Justin Gaethje vs. James Vick headlines UFC Lincoln this August 25, 2018 at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska.
One sentence summary:
David: BIG RIGHT HAND
Phil: Two men clash with SIX… COMBINED… SUBMISSIONS
Stats:
Record: Justin Gaethje 18-2 | James Vick 13-1
Odds: Justin Gaethje +125 | James Vick -135
History / Introduction to Both Fighters
David: Gaethje is everything we’ve wanted in an action fighter and more. It’s the ‘more’ part that leaves us wanting a bit less. As in, it’s great to give us an action fight. But Gaethje’s fights border on chaos, and you can’t help but wonder if all that chaos isn’t limiting some very real, refined, and elite talent he possesses. 20 years ago, we’d be putting up Rocky Balbao statues in Arvada, Colorado in his name. Now we’re kind of hoping he’s more Apollo than Rocko. This fight, unfortunately, doesn’t look to be a departure from the usual interaction. Vick will be happy to trade, and he can.
Phil: Justin Gaethje has been… sort of what a lot of us expected in the UFC? He’s done serious damage and cemented himself as a top 15 fighter, and he’s also taken hellacious damage and has lost more than he won. He’s been absolute must-watch TV and there isn’t a lightweight out there that it wouldn’t be fun to see him go up against. That being said, we’re also starting to be confronted with physical reality. He is absorbing absolutely horrific amounts of punishment. The idea that people are trading away their health for our entertainment is a basic tenet of MMA, but it’s rare that the scale of the two sides of the equation is quite so large. I’d like to see him fight a bit smarter.
David: To be honest, I’m not sold on Vick. And not just because his trainer is pure trash. I just think his quality of competition has been wanting. This will be the first time he’ll be fighting an opponent ranked in the top 10, which gives me pause given how long he’s been inside the octagon. That said, he’s earning his keep.
Phil: James Vick has struggled his way up through the ranks with almost no favours. It’s the kind of underdog story which would be inspiring were he not fighting out of everyone’s favourite rape camp. Still, there’s no doubting that he’s a tough, skillful fighter who has earned his spot on a main event. I just wish he was a bit easier to root for.
What’s at stake?
David: A lot. For Gaethje, a return to the proverbial drawing board. The UFC won’t cut him if he loses three in a row. All of his UFC bouts have been fight of the night winners. This is a young fighter who’s already been surrounded by discussions of his longevity thanks to the human cockfighting appearance of his fights. Although I believe the talent is in him to adjust. If he does win, he has the tools — harnessed correctly — to be a major player moving forward.
Phil: The lightweight logjam has some resolution at the top with Khabib taking on McGregor, but there’s no chance for the winner of this to get in on that action. A fight with Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson or Dustin Poirier might be a bit more feasible, however. The loser will struggle to get back into contention a little, just because this division is so merciless (and Gaethje would be riding a three fight losing streak).
Where do they want it?
Phil: Vick is one of the few genuinely good long fighters in the UFC. At a vast 6’3 for the division, he does everything that Stefan Struve should up at heavyweight. He keeps his eyes on his opponent, he doesn’t overcommit to shots, and he keeps his hands active in the space between himself and the opponent. This means stiff arms, parries and a generous dose of (probably) accidental eye pokes. Despite his size, he keeps a good pace while delivering a steady diet of jabs and kicks to his opponents, and has a number of tricks for dealing with opponents who dip their heads in on him. Uppercuts and step-knees should serve him well against someone like Gaethje. He also likes the snapdown and the front headlock series, but doesn’t overuse it if he’s taken down, preferring to wall walk and get back to his feet. In general his game makes a lot of sense.
David: Vick understands the sacred maxim for tall fighters — less is more. If you’re throwing spinning back kicks, and rolling thunders on opponents who barely reach your nipple, you’re probably doing it wrong. As such, Vick makes expert use of his length, staying active, but not wild, and throwing with power without being overly intense. He doesn’t leave anything to chance, knowing full well his opponents have to cheat if they want to pressure. Despite that, his offense is pretty varied. With a selection of knees, uppercuts, and chokes, he’s never dealing violence from mere proximity.
Phil: The UFC version of Justin Gaethje is not that different from his WSOF incarnation, albeit with a few areas that he’s tightened up on. He’s a little more defensively sound (which doesn’t mean much in a vacuum, but pays disproportionate dividends considering how much violence he puts out), and his punches are a little shorter and cleaner than they used to be. He’s one of the few fighters that really uses a high guard as a trigger, waiting for shots to land on it then coming back with the sweeping hook. If opponents don’t attack, he just leg kicks them. Sometimes this leads to him getting countered (see: the finishing sequence against Poirier), but he’s normally happy to trade head shots in order to cut someone’s legs away. In general he’s a horrifying attritional fighter, and I’m curious to see if he mixes in more body shots against someone like Vick. Head hunting seems like it’ll be difficult, at least early, but Vick presents a lot of real estate to attack.
David: It’s almost impressive how talented Gaethje is when you ignore his results. He owns a picturesque way of attacking down the middle, slicing inside with uppercuts, leg kicks — then using these attacks to transition into a collar tie for inside options. It’s one thing to have a grab bag at your disposal, but it’s another to time them for maximum shot selection. Gaethje does this with incredible efficiency. There’s speed and power to what he does, like some sort of accelerated attrition. The problem he runs into is that as he scores in proximity, so is his opponent. His defense is actually there, as you mentioned; he moves his upper body (though not his head, per se), pivots, backsteps, and resets. But because he’s always BIG RIGHT HAND BIG RIGHT HAND in his head, he’s always positionally vulnerable. MMA Nation had quite the stat to bear this out: he’s absorbed 492 significant strikes in his last three bouts, which is double the rate that comparable opponents — Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier — have taken in the same span.
Insight from past fights?
Phil: I was fairly heavily leaning towards Vick in this fight… until I watched his fight against Dariush. A determined pressure fighter, Dariush was able to push Vick into the fence and take away his kicks. Vick is an accurate puncher, but aside from his hands he doesn’t really have much defense, so when Dariush stayed on him he eventually got an opportunity to lace the Texan with a big overhand. Staying off the cage is a tough ask against Gaethje.
David: You said it, Latino Equilibrium-weight Christian Bale. As much as everyone criticizes Gaethje’s defense, it’s important to take into consideration one thing about Gaethje — Johnson, Alvarez, and Poirier are brilliant output strikers (have we forgotten how bad Johnson deaded Poirier?) — and one thing about Vick — his defense ain’t all that.
Even beyond the Dariush fight, I wasn’t a big fan of Vick’s approach against Francisco Trinaldo. Trinaldo would pressure forward, and Vick would just snap out a right body kick, and flick out his jab. The only reason Vick was successful with this approach is that a) Trinaldo wasn’t throwing enough, looking too hard for that one hitter quitter and b) Trinaldo never took advantage of the options he did have with takedowns, and body kicks. It wasn’t an impressive performance from Vick, who only found success when Trinaldo would back up, and even then, Vick’s offense wasn’t that notable. Gaethje — even in his Hulk Smash form — will make the right reads here. Vick won’t be able to circle out so easily, and his response to pressure is too one note to keep Gaethje from opening up a can through the middle.
X-Factors
David: I don’t believe in karma, but I do believe that the universe tends to unfold as it should. Loyalty to Lloyd will be punished at some point.
Phil: Just the amount of damage Gaethje has taken recently. He’s back in action pretty damn quickly, as well. At some point it adds up.
Prognostication
David: We’ll probably see Gaethje get clipped at some point. He has a tendency to predictably lower his head in response, and Vick has a tendency to sniff those responses out. But if Gaethje is clipped, I don’t think it’ll be because he got stupid. That said, I like Gaethje’s ability to attack the middle, and I like the sequence it potentially allows, with Vick against the fence, or throwing predictable counterstrikes in response. Justin Gaethje by TKO, round 3.
Phil: Gaethje seems, as always, certain to take damage wading in. Vick is an accurate puncher who throws in combination and rarely fights stupidly. However, he also puts himself into the fence and his defense has clearly defined limits. While him catching Gaethje with a big uppercut or step-knee is always a possibility, as is him just wearing Gaethje down with volume, I think Vick’s defensive proclivities allow Gaethje to start building up major damage on him by the cage. Justin Gaethje by TKO, round 3.