Derrick Lewis vs. Marcin Tybura co-headlines UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros this February 18, 2018 at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas.
One sentence summary
David: Cheddar Bob battles Sol George for this heavyweight 8 Mile lookalike contest.
Phil: An oversized hobbit takes on The Black Beast in a fight which probably looks closer to early career than late career Peter Jackson.
Stats:
Record: Derrick Lewis 18-5 (1 NC) | Marcin Tybura 16-3
Odds: Derrick Lewis +125 | Marcin Tybura -145
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: I think Lewis is more or less hitting peak Lewis. This is simultaneously good—he’s still a dangerous fighter with a sense of strategy—and bad—he’s a dangerous fighter whose strategy opponents can readily predict. This fight will tell us a lot about whether Lewis is learning enough new tricks to be more than an entertaining gatekeeper.
Phil: Derrick Lewis is the massive, devastating and raw heavyweight puncher who has been watching Francis Ngannou steal his hype train. Unlike Ngannou, he had a lot more growing pains when he came to the UFC: despite some genuinely gruesome regional KOs, he got finished by Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione. A lesson, I think. Give new guys grapplers as tests, not flawed strikers with dynamite in their fists. Still, since then he’s had a somewhat uneven but generally entertaining run to the upper end of the division, which culminated in a deflating KO loss to Mark Hunt.
David: Tybura would be a run of the mill heavyweight ham and egger if he didn’t have a few raw skills that allowed him to be almost unpredictable at times (like that head kick). As is, he’s like most heavyweights: he’s a big guy who will win more than he loses because he’s just a smidge more agile than his opponents.
Phil: OK, scratch the lesson about giving people grapplers. Marcin Tybura arrived in the UFC with a small modicum of hype, and then was ground down in a typically Timothy Johnson way by Timothy Johnson. He then righted the ship with some knockout wins over Pesta and Henrique, and then predictably got dominated by Werdum. He has a bit of that Stipe issue, in that he’s a decent fighter with almost no freak appeal. He has a quick and dangerous head kick! Sometimes it works!
Stakes:
Phil: These are two guys which had their flaws pretty definitively exposed last time out. Lewis can angle for a big-ticket fight with Ngannou or similar, but I’m not sure where Tybura goes with a win. He’s just not very interesting.
David: I guess the stakes are high for Lewis assuming he can win big. If not, the loss would be huge without being a big win for Tybura—who I can’t imagine the UFC trying to push into title contention.
Where do they want it?
David: We were talking about Matt Mitrione the other day, so talking about Lewis on the same weekend feels fitting. Lewis is fascinating in the way he’s low-key adaptable. I don’t know if it’s a function of him actively looking to get better defensively or just being economic but so far he’s found a way to make good use of kicks, strongman punches, and random takedowns every now and then.
Phil: Where does Derrick Lewis want the fight indeed. A question which I’m not sure Lewis himself could answer. Is he a counter puncher, or a kicker, or a pressure fighter or… what? He’s made some strides in not leaving himself massively out of position, and in getting better at recovering from grounded position, and most usefully in his cardio (which is by now actually pretty good, if just because anyone who tires him out with grappling inevitably tires himself out at about the same rate due to the strength discrepancy). Other than that he seems to mostly just be there, being big, with some snappy kicks and a ton of power. Swangin’ and bangin’ is not really a good strategic descriptor.
David: Tybura would be an effective fighter at any weight. He has a unique approach, blending a stream of kick traffic and seamless takedown attempts into a unique whole. He’s more technically interesting than technically proficient. But that doesn’t make him not proficient—he’s just not as violent as he could or might be in another possible world. His boxing, for example, leaves a bit to be desired. If anything, his punches looked better when he’s dishing out some classic ground and pound. It’s just a matter of comfort; Tybura prefers to set up takedowns and soften the opponent up with kicks rather than punches, and luckily for him he’s actively good at one of those.
Phil: Tybura is the secondary kick-grappler archetype. While they generally tend to be tall, and range from the lean to the willowy, you occasionally get the Dennis Siver / Drew Dober. A fire hydrant who is difficult to take down, difficult to hurt, and occasionally just lashes out with a weird TKD-type front leg head kick out of nowhere. This is basically Tybura. He’s a fairly unimpressive boxer, but he has a solid trip takedown arsenal and a reasonably effective (if not tremendously damaging) top game. Most importantly, he is absolutely incredibly tough. Werdum put it on him for the better part of five rounds, and he still had enough in the tank left to have Vai Cavalo on wobbly legs in the fifth.
Insight from past fights
Phil: Derrick Lewis is a good kicker. He has a knack for slipping his shin under the ribs, and has surprising agility and leg dexterity for such a behemoth. Derrick Lewis did not deal well with someone else kicking him at all when he fought Travis Browne. Mostly he just got beaten up until Browne gifted him the clinch.
David: Yep. Tybura’s kicks aren’t quite as violent, but he can potentially achieve something similar in a roundabout way—soften Lewis up at range.
X-Factors
Phil: Lewis has a history of both back problems and of inconsistent motivation to fight. It’s an open question how much he’s going to be there for this fight. Is he coming back to make a run at the title, or is he just looking to make some money and because he can’t quite let the competitive bug go?
David: Fighting is not the sport to be half-in. Granted, once Lewis is inside the cage, I don’t think it’ll make a difference. But if it makes a difference in preparation for the fight, Tybura is exactly the kind of fighter that requires some level of scouting.
Prognostication
Phil: Lewis is far more athletic, bigger and stronger. His game also doesn’t make any sense at all. Conversely, Tybura’s fundamental style isn’t great. He’s defensively all over the shop, and he lacks dynamic offense anywhere apart from his head kick. But, he can kick from range, and convert caught kicks coming back at him into takedowns. He’s also infinitely tougher. That should be enough to wear down and discourage Lewis until Tybura can kick him. Marcin Tybura by TKO, round 3.
David: I could see Lewis just blasting Tybura (no matter how tough) out of there in the first round with a spinning back elbow, or something ridiculous. But the most likely scenario is Tybura weaving through traffic with a more efficient pattern of offense, prompting Lewis to go boo-boo. Marcin Tybura by Decision.