Carlos Condit vs. Alex Oliveira co-headlines UFC on FOX 29 this April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.
One sentence summary
David: Condit takes his long walk, starting with a Vaqueiro.
Phil: We finally get to see the Natural Born Killer against the Cowboy… oh.
Stats
Record: Carlos Condit 30-11 | Alex Oliveira 18-4-1 Draw 1 NC
Odds: Carlos Condit +185 | Alex Oliveira -200
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: It’s weird to talk about Condit in the same breath as most ham and eggers looking to retain former glory, but with all due and legitimate respect to Condit—that’s a little like how it feels; he’s on a three fight skid that’s missed the usual gangly flare. This is par for the course for most action fighters, sadly. However, Condit’s deterioration never seemed overt, so maybe we were just missing the subtle cues. There won’t be anything subtle about what a loss to Oliveira will mean to Condit’s career—this is a fighter would have feasted on earlier in his UFC career—but it’s a good test given where Condit is at.
Phil: Carlos Condit is one of the most beloved action fighters in the UFC. Almost all but the most hardcore Diaz fans have forgiven him his much-maligned win over Nick (and honestly, that fight is still pretty good by mortal standards). He gave GSP the scare of his post-Serra career when he fought for the belt. His fight with Robbie Lawler? Maybe he didn’t really deserve it on merit at the time, but it gives you a sense for how widely loved he was that no-one really seemed to care. It didn’t hurt that NBK and Lawler then went on to author one of the best fights and perhaps the best single round in MMA history. Since then, though, his recent fights have been… atypical. They’re not the sad blowout beatings that many feared that he’d end his career on, but they’re also just… not Condit.
David: Oliveria has done a great job of being Brazilian Cerrone, and playing the part with the type of gusto Cerrone himself would approve of. Still, his game needs polish. His fight with Yancy was a good example of what happens when two fighters try to kill each other before the coin flips and lands heads. It wasn’t a great display of talent, but when talent doesn’t work hard enough, hard work can be a fist through the chest. Oliveira embodies this sadistic analogy I’ve only manufactured because I’m low on sleep, but you get what I’m saying.
Phil: Speaking of action fighters, some might find it a little disrespectful that Alex Oliveira has the same nickname as Condit’s stablemate, Cerrone. But damned if Brazilian Cowboy isn’t doing his best to live up to the monicker. Short notice fights, check. Crazy barnburners, check. Doing it all over again, sure. He doesn’t fight anything like his Colorado counterpart, but the essential spirit is there. That loss to Yancy Medeiros wasn’t anyone’s idea of a technical masterpiece, but there was genuinely frightening amounts of violence being dished out on both ends.
What’s at stake?
David: Precious little. If Condit loses, he’s done, and that sucks. If he wins, it’s just part of his retirement tour.
Phil: Not much. Most people at the top of the division have now been booked, so title contention is locked up for a while (especially with the bizarre Covington-RDA interim belt in the mix). It’s basically just a referendum on whether Condit is still himself.
Where do they want it?
David: Part of Condit’s latest iteration started with the Nick Diaz fight (where Condit fans turned on him because not enough loud noises and just bleed); he knew from the outset and during camp that his style wasn’t gonna blend as well in Diaz’ storm so he took a different version of himself and packaged his active arsenal with something of a counterstriker’s mindset. The guy that blitzed, crushed, but also got tossed on his head against Hiromitsu Miura this is not—and that’s fine. Neither his chin, nor his body will hold up on a long enough timeline so he’s adapted accordingly. He’s still pretty incredible as is. He has a unique ability to chain offense together that pressures instead of links; like an offense that stutters because it’s constantly in motion, but doesn’t always establish a rhythm. From question mark kicks to scapula strikes, he still has a taste for blood (often his own), which is what makes him must-watch.
Phil: Once a blood’n’guts brawler, Condit has increasingly become an outside fighter in recent years. While he’ll never have precision footwork, he’s exceptionally mobile, and endlessly diverse. That slightly hunched, strange stance is the launching pad for a collection of arcing shots that he seemingly assembles into combinations on the fly. Left hook, right hand, left leg kick, right body shot. He still carries the skills he learned from the Diaz fight, basically, and can occasionally bring that basic style archetype back as well, by tapping away with the leg kick and looking for the counter. His issues are well-known: he’s defensively lackluster on the feet and has terrible takedown defense. He’s always ameliorated these issues by being a savage, relentless sweeper and scrambler, and by having a chin made of pure adamantium. If either of these traits are failing him… he’s in bad trouble. He’s a very intelligent fighter, but I struggle to see a happy career for a late career, “crafty veteran” iteration of Condit.
David: It’s fitting that Oliveira is fighting Condit; Condit seems like the kind of fighters Oliveira fashioned himself after. Like Condit, Cowboy knows how to switch things up within his storm of fist swords. His punches are a little more direct—almost like he needs the right motor oil to ensure his gut engine bolsters each punch into a five knuckle meat bruiser. His combinations are not crisp, but they flow, and he varies his attack to the head and body with an eye for timely takedowns.
Phil: Cowboy Oliveira is a natural fighter. That is the thing that jumps out at me the most when I see him. He just “gets” fighting. He doesn’t appear to be rigorously schooled, but he has an instinctive knack for backstepping counters and naturally plays with rhythm. He got outgrappled by Gilbert Burns, but showed freakish natural strength which has since been parlayed into a crude but effective bodylock takedown, pound and pass ground game. He also knows when to strike with opponents (LaFlare) and when to grapple with them (Means). Changing up an approach like that is something which seems obvious to observers, but something which is very difficult for most to actually implement. His most impressive recent improvement is his ability to deliver unpleasant-looking snap kicks to the gut to set up his hands
Insight from Past Fights
David: The Magny fight saw the version of Condit that could potentially lose this fight. Because you find out so much about a fighter when they’re blood and guts (like Condit), adaptation isn’t always amelioration. Condit has adapted well to keep himself upright, and relevant. But in a vacuum, Oliveira is kind of fighter who grows more dangerous the safer you approach him. And Condit won’t be able to turn on the grappling switch so easily against a fighter who is craftier than he looks. If Condit wants safe, he needs that one-or-two minute outburst where he’s just slaying s— like he was drawn in a Boris Vallejo painting.
Phil: The Medeiros fight for Oliveira is an interesting one, because he essentially exhausted himself beating the living s— out of Medeiros. In many ways he looked dramatically improved offensively, with the aforementioned snap kicks finding a home again and again. Given that he’s never really had cardio issues, the questions are then: does he take a bit more of a patient approach here, or if he doesn’t… can Condit actually survive the way that Medeiros did?
X-Factors
David: Really, and absolutely nothing. Especially now that they don’t have to worry about a dolly smashing through their bus.
Phil: Brazilian Cowboy is on short notice, but that doesn’t seem like it’ll be too much of an issue. That’s how Cowboys roll, after all.
Prognostication
David: I honestly think Condit needs to “return to form”, and by that I just mean smash face the way he used to. It’s not the kind of form he’ll need moving forward against hard hitters, but for a fighter like Oliveira who can be gotten (especially to the body; seems like the ‘cowboy’ moniker is a curse to the torso), it’d be wise. And honestly, this is that cheesy action movie moment where the trigger heavy spy is told by his superior that “you know you want to get back into the game!” and Condit misses being a fan favorite rock ‘em sock ‘em robot. Carlos Condit by TKO, round 3.
Phil: I’m just not sure about Condit at the moment. He looked dismal against Magny (even though I expected him to lose), just unable to really storm back and take the fight back in the ways that he used to. Oliveira has several issues which I think could trouble him: despite moving up, he’s actually a slightly longer and almost certainly physically stronger. I think his bodylock takedown game may give Condit issue. In general, though, it’s just that nagging feeling that the Natural Born Killer isn’t really there any more. Alex Oliveira by TKO, round 3.