Henderson on the bounceback from his title fight loss, and fought Robbie Lawler. Both Covington and Usman fit into this category fairly neatly. Usman in particular has been ducked repeatedly on his way up. In general, Dos Anjos’ consistent technical improvements, relentless self-belief and hard-nosed style have made him a joy to watch.
David: Usman is an interesting foil, by any standard. Like one of those popup paintings you have to focus on for the object to appear, Usman is promoted as the fighter he isn’t. If you just watched the UFC’s promotional machine cut the usual b-roll of Joe Rogan popping head vessels and Jon Anik screaming “OH!” you’d think Usman was a BIG STRIKER, and promotions can never articulate nuance. Usman is every bit as threatening as he looks for a welterweight, but he didn’t dominate Russian rappers with BIG RIGHT HANDS.
Phil: Usman is reminiscent of Tyron Woodley, in that attempts to plug himself into the UFC’s promotional machine have tended to backfire (“that was me at 30%” against Meek), but when he’s not trying to fit himself into the UFC’s one-size-fits-some mould, an image of a thoughtful, smart fighter emerges. I was impressed when I read about him being the backup for the Woodley-Till fight, where he put himself through a nightmarish weight cut for essentially no reason, yet still accepted the outcome with grace and equanimity (“I wanted them to have their moment. My moment will come.”)
What’s at stake?
David: A lot for Usman, who the UFC is pushing to be a serious contender — and who has earned the right to be pushed. I just gotta feel for RDA. He’s like a stressed out version of Clay Guida: it’s nice to get the big fights, but not when people have expectations: like that RDA would defeat racism with a single calf slicer against Covington.
Phil: Covington definitely has next, but they have yet to book that fight. I would assume that the winner has next, but neither of these guys are popular enough that I can’t see them getting leapfrogged. RDA in particular would probably have to fight Ponzinibbio.
Where do they want it?
David: What I’ve always appreciated about RDA is his raw intestinal fortitude. He’s a walking pair of cojones, and his fight plan often resembles his sheer volition: moving forward, pressuring, and doing it all violently. I’m, of course, biased. I wanted to see Anthony Pettis succeed. In those situations, I often weep for my favorite, but when RDA just came at Pettis full stop, and didn’t stop punching until everyone in the room was dead — who could complain? While RDA’s style is somewhat limiting — he pressures forward and tries to get submissions if he gets the takedown — there’s effectiveness in ignoring nuance. Sometimes a general gameplan is better than a specific tactic, and dos Anjos executes this philosophy with violent aplomb. When he’s on, he cuts low with some of the stronger leg kicks in the business, swings in with a tough overhand left, and has a top heavy submission game that never stops working (either with general control, or tactical positioning). In recent years, the problem with dos Anjos game is that there’s a particular style that doesn’t favor him: the aggro-wrestler.
Phil: Dos Anjos is a fascinating case study of a fighter improving dramatically while retaining his essential flaws. A top control grappler in his early years, he became the archetypal Cordeiro pressure fighter as he improved his striking. It’s one thing to say that RDA is only comfortable moving forwards, but he’s had matchups against fighters where pressure is not exactly the historical way to get to them (Diaz, Lawler) and has still mowed them down. His offense is not just powerful, or technical, but it is multidimensional. He throws evil round kicks to the leg and body, he’s become increasingly comfortable as a body puncher, and his clinch has become as nasty as his top game. If an opponent can’t find a single major area to shut him down in, then all those different pieces just tend to overwhelm them. That being said, if an opponent does have a major edge, then his tendency to use every aspect of his game always means that he engages them in their area of strength. In particular, that clinch game is phenomenal but he is often unable to stop his opponents from engaging him there- he retreats in straight lines, or just bites down and swings.
David: Despite Usman’s stature, and promotional status, he’s not quite who he’s billed as. Yes, he has power in his hands. Except he doesn’t knock many people out. Yes, he has Doomsday level strength. But his top control hasn’t leveled a city block. Yes, he can wrestle. But sometimes he bites down for a series of chingasos. If you’re noticing a pattern here it’s that Usman is not a complete fighter. He’s a fighter who works from the strength of his parts — like the series of one-two combinations he threw over and over again on Warlley Alves — rather than the sum — Sean Strickland’s not a bad fighter, but when you’re billed as a human hulk, Strickland is not the guy I should be seeing trading paint with you until the final bell. There are a lot of reasons for that, but ultimately, Usman succeeds because the disparate parts of his game that work, but aren’t synced with an overlapping strategy remain significant enough on their own. If he wants top control, not many fights will sprawl out. If he wants to brawl, not many fighters will engage. Et cetera. He plods around a little, but when the flip gets switched, he’s a lot to handle. I still see Sergio Moraes unconsciously crab rolling away to safety in my dreams (don’t ask).
Phil: Usman is a strange fighter: while sometimes people get a bit too much hype on the way up, it occasionally feels like Usman is conversely a little underplayed. He is somewhat wooden on the feet, he occasionally has absolutely terrible defensive reactions but… he’s also never really been in any trouble at all in his UFC career thus far? Like, at all? And he’s fought some pretty good names: Strickland, Edwards, Alves, Moraes etc. And yet despite those flaws, he’s still a decent favourite over a perennial elite talent in RDA. There are a few things which really make Usman work as a fighter: freakish physical strength (what former BE Alum Coach Mike called ‘Martian android strength’), excellent cardio, and a good strategic head for understanding what he needs to do. Usman is not a natural pressure fighter, lacking a jab or the ability to throw without being fully planted on his feet, and in general not having the kind of volume necessary to drown opponents. However, he neutralized Strickland and Alves by having them backed into the fence from the get-go. He’s not a counterpuncher, but he managed to replicate Woodley’s boring but effective defensive striking performance against Demian Maia, where he shucked off takedowns and simply out-powered Maia on the feet. Wrestling-wise, he’s happy attacking front headlock and snapdown positions or working for single-legs and lower body chains, and has a nice double leg as well. His ability to pass isn’t phenomenal, but he works consistently from top position and like many successful wrestling transitions, has an unpleasant ability to work from the top ride while stripping away posting limbs.
Insight from past fights
David: There are a lot of fights to pick from: from both men. For Usman, it’s the moments in fights: Strickland thwarting off his attack late in the third round, for example. For RDA, it’s the styles in fights: Covington, Ferguson, Khabib, and Alvarez easily fending off takedowns to move forward with their fists. Even though the history favors Usman, dos Anjos has proven time and time again that he’s no pushover: especially in fights where he’s the underdog. Part of this is purely coincidental: dos Anjos isn’t a big name, and what happened wouldn’t have happened any other way. But I do think dos Anjos draws a modest amount of psychological strength from it: something about being expected to lose allows him to strip away any emotion and get down to brass tacks like he did against Pettis.
Phil: Covington was the “can he beat a wrestler” test for RDA again, and this time the answer was no… sort of? The fight was extremely close, and largely hinged on a tight fifth round. More than that, Covington set and kept a pace which Usman simply can’t. I do think he can match and exceed Covington if and when he gets to the clinch: he’s bigger, more powerful, and a more technical wrestler.
X-Factors
David: Nothing crazy happened at the weigh-in, right? Sorry. I’ve been keyed in on more important news: like cryptocurrency fraud from two celebrities, or the man that shot his d— off in a meat market.
Phil:Hey, let’s be happy that the crypto craze didn’t embed itself into MMA as heavily as I feared it might at some point. Sorry Rory / Jon Fitch, but looks like the Evil Central Bankers Controlled by a Globalist Elite win this round.
Prognostication
David: It’s hard to say. I don’t either guy is a stereotype of their perception: RDA as auto-loser to aggro wrestlers, and Usman as an aloof BIG GUY. I think RDA showed more in his loss to Covington (then again I don’t think Covington is particularly good), Ferguson, and Alvarez than is commonly attributed. And I think that Usman is progressively getting better instead of “has flaws.” Still, in the absence of better judgment, I gotta pick Usman. When all else is equal, being young and strong is probably better. Kamaru Usman by Decision.
Phil: Usman needs to fight a defined pressure fight to win this matchup, and he’s shown himself to be determined and smart- this is one of the advantages of being “rote” (as Usman is) is that it also translates to being coachable, and able to work to a gameplan. In that case, the plan is pressure forward, get to the clinch, push RDA up against the cage. Get hit, soak it up, maybe lose a round or two but keep moving forwards no matter what. Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision.