Editor’s note: Unfortunately, it’s true. Evil Greg Jackson (stagename: Phil MacKenzie) will not be with us today. Why? I have no idea. Unfortunately Bloody Elbow writers have to make weight as well. Fortunately, Bloody Elbow takes health risks seriously.
Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio headlines UFC Fight Night 140 this November 17, 2018 at the Estadio Mary Terán de Weiss in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
One sentence summary
Black Ernie vs. Brazilian Bert
Stats
Record: Neil Magny 21-6 | Santiago Ponzinibbio 26-3
Odds: Neil Magny +195 | Santiago Ponzinibbio -215
History / Introduction to the fighters
Re: Magny: Magny continues what I’ve always considered an improbable run, not because he never had the talent to be good, but because he’s such an aesthetically different fighter. The fighter beating the badly-grilled flank steak out of Johny Hendricks (quick aside: everyone talks about what a nightmare it is to spell Ponzinibbio even though phonetically, there’s only one anomaly — the extra ‘b’ — but can I just say how much more trouble I have spelling Hendricks’ first name? Two n’s, or no h: pick one dadgummit!), is a far cry from the fighter who seemed a little lost against Sergio Moraes and Seth Baczynski (of course these are the names I have to spell next).
Re: Ponz: Somewhere along the way Magny figured out his reach, his talents, and maximized both. Where Magny has struggled to find his own identity, Ponzinibbio has been keenly aware of his since jump street. Santiago should have been the breakthrough TUF star (in as much as anyone’s a TUF star at this point), but a broken hand cascaded into an unfortunate series of events, in which his first UFC fight ending up being against the underrated Ryan LaFlare. Ponzinibbio is pretty much just a Michael Bay film: nothing fancy. Just explosions and fit flesh.
What’s at stake?
It’s hard to tell. Technically, both fighters should be number one contenders with Ponz beating Gunnar Nelson and Mike Perry, and Magny coming off wins over Carlos Condit and Craig White. Whatever you think of those names, they’re high profile, but Dana is more interesting in hearing Colby Covington stir s—t and maybe anxiously waiting for Tyron Woodley to lose. Everything else appears secondary at welterweight.
Where do they want it?
Re: Magny: You can see why Magny has struggled to find an identity: he’s kind of good…well, everywhere. That ability to adapt, and fight wherever the bout goes is a blessing and a curse. One the one hand, he can prevent offense with his versatility. On the other hand, it keeps him from fighting to his strengths. MMA coaches have a tendency to stress keeping the kitchen clean when it comes to making dinner. “Learn how to grapple, or strike even if you suck at them so you don’t get blown out,” you can hear them say. Except if you have fighters keep the kitchen clean at the cost of making dinner, that’s great, except no one’s getting fed. That has been Magny’s issue in a nutshell: he’s trying to make dinner by keeping the kitchen clean instead of whipping something sweet and savory. So he grapples when his opponent presses, or even when he’s pressing himself.
It’s gotten him in trouble, and still does, but his calm and collected manner is perhaps its own reward.
Re: Ponz: I often wonder if Ponz would have benefited from having an identity crisis like Magny. Santiago is a successful fighter (well, both are, obviously), but his style seems to succeed in spite of itself. Though Ponzinibbio is a classic pressure fighter, there’s not much variety to his game. He stalks with an overhand right, a left hook, the odd stream of kicks, and oddly enough it’s during wild exchanges that the jab actually gets chambered. His general angle of approach and raw power make him formidable enough that I’m kind of surprised he doesn’t have the high profile matchups that Magny does.
Insight from past fights
I’ve already talked about Magny’s issues, so let me focus on Ponzinibbio. He’s in a weird spot because the matchups that don’t favor him are the ones you’d think he has a 50/50 shot in. Although his fight with Lorenz Larkin was kind of just In The Mouth of Madness style swinging, I think there’s at least a small pattern to be gleaned from — which is that more versatile strikers will exploit his lack of shot selection.
X-Factors
As far as I know, neither man killed themselves to cut weight, and even seemed to be rather cordial with each other at the weigh-ins.
Prognostication
I could absolutely see Ponzinibbio just blasting the hell out of Magny at some random interval. For the most part, Magny hasn’t been successfully blitzed though. The one guy who did (Lorenz Larkin) also successfully blitzed Ponz as well, and the outcome was nothing more than a coin toss IMO. Patterns tell me more than results, like climate to weather, and I just think Ponzinibbio has shown himself to be vulnerable against versatile strikers not because he’s not tough enough, but because he doesn’t have many point of entries. Doesn’t mean this is easy fight to pick. Still, Neil Magny by Decision.