UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou staff picks and predictions

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC 220, and the majority of us are picking Francis Ngannou to unseat Stipe Miocic and become the new heavyweight champion. Phil Mackenzie and Zane Simon are holding firm on going with Miocic to become the first heavyweight in UFC history to make three straight title defenses. As for the co-main event, only Eddie Mercado and myself are picking Volkan Oezdemir to beat Daniel Cormier, but please note the reason why I’m going with Oezdemir when you actually read our predictions.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou

Anton Tabuena: Miocic is vastly more experienced and has shown to have a much more well rounded MMA game so far. Ngannou on the other hand, is bigger, much more athletic, and has insane power — which could really be a death sentence for someone with defensive lapses in Miocic. That’s pretty much how far we can go with trying to predict this. Ngannou shows improvements on each bout, but there’s just far too many unanswered questions about his overall MMA game at this point. This is also heavyweight, where one shot will surely turn the tide or just flat out end the contest. I guess the “safer” pick is the known commodity in Miocic, but I have a feeling we’ll see a new champion crowned this weekend. Francis Ngannou by brutal KO.

Mookie Alexander: It’s entirely possible Miocic knocks Ngannou out, dominates him on the ground, and shows that Ngannou still has plenty to learn about a sport he’s still relatively inexperienced in. This is also the heavyweight division, where not a single fighter has managed three consecutive title defenses, and where someone like Ngannou can make all question marks about his overall MMA game moot by shutting off the other dude’s brain. For as talented as Miocic is offensively, he’s conclusively not very good defensively, and I have to think he’s going to get tagged hard at least once, and he won’t be able to recover. I selfishly wish for this to be a Joshua-Klitschko type of war, except unlike Joshua-Klitschko, this turns into the next great heavyweight rivalry in UFC history. Francis Ngannou by KO, round 2.

Eddie Mercado: Ngannou is the type of athlete that the UFC could recruit if they paid their fighters a salary comparable to that of the NFL, NBA, or MLB. I want to see the biggest, strongest, and most technical athletes compete in hand to hand combat to see who really is the baddest man on the planet. This is why I’m here. Unfortunately, the low paying salaries keeps the true heavyweight alphas in team sports, while MMA gets the fallout, but Ngannou is the closest thing we have right now so I guess I’ll take what I can get. Francis Ngannou by KO in round 1 or 2.

Zane Simon: The big thing for me here is honestly that there just are too many questions surrounding Ngannou. And the answer, while obvious, seems almost too simplistic. Ngannou is bigger and faster and hits harder. But is that really all there is to it? Is the fact that Miocic is a more deft offensive boxer with a more educated jab meaningless? Is the fact that Miocic is the better wrestler, with the more proven ability to fight through adversity meaningless? Maybe. I’m betting, this time, that it isn’t. That Ngannou’s takedown defense isn’t quite strong enough, that his strikes, while murderous, aren’t quite educated enough, and that his impressive physique isn’t quite conditioned enough. But he could just KO Stipe in a minute and make all of that moot. Stipe Miocic by TKO, round 4.

Fraser Coffeen: I’m not sure I agree with Zane about Miocic’s ability to push through adversity. I thought that was what cost him in the JDS fight, and granted, he’s evolved since then, but… That said, I’m also not sure that’s relevant here, as I don’t have supreme faith in Miocic’s chin, and if Ngannou really connects, this is over. So this is a game of Miocic trying to stop that bomb. And he certainly can by using takedowns and making it kind of like the Hunt fight. Ngannou’s best bet is early – once it goes deep, it favors the champ. But I don’t think he can make it go deep. Francis Ngannou, KO, R1

Nick Baldwin: I don’t think this will come down to who’s better technically, or who’s the better wrestler (that’s obviously Miocic), or who can fight the best in deep waters. I don’t expect Miocic vs. Ngannou to last long; for me, it comes down to who lands a huge shot first. Ngannou is bigger and stronger than Miocic, arguably quicker, and might have a better chin. So … Francis Ngannou via Knockout, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: Stipe’s going to have to survive a lot if he hopes to wear out Francis and get the win here. I don’t think he’ll be able to bully him or take him down, and Ngannou’s ability to draw opponents in for combination counters is lethal. Miocic is going to have to use his jab to work clinches and pin Ngannou against the cage as his best bet, and good luck with that. If a credentialed wrestler like Curtis Blaydes couldn’t control or take down Ngannou, Stipe won’t be able to. Miocic will dream Cameroonian dreams set to a Manu Dibango soundtrack. Francis Ngannou by knockout fueled by the hopes of immigrants everywhere, round 1.

Staff picking Miocic: Phil, Zane
Staff picking Ngannou: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Fraser, Victor, Tim, Stephie, Anton

Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir

Anton Tabuena: This fight has me thinking upset the entire time since it was booked. Oezdemir can certainly pull it off, but predicting that to happen isn’t really a logical pick at this point, with Cormier showing to be the much more complete and better MMA fighter so far. Daniel Cormier by Submission.

Mookie Alexander: From the UFC 214 picks for Oezdemir vs. Jimi Manuwa, and I quote, “If Oezdemir wins and gets himself a title shot, I will pick Oezdemir to beat either Cormier or Jones, no matter how impractical it may be. Write that down.” Well, I’m a man of my word, so let’s go for the chaos. Volkan Oezdemir by KO, round 2.

Eddie Mercado: I have a buddy named Andy Reed that I’ve known since the 3rd grade, and for whatever reason, this Martha Focker has an uncanny ability to predict sporting event outcomes really far in advance. This isn’t an all the time thing either. It’s every so often, random, but this dude volunteering random predictions that come true is unignorable. In the winter of 2005, this cat predicted the Chicago Bears going to, not winning, the 2006 Super Bowl, and he doesn’t even watch football like that. Well, Andy had another premonition about Volkan Oezdemir winning the title right after V.O. won a split decision over OSP. Of course, I laughed at and ignored my friend and shluffed off his prediction, but Oezdemir kept on overproducing, and is now competing for the belt. If not for my buddy, I would be picking DC all day, but I gotta dismiss logic this time and go with my strangely mystic brother from another mother, and take Volkan Oezdemir by TKO in round 1.

Zane Simon: Oezdemir enters this fight with the unfortunate fact that where he’s best, his opponent is better. ‘No Time’ isn’t a great range striker (although he’s got some decent kicks) and he’s not a great counter puncher. The meat of his game happens in tight, in the clinch, where he stays active and looks for short, power shots where his opponents are looking to rest and reset. But Cormier is never looking to rest or reset in the clinch. Against all but Jon Jones, Cormier owns the clinch, and he did pretty okay against Jones there too. Daniel Cormier by TKO, round 3.

Fraser Coffeen: We’ve already seen what happens when Cormier faces a heavy-handed Henri Hooft trainee with a puncher’s chance and moderately dubious cardio. Twice. Daniel Cormier, TKO, R3

Nick Baldwin: My biggest concern here is that 38-year-old Daniel Cormier might just be done. A first TKO/KO loss can be devastating to one’s career, especially at the tail end. Volkan Oezdemir only wins this fight if Cormier has declined drastically since the second Jon Jones loss/no contest. If Cormier hasn’t, though, he wins this fight all day. Oezdemir has a puncher’s chance. That puncher’s chance might be increased because Cormier’s chin might be no more, but I can’t pull the trigger on “No Time.” Oezdemir will have success on the feet early, but by no means does he have a noticeable advantage in the striking department. Cormier will work takedowns and take him into deep waters. Daniel Cormier via unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Volkan is a faster and more dynamic athlete and striker, but Cormier’s already taken what Rumble dishes out. There’s nothing that Oezdemir does that is alien to Cormier and his team, and I doubt Volkan’s going to shuck off takedowns for the entirety of the fight. Cormier’s going to look for the opening to clinch and work from there, then grind to the absolute chagrin of anyone expecting a firefight on the feet. Daniel Cormier by submission.

Staff picking Cormier: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Phil, Zane, Fraser, Victor, Tim, Stephie, Anton
Staff picking Oezdemir: Eddie, Mookie

Shane Burgos vs. Calvin Kattar

Mookie Alexander: Two talented strikers who are destined to engage in fireworks. I think Burgos is the better athlete who has some sharp boxing skills, and his commitment to attacking the body against Godofredo Pepey was a thing of beauty. Shane Burgos by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: What a great fight, and easily one of my favourite of the weekend. I do caution that it may be a bit less exciting than people expect, particularly early, as Kattar may be a bit too canny to walk into some of Burgos’ aggressive counter triggers as Pepey did. That being said, I do still favour Burgos. A bit more accurate, a good deal more powerful, and once he gets into his second gear he’s also a more effective attritive fighter who rips a mean body shot and inside leg kick. Shane Burgos by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: This whole fight, for me, hinges on who establishes pressure early. Both men like to walk forward, both men work at their best when their opponent is moving backward. But Kattar, while high output, tough, and powerful enough, is a bit more of a rote offensive striker, who delivers solid, if basic combinations in large amounts. Burgos, does an even better job filling space with strikes, but is the more fluid, less predictable striker, and is much better at working a pressure game to open up hard counters. That unpredictability will likely be the key, as Kattar will land his own shots, but eat more of them moving in on straight lines to find Burgos, or backing up and getting pushed into foreseeable responses. Shane Burgos by decision.

Nick Baldwin: I like Shane Burgos’ dynamic striking to get him the win here. Both he and Calvin Kattar are talented on the feet — and getting better — but I feel like Burgos has the more potential. He is super fun to watch, and is a very good pressure fighter. I expect him to stalk Kattar down in a relatively competitive fight, but Burgos will be ahead for most of the fight. My only concern is that Burgos sometimes gets a bit wild, and Kattar seems like he’d be a good fighter to be able to counter Burgos and maybe catch him. Nonetheless, Shane Burgos by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Burgos: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Phil, Zane, Fraser, Mookie, Victor, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Kattar: Stephie

Francimar Barroso vs. Gian Villante

Mookie Alexander: Main card? You gotta be kidding me. Francimar Barroso by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: While I’m the first one to remind people that the bout order hierarchy isn’t what it used to be, it’s a goddamn crime that this fight got put on the main card and the UFC expects me to shell out money for it. Neither guy is a consistent action fighter, and neither guy puts on consistently high-level performances. Remember that Embedded episode where Rockhold clowned on Villante for walking funny and being a lumbering oaf? It was kind of funny until you realized how accurate it was. Villante was a standout athlete in high school and college in wrestling and football, so he has explosive athleticism. The problem is that it doesn’t translate to his striking, his footwork is stilted, he eats too many shots and his wrestling gets sloppy. On paper, he should absolutely be a favorite here, but as unreliable as his performances are, it’s hard to read what improvements he’s made from fight to fight, if any (at least recently).And his opponent? Barroso gets by on output and pressing forward, but doesn’t do anything exceptionally well that can offer a major threat here other than sniping with good jabs down the middle and finishing Villante with followup strikes. He’s far from the finisher he was outside of the UFC, but remains afloat because 205 is a comically disparate division outside of the top 5. I can’t tell who I trust the least in this trash fire, and the UFC’s got its hand in my pocket for the pleasure of witnessing the audaciousness of sweaty meh. What the hell ever. Francimar Barroso by meaningless decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Good lord. On paper maybe this isn’t the worst fight to get booked on a PPV main card in the modern UFC. I mean, Jared Rosholt. But for sheer silly awfulness, it does stand out more than almost anything else I can remember. So, the breakdown: Francimar Barroso is a rectangular cuboid with a giant goddamn head who clinches a lot. Villante is a bro-bot, with athleticism and some technique inexorably tied to a total inability to adapt to… to anything. Gian Villante by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Is Barroso too limited to adapt to the infinitely solvable Gian Villante? Maybe… quite possibly. But my guess is that he’s too tough to get put away early and Villante self destructs down the stretch. Francimar Barroso by decision.

Nick Baldwin: Lol. I’ll be watching Douglas Lima vs. Rory MacDonald during this fight (hopefully). I’ve never picked Francimar Barroso to win a fight, but there’s a first for everything, right? Francimar Barroso via unanimous decision.

Staff picking Barroso: Victor, Nick, Zane, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Villante: Bissell, Dayne, Phil, Eddie, Tim, Anton

Thomas Almeida vs. Rob Font

Mookie Alexander: For all of my concerns about Almeida being the world’s worst first-round fighter, he actually performed very well in his loss to Jimmie Rivera. If there’s such a thing as an encouraging defeat, that was a great example. I’m very much a Font fan, and his striking can absolutely trouble Almeida and get the stoppage. My problem with Font, as was articulated by Zane in the Vivisection, is he doesn’t appear to react well to getting hurt. Thomas Almeida hurts a lot of people, and if Almeida has Font hurt, this is a done deal. I think the Brazilian wins a thriller in enemy territory. Thomas Almeida by TKO, round 3.

Phil Mackenzie: This fight is not only utterly awesome but rather difficult to figure out. Almeida is hittable in a way which intuitively matches up particularly poorly with Font’s style: a rangy, powerful puncher who slides a long jab and lines up the right hand, it instinctively seems like Almeida’s high guard is going to get pierced early and often. Conversely, though, Font has had some issues with pure offense and varied pressure, and once people get inside his reach he falls apart slightly. That’s Almeida. I think on balance Font is just too offensively nasty to start slow against, and his instinct of shooting for takedowns when hurt won’t get him into the same trouble it did against Munhoz. Rob Font by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: Font is almost certainly going to come out hard and have success early against Almeida, who conversely always comes out slow and gets hurt early. But, I while Font’s chin is likely better, I think his belief in his chin is worse. When he starts getting hurt, he starts reacting poorly, starts making bad decisions, and starts getting hurt even more. Conversely, when Almeida gets hurt, he tends to bounce right back, and tighten up his defense and start fighting smarter. Almeida is too accurate and consistent not to land on Font. And when he does, I don’t think Font will turn it around. Thomas Almeida by KO, Round 3.

Nick Baldwin: Man, I can’t wait for this fight. Rob Font will do good things on the feet early on, but once Thomas Almeida warms up and gets comfortable, I suspect he’ll start demolishing Font on the feet. Font might just be the more technical striker, but he doesn’t handle pressure well, and, well, Almeida is Almeida. The Brazilian will get stronger the later the fight goes, and eventually put the wood to Font too much for Font to continue. Thomas Almeida via TKO, round 3.

Victor Rodriguez: Oh, god no. Font’s not gonna fall for the flashy stuff, nor is he someone that’s overwhelmed by what Almeida brings. He’ll be able to match him one for one on the feet, but then slow the pace down and eventually take Almeida down to earn some control time while in dominant position. That’ll cost Almeida on the scorecards. Rob Font by decision.

Staff picking Almeida: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Tim, Stephie, Anton
Staff picking Font: Phil, Eddie, Fraser, Victor

Kyle Bochniak vs. Brandon Davis

Zane Simon: Bochniak is likely the slightly better athlete, and maybe even the very very slightly better wrestler and grappler, but he just doesn’t have much offense to his game. He only throws one strike at a time, and even if they have power, his pace is too low to turn that into momentum. His wrestling and grappling games have a willingness to them, but not a ton of control. On the other side Davis throws so much volume that Carlos Condit would be embarrassed. At some point that’s just going to be too much for a guy who hasn’t shown enough ways to hurt his opposition. Brandon Davis by TKO, Round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Firstly: Brandon Davis, sir, although you have spelled it differently, there is already a Killa B in the UFC and you are not him. I’m just not sure what Bochniak… does in fights. Is he a counter fighter? He seems to largely circle and shoot counter takedowns, and he has this odd, blitzing combination where he comes in behind a left and lands a short clipping overhand which was his only real success against Jeremy Kennedy. Davis doesn’t look like a great takedown defender or… anything defender, so I can see him getting too caught up in his own offense and hurt or taken down by Bochniak, or even just tiring himself out with his own offense as he has in the past… but again I’m just not sure how Bochniak plans to win fights in the UFC, and Davis at least has a plan (“punch the other guy tons and tons of times”). Brandon Davis by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Bochniak: Bissell, Tim
Staff picking Davis: Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Zane, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Victor, Stephie, Anton

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Sabah Homasi

Phil Mackenzie: This fight was a silly toss-up between two guys with huge offense and no defense the last time they fought. That was exactly how it played out, and I didn’t learn anything. I still think it’s a coin flip so I’m going to stick with the more athletic fighter. Abdul Razak Alhassan by TKO, round 1

Zane SImon: Honestly, I feel like I learned that for every second he’s not getting brutally cracked, Homasi will consistently be delivering the better, more clinical offense on Alhassan, who himself got rocked a couple times in their bout. If Homasi can fight with even a little more defensive responsibility, my guess is he can weather the early storm and get the win. Sabah Homasi by TKO, Round 2.

Staff picking Alhassan: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Phil, Eddie, Fraser, Tim, Stephie, Anton
Staff picking Homasi: Mookie, Zane, Victor

Dustin Ortiz vs. Alexandre Pantoja

Phil Mackenzie: Despite him having been around for quite a while now, I still feel like I have some significant gaps in how I view Ortiz. I still can’t quite get my head around how he can look great sometimes, and utterly pedestrian at others. I think it’s something about the range people fight him at- he’s far more effective if given a free-flowing wrestleboxing approach, but if someone jams up the gears with either effective counterpunching or a better scrambling game, the whole thing tends to seize. Ortiz has beaten some very high level scramblers, though, so the question is: is Pantoja on the level of a Benavidez, Formiga or Reis? Or is he closer to Young Borg, Scoggins, or Makovsky? Without much confidence, I’m going to say the second. Dustin Ortiz by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Phil’s got the right of it here. There’s a type of fighter that beats Dustin Ortiz, and despite evidence to the contrary, I’m not even sure that Brandon Moreno is that guy 6/10 times. Pantoja tends to close himself out of distance and in tight with his off balance power combos, and is exceptionally willing to accept whatever position on the mat to start a scramble. And while he likely lands the harder shots standing, I just don’t see the consistency there or that athleticism on the ground to make me think he stops Ortiz from out-hustling him over 3 rounds. Dustin Ortiz by decision.

Staff picking Ortiz: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Eddie, Zane, Fraser, Stephie
Staff picking Pantoja: Dayne, Mookie, Victor, Tim, Anton

Julio Arce vs. Dan Ige

Zane Simon: Ige is a powerful wrestler and that goes a long way in MMA. But, without a lot of secondary tools, it doesn’t go as far as it used to in MMA. Ige just doesn’t produce much offense in any position, whether it’s in the clinch, in top control, or out at range, he tends to bank on control or single power shots to take rounds. Arce strikes me as just a bit too composed, adaptable, and aggressive a striker, to get stuck on the mat or fence for three rounds without landing the better offense. And, if Arce can hurt Ige, he’s way way more likely to find the follow-up shots to finish him. Julio Arce via decision.

Phil Mackenzie: If there’s one thing that stands out here it’s Arce’s tendency to throw multiple shots when his opponent comes with one. Ige tends to patiently close down the other man, then throw a left hook or a right hand while he figures out his takedown entry. Arce, conversely, tends to throw short barrages of punches, but notably without unbalancing himself too much. He does occasionally tie up too much for his own good, but I think that the volume and power disparity favours him, and his first layer takedown defense has looked much better since those Kelleher losses. Tiger Schulmann is increasingly a camp where I am very impressed by the technical polish of the fighters coming out of it. Julio Arce by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Arce: Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Zane, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Ige: Bissell, Fraser, Victor, Stephie

Enrique Barzola vs. Matt Bessette

Phil Mackenzie: This feels like a good matchup for Barzola. Against a man who throws hard, short punches he should be able to both pick him off with janky kicks at a distance and hit counter takedowns when Bessette tries to wade inside. Enrique Barzola by unanimous decision

Zane Simon: Against strikers who don’t want to wrestle with Bessette (and who can’t just knock him out) Bessette is a handful to deal with. He’s got great cardio, an almost Eddie Alvarez-esque ability to bounce back from getting dropped, and a functional power striking and crafty guard grappling game, all of which ensures that he’ll be the stronger fighter down the stretch. A lot of Bessette’s wins start with him getting blasted, and end with him marching his opponent down, hurting them, forcing them into a takedown (or even him just diving for a leg lock), and then getting the submission. The thing is, without great wrestling, and with an over-reliance on guard grappling, fighters who have just been confident enough to take him down and work him over from top, have beat him. Guard grappling is a great skill for regional MMA, but a tough ask for the upper levels, where everyone tends to have a well-schooled defensive top ride. That is absolutely the best part of Barzola’s game and should get him through here. Enrique Barzola by decision.

Staff picking Barzola: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Phil, Fraser, Mookie, Victor, Tim, Stephie, Anton
Staff picking Bessette: Eddie

Islam Makhachev vs. Gleison Tibau

Phil Mackenzie: It’s possible to point to the recent downturn in the UFC’s fortunes as being the results of over-reliance on a few stars; on a promotional machine as a conveyor which only picks up pieces of a certain size or shape; on lazy new management combined with a certain cash-glutted holdover whose priority is increasingly and solely the masturbatory joy of s—-talking his own employees. But what if it’s that the organization has become unmoored in some more significant way?

”The Khazars believe that deep in the inky blackness of the Caspian Sea there is an eyeless fish that, like a clock, marks the only correct time of the universe. In the beginning, according to Khazar legend, all creation, the past and the future, all events and things, melted as they swam in the fiery river of time, former and subsequent beings mixing like soap and water. At the time, to the horror of others, every living thing could create any other living thing; it was not until the Khazar god of salt ruled that beings could give birth only to their own image that an end was put to their willfulness.”

Perhaps Gleison Tibau is the eyeless fish of the UFC; the timeless stability at the heart of all things and in his absence, they’ve started shaking themselves apart. Now history echoes again, with a young Dagestani wrestling prospect trying to make his name, and the gyre of time rotates through another cycle. I know that eventually even this must collapse in on itself… but can I bring myself to believe that it happens now? I can’t. I won’t. Instead give me the monolith and the clock against which all else is measured. The clinch. Some punches which are hard enough to discourage, but not enough to stun or finish. Exactly 8.25 minutes of cardio. LET’S GO, TIBAU PRIME. Gleison Herculano Alves, 29-28 (28-29) 29-28

Zane Simon: The thing is, guys who fight like Makhachev haven’t done all that well against Gleison Tibau. Even in a win, Khabib Nurmagomedov put on one of the least awe inspiring performances of his career. And while Makhachev takes his game from Khabib, he doesn’t have his training partner’s unbelievable athletic ability. Some part of me expects Tibau to return like he never left, every bit the brick house that he was, and grind out 2/3s of a fight for a win. But he’s 18-years into an MMA career, and coming off a long layoff for a drug test failure. Against a technical, reasonably athletic wrestler, who will work hard to take it to him for 3 rounds. My guess is that this is where the split decision slips the other way. Islam Makhachev by split decision.

Victor Rodriguez: Tibau is still Tibau. He’s still good at making his opponent look… not great. Makhachev is good, but his style is not conducive to breaking the Tibau schematics of a fight and keeping the fight where it suits him best. Suspension be damned, I’m sticking with the steady hand here. Gleison Tibau by ugly split decision.

Staff picking Makhachev: Bissell, Nick, Dayne, Zane, Mookie, Tim, Stephie, Anton
Staff picking Tibau: Phil, Eddie, Fraser, Victor