Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov headlines UFC London this March 17, 2018 at the The O2 Arena in London, England.
One sentence summary
David: Sudden Dearth.
Phil: Cor bloimey guv’na it’s that most British of main events, with Fabricio “Get Ye Up, Nag” Werdum and Alexander “Raggo” Volkov
Stats
Record: Fabricio Werdum 23-7-1 | Draw Alexander Volkov 29-6
Odds: Fabricio Werdum -175 | Alexander Volkov +155
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: For a former heavyweight champion, Werdum has been extremely active on his road to redemption (which, figuratively, won’t happen as long as he’s still bro’ing out with Kadyrov). Some of it’s self-imposed; he lost to Alistair Overeem. Some of it’s bad luck; having to face off against late replacement Walt Harris. Needless to say, Werdum’s career has been a boomerang for good versus bad fortune. Ho ho. This fight feels like the one we were supposed to get when Werdum was scheduled to fight Derrick Lewis. As in, it’s a proper test not only for where Werdum’s head is at, but for where a prospect is at.
Phil: Sometimes it feels like the top of heavyweight are all just joining hands to form this interconnected network which refuses to sink down into the past. Under the unstated rules, t’s OK for Werdum to lose to Overeem, he’s old. But fighters like Walt Harris, or Junior Albini, or Marcin Tybura just get relentlessly turned away. Werdum is one of the prime examples of someone who is holding onto his spot and absolutely refuses to give it up to anyone.
David: Volkov is still a modest mystery to me. In Bellator, he reminded of Stipe Miocic when he lost to Stefan Struve; good mechanics, and a solid raw foundation, but maybe too “blue collary” to be elite. Then Miocic went and did great things, and so my impressions of Volkov are a little different. Beating Nelson—despite the timeframe—was obviously a solid country feather in the Soviet cap. So far we’re still learning about what he’s capable of. And this is good a fight to challenge just that.
Phil: I think it was the Heavy Hands guys who described Volkov as “What people thought Struve could be,” and that makes sense to me. Also, he just went exactly into that spot where Ruslan Magomedov was. Incredibly tall, somewhat bland Russian range striker? No-one remembers him? I like to think Magomedov looks at Volkov’s incredible surge to prominence (I mean, relatively. Fight Pass main event!) and can only feel a deep and bitter rage. Volkov is the Eisenberg to his Cera, the Lester to his Bart.
What’s at stake?
David: Quite a bit. If Werdum loses, he’ll have to rely on some last minute injury to a real contender AND hope Cain Velasquez’ bone spurs aren’t fully healed. As long Cain is still connected to Joe Grasso, the latter is much more likely than the former.
Phil: Werdum probably gets the next shot at the Cormier-Miocic winner… I think. Maybe? I mean, it’s still more profitable to winch up the shattered remnants of Cain and drop him in to nominally avenge Cormier should his teammate lose. Cain is still a top 4 heavyweight, despite not owning wins over anyone in the current top 15, and being so physically compromised that the NSAC wouldn’t license him. Those people were fine with Big Nog fighting as a half-blind chunk of sentient leather.
Where do they want it?
David: Werdum’s style still kind of eludes me. Even after all these years. I think because his skills and rhythm never quite align symmetrically (if that makes any sense). He’s not all that interested in getting the fight to the ground where his top shelf jiu jitsu skills can simply roll over anyone in his path, and to his credit, that urgency isn’t always paramount. Still, he has a punishing style just through sheer force of will. His punches land with decent pop, but it’s his ability to dictate range in obvious and sneaky ways with his kick traffic that makes all the difference in how effective a heavyweight he is.
Phil: Werdum is someone predicated almost entirely on aggression, occupying approximately the same spectrum as fighters like Brunson or RDA, but better than one, and worse than the other. The punches come into the clinch, and the clinch comes into the takedowns. I actually think one of the subtle improvements he’s made over the years is knowing when said takedowns are going to work: he took no time in getting Walt Harris down, but also didn’t waste energy on shooting repeatedly on Overeem when he fought him the third time, like he did back in Strikeforce. His chin and explosiveness might have declined a little with age, but like so many of the fighters at the top of heavyweight he’s making up the difference with cunning.
David: Despite Volkov’s size, he makes limited use of it—perhaps explaining why his fight with Struve might have been more difficult than it should have been. However, limited does not mean ineffective. Even with a tight, compact jab, thundering knees in close, and not much else to report, he’s good at finding ways to maintain distance, execute, and successfully pressure and avoid pressure.
Phil: Volkov is a case study in minimalism. Like you said, there’s very little to his game. He controls space with the jab liberally, and his main damage dealers are a head kick and knees in the clinch. Like Werdum (and like Werdum’s last opponent) he does not work well moving backwards, which means that the fight has a good chance of being decided by whoever can be more effectively aggressive. In particular, his wrestling defense is relatively average – it has definitely improved from his days being pounded out by Vitaly Minakov, but he struggles to choose between attacking the Thai clinch or digging for underhooks, often getting stuck in the middle ground between effective defense and offense.
Insight from Past Fights
David: Werdum tends to have some trouble with more technical strikers. He can beat powerful strikers, fast strikers, and slow strikers, but if they stick to a pace and combine that pace with technique, he can struggle. His defense is still an issue, which partially explains it. The other factor is his sort-of lack of urgency; basically, Werdum is great at pressuring with a variety of attacks, but that variety disappears into overexuberence when the pressure shoe’s on the other foot. The point here is that Volkov’s striking could end up being doubly effective if Werdum begins to get frustrated by being poked, and prodded rather than threatened and hurt.
Phil: As mentioned, some of the similarities between Tybura and Werdum are notable. The general lack of power in their hands, a movement-heavy style, and fairly impressive physical toughness. Volkov is more likely to be able to win a technical fencing match with Werdum on the feet, but he’s also the weaker wrestler, and it’s worth noting that Werdum was successful in getting Tybura to the mat. It’s also notable that Tybura’s only real path to victory was kicking Werdum upside the head, and he managed to pull it off. Even if it didn’t knock the Brazilian out, it’s worth noting that a defensive wizard, Werdum is not.
X-Factors
David: I’ve been out of the news loop ever since the Jon Jones commission testimony. As long as that can’t be topped for the time being, I’ll just sit here and enjoy the reruns.
Phil: Aside from either man getting distracted by the despair of how they’ll never match up to the simulated power of EA Dana, there isn’t much.
Prognostication
David: Volkov is a tempting pick (though not at those odds), but I can’t shake his lack of power or dynamic qualities that typically characterize opponents Werdum has struggled with. I expect Volkov to be a tough test (closer to Werdum’s fight with Tybura than his fight with Arlovski) insofar as he won’t be discarded quickly, and Werdum will have cut through his defenses—fairly diligently no less. Fabricio Werdum by Decision.
Phil: Volkov has had struggles in the clinch, on the ground, and being forced backwards. He lacks power in his hands and has a relatively limited path to victory. While I could see him winning a fencing match with Werdum, I think Werdum understands that he has to push Volkov into the fence and then cycle knees and takedowns. Volkov is tough and tireless, so it’s possible that he survives like Tybura did, but unless he lands the headkick or the counter right hand of his life, it seems like a poor style matchup. Fabricio Werdum by submission, round 3.