Junior dos Santos vs. Blagoy Ivanov headlines UFC Fight Night 133 this July 14, 2018 at the CenturyLink Arena in Boise, Idaho.
One sentence summary
David: The first man to beat Fedor makes his UFC debut the first man to beat Cain Velasquez.
Phil: [Editor’s note: Phil, you’re supposed to keep writing.]
Stats
Record: Junior dos Santos 18-5 | Blagoy Ivanov 16-1-1 NC
Odds: Junior dos Santos -175 | Blagoy Ivanov +155
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: It’s good to have JDS back and away from the clutches of USADA. Now that heavyweight is sort of exciting again, it’s nice to have one of its more exciting fighters back in the fold. We’ve been pretty cynical about JDS’ health in recent years. But I think he’s looked pretty spry in his last two fights, even with the TKO loss. On the surface, the UFC appears confident in his return to form. His opponent is Blagoy Ivanov, after all. I don’t think it’s super dangerous or anything, but it has the potential to be super ugly.
Phil: JDS reminds me a lot of Anthony Pettis at the moment. I think people get caught up in comeback stories (Pettis vs Miller and Chiesa, JDS vs Rothwell) or brutal losses (Stipe, Poirier) and think that they are reminiscent of a more significant trajectory. While it’s clear that JDS isn’t the physical force that he was when he was younger, I think a bigger downward trend is overstated- he loses to certain well-defined style matchups, and probably still beats others. The question is whether this is one of those matchups.
David: Blagoy is not a name you’d forget if you’re an MMA hipster. Not only because it sounds like he was named after a meat paste, but because at a time when Fedor was still considered a cyborg meme, only one man actually threatened to fracture the last emperor illusion. Sure, it was in a different sport, but let’s give Ivanov a little credit. Combat Sambo is basically just MMA with instep guards. Sort of. Nonetheless, Blagoy had already made his MMA debut before beating Fedor in Combat Sambo, so the ability has been there for awhile. Since then he’s racked win after win in smaller shows (picking up decent wins here and there), and now he’s made the big time. Is the 10 year old hype real?
Phil: Ivanov was part of a short and largely-forgotten era where Bellator decided that a big part of its new push would be into the Russian marketplace. This was when fighters like Khabib were only just filtering into the UFC, and Bellator went around getting guys like Frodo Khasbulaev, Ivanov and Volkov. Unfortunately for Coker’s Bellator, Visa issues and being very good at MMA did not make for dynamite ratings. They’ve been filtering back into the sport in various ways, and it’ll be interesting to see if Ivanov can go as far as Volkov has.
What’s at stake?
David: I can’t imagine the UFC doing jumping jacks at the thought of Blagoy versus the Cormier vs. Lesnar winner. It would be a complete reversal of the intended universe: from fun, freakshow title fight to slow, mechanical title defense.
Phil: I think this one is basically a “bullet in the chamber” type matchup. If JDS wins, he’s still a likable, well-known action fighter. Ivanov wins, and we have a new contender to keep stuff going while the whole Cormier-Brock thing plays out.
Where do they want it?
David: JDS will do what he always does. He’ll pump his left hand jab, to the head and to the body, threaten with a sweeping but sharp right hand, and vary his strike selection in brief intervals to maintain mostly effective distance management. In his prime, his speed and power could overcome his defensive deficiencies. Like a hockey defenseman who is short, and skilled instead of tall, and tough: defense can be more efficient when you’re forcing the other guy to defend. But in recent years, his punches have slowed, and movement he never really had to begin with has exposed his inability to reset, move his head, or anticipate. We may have been looking at small sample size rather than a potential pattern, but this is a tough fight to gauge where his body’s at.
Phil: When he first went on that dominant streak through the heavyweight division, JDS seemed almost unstoppable. The aforementioned triphammer jab to the head and body, mixed up with the left hook and the big, tolling right hand seemed like a guessing game that heavyweights just weren’t prepared to deal with. Then came the second and third Cain fights, where he was just mashed against the cage again and again, and it’s hard to feel that at least something wasn’t taken away from both men. Then he struggled against Stipe and got knocked out by Overeem, and it felt like suddenly there were an awful lot of holes in his game. Namely: poor defensive footwork, a tendency to throw nothing in the clinch, and a deadly tendency to circle away with his hands down and his chin up. None of those things have gone away, but he also remains an exceptionally gifted puncher, who can keep an incredible pace and is very hard to take down.
David: Blagoy treats MMA the same way he treated his Combat Sambo matches. He has a very patient southpaw stance, moving back, and looking to reset rather than explode into a takedown or haymaker. He’s stocky, but pretty nimble, and has underrated speed. Blagyo is constantly looking for a straight left counter. He has a counter fighter’s instincts, but his grappling background makes him an efficient dual-threat when he’s targeting punch and clinch entries. He’s a little like heavyweight Ilir Latifi (except smaller?). You simply can’t back him up effectively. He can finish opportunities on the ground with a fairly threatening submission game, and even though he doesn’t have C4 in his hands, he throws with enough speed and accuracy to command respect on the feet.
Phil: The Latifi comparison is a good one (and not just because they fought! For those who are interested, the outcome was an NC because the ring broke, which is all kinds of apropos). It may be recency bias, but Ivanov also reminds me a little of fighters like Raphael Assuncao: a natural counter fighter who relies on being a stocky, strong fireplug to ward off takedown threats while being heavy handed enough that his opponents tend to respect his power, while not quite being so powerful that they actually tend to get knocked out. If they press him hard, he can revert to the clinch and takedown threats. The issues are that he tends to back himself into poor positions on the fence even more willingly than Dos Santos does, and that he just doesn’t keep a terribly high pace.
Insight from past fights
David: Blagoy’s fight against Shawn Jordan is a good illustration of where he can beat JDS. Beyond the obvious height difference, Jordan got aggressive, but not overtly aggressive and Blag still found just the right timing in between. To paraphrase that stupid ass street fighter movie (the Chris Klein one, not the Van Damme film that I admit I kind of love): ‘this guy’s punches walk through the raindrops.’ JDS can try to fight a midrange game, but I think it’s more dangerous than it looks if he can’t pressure Blagoy or cut him up with kicks from a distance.
Phil: Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun Li does indeed seem to be a film which ended almost everyone’s career who was involved. To continue the analogy, the original Street Fighter II, before Vega was played by a Black Eyed Peas member, his stage was not one where the fence was your friend. This is true of this fight, too. Ivanov got stuck on the fence for long stretches in that Jordan fight, and it’s been a common factor in almost all of Dos Santos’ losses.
X-Factors
David: Is Brendan Schaub spreading rumors about one of these guys too?
Phil: Urgh. I really did not need to have any confirmation that there is someone out there (whoever it may be) that consented to having sex with both Brendan Schaub and Dana White. It’s just not a mental image I needed.
Prognostication
David: Normally, an MMA debutant who earned their name off beating Fedor in a different sport a full decade ago potentially vying for a UFC title shot would simply be a punchline, but at heavyweight, nothing’s sacred. I honestly don’t like their clash of styles. JDS builds his attack around templates rather than tactics. He likes creating offense from the periphery, which is what Blagoy calls his home. Still, I can’t imagine JDS has slowed down enough to get caught. Junior dos Santos by Decision.
Phil: This just doesn’t seem like a style matchup that should trouble JDS at all. A footslow, low-pace counterstriker who puts himself into the fence? I see no reason why Dos Santos can’t just establish the mid range and then run that jab / body jab / left hook / overhand series which dominated vast swathes of the heavyweight division. Ivanov isn’t a big enough wrestler to be able to crack Dos Santos’ superlative takedown defense with regularity, and other than that I think he just gets marked up and worn down. Junior Dos Santos by unanimous decision.