The win probabilities for UFC 223’s nine – wait, make that five – qualifying matchups are in. Nine fights would’ve been the most fights with good data in a long time, until Conor McGregor felt the need to donate some of his Mayweather money to others less fortunate in the fight community. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind Namajunas-Jedrzejczyk and two other hypothetical fights we can only dream about now, see Tuesday’s piece.
Khabib Nurmagomedov (68.7%) over Al Iaquinta (31.3%)
Rose Namajunas (68.6%) over Joanna Jedrzejczyk (31.4%)
Felice Herrig (59.8%) over Karolina Kowalkiewicz (40.2%)
Ashlee Evans-Smith (73.5%) over Bec Rawlings (26.5%)
Evan Dunham (70.2%) over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (29.8%)
Current Bankroll: $9,991.30
The model has $199.83 on Herrig at +155 (as of this writing) which makes me a little nervous but I do what it says and hope/expect things to work out over time. Smaller edges exist for two others with $49.96 on Namajunas at -115 and Dunham at -120.
After a turbulent week, enjoy the still glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.
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