Alistair Overeem vs. Francis Ngannou co-headlines UFC 218 this December 2, 2017 at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.
One sentence summary
David: Sandpower meets horsepower in this battle of oversized anthropomorphic energies.
Phil: The last generation meets the new generation in a fight which is a couple of dozen ammo belts and pouches away from being a Rob Liefeld splash cover.
Stats
Record: Alistair Overeem 43-15-1 NC | Francis Ngannou 10-1
Odds: Alistair Overeem +195 | Francis Ngannou -235
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: After his loss to Ben Rothwell, the narrative that Overeem was an underachiever who couldn’t grow out of the intangibles that plagued him as a LHW seemed like gospel. Overeem folds like a lawn chair under pressure and can’t use the same defense he did in K-1 because the gloves cover more than the knuckle. But then, things just started clicking. A tune-up over Stefan Struve, and a series of high profile fights later, and Overeem was back. Hell, he is back. For Overeem, it’s a question of whether or not he’s still dangerous enough at his current plateau. I couldn’t think of a more appropriate opponent to test his status.
Phil: This is the dichotomy of Overeem. For all his obvious tendencies to fold in fights, the man just will. not. give. up. Every time you think: he can’t possibly come back from this brutal loss, somehow he’s still there in his next fight, looking as smug and dangerous as ever. He racks up a few wins, gets caught, and goes back to the drawing board. He seems like a guy whose ego would splinter under these repeated setbacks, as well as someone primed to physically disintegrate. But here we are. 43-15-1 is one *hell* of an MMA record to have, particularly one conducted almost entirely at the higher levels of the sport.
David: From child sandminer to deadly intransient, Ngannou has officially arrived as a potential UFC champion. Ngannou’s fascinating story seems to accidentally inform his fascinating skillset. In most instances, especially at heavyweight, all of this MF’ing ruckus he’s bringing would just be a typical heavyweight tale of what happens when you swing punches at big dudes, and land more often than not. But not here. There is equal amounts of poetry, and equal amounts pop to the violence Ngannou brings to the cage, and I can’t think of a better opponent to dramatically test his striking skills than Overeem.
Phil: Ngannou has a fascinating story; a true rags to riches tale wending its way from Cameroon to France to the USA, as documented by Chad Dundas in his excellent recent piece. Worth remembering that much like Max Holloway in the main event, Ngannou was a stellar prospect who was basically brought in to lose to another prospect higher on the food chain. Whereas Holloway would predictably lose to Poirier, Ngannou had a reasonably shocking win over Curtis Blaydes. He was physically gifted, but if he was going to win then it was going to be by clubbing Blaydes unconscious early. There was no real reason to assume that he was going to be able to stuff the takedowns of a NJCAA champion… but that’s what he did. That’s been the real story of Ngannou as a fighter since then. Incredible athleticism, but layered with shockingly fast technical development.
What’s at stake?
David: Ngannou’s profile will be raised considerably in victory, which is why many people are rooting for him. Not just because he has a great story, but because it represents something exciting about heavyweight. Alas, a heavyweight fighter who isn’t getting cozy with certified human scum, throwing boomerangs, or committing muscle cell suicide at Grasso’s gym of ligament slap chop.
Phil: Title shot! For Ngannou, anyway. If he doesn’t win, the UFC heavyweight division once again spirals into weirdness. I really don’t think Cain is ever going to be in shape to fight again, to be honest. Werdum rematch? Overeem rematch? There really is little out there for poor Stipe.
Where do they want it?
David: Overeem is so strange when you think about it. Here’s a guy who was cooking fools on the ring grill in K-1, came back to MMA, and has gone to the dance with only partially what brought him. His skillset is as violent as they come, but it he’s content to tease violence more than activate. This is, of course, an evolution of his efficiency. Not a criticism. From afar, you’d expect him to be a little more dangerous given his height. I have this weird theory that the fact that he wasn’t much of a puncher at LHW explains some of why he’s not better at managing distance with his punches at HW – one of the fights I rewatched for this preview were his bouts with Rogerio (it’s disorienting, Pan Ams pedigree or not). I bring this up because this fight will require him to test that particular skillset. Unless he does what he’s best at – managing the range with his kicks, running patrol with overhand punches from both stances, and getting inside to destroy opponents’ internal organs with knees inside the clinch. His more measured approach is both a hindrance and an asset. Against Ngannou, we’ll see how well that works…
Phil: For all the MUSCLES and EXPLOSION in this fight (and in part because of them) I expect it to be quite slow paced, in the early going at least. Overeem’s physical frailty and spotty gas tank meant that he was a poor bully, who would have to gamble that his first surge would be enough to finish an opponent. When it wasn’t, he was in serious trouble. His later incarnation might not have the same comic-book physique, but he makes a lot more sense as a fighter. Feinting and pot-shotting from the outside allows Overeem to play a nasty game between the left cross, body kick, leaping hook and step-knee, while keeping his takedowns in the back pocket. As an MMA fighter, it’s the most efficient way to fight that he’s found. It’s not without its risks, obviously. If the pace gets away from him, or if someone starts spending too much time in the pocket, then the Reem can start to fade or deteriorate defensively, normally both at once.
David: Shape your skills to become different then them. These are words from Ngannou’s trainer to Ngannou. Even if I were 6’5, walked around past the heavyweight limit, and was a K-1 champ, these words would make me s–t my pants twice over (once during breakfast, once before sleep). That’s not inspiration from a coach. That’s a description of someone watching Rawhide Rex fuel his energies with dead souls. I read that comment to mean “transcend skill itself”, and see French Kurgan putting together a mythic blade inside a rundown apartment to rule the world while sitting on a throne of mandibles.
But is it accurate? Ngannou has a unique way of moving about. He doesn’t really strike from angles, although he can, so much as angle his strikes. That Arlovski knockout was from a punch that came from his hip, but that didn’t require wind up on. His knockout of Luis Henrique was similar. At his best, he manages to turn otherwise sweeping, hooking punches into insertions. Speed, power, and crackerjack timing make him a unique fighter in ANY division. He’s not just tossing chingasos in the alley. He’s making deliberate punch entries in unorthodox ways, and using light, deft footwork to coordinate those entries. That entry left hook is something of a money punch for him, and I’m wondering how well it’s gonna look against Overeem’s breezy, but fairly calculated defense. At the same time, Ngannou has found himself on the ground before, and while he’s not a liability, any exchange that turns into an Overeem clinch, and eventually an Overeem in top control represents the one major disadvantage Ngannou will have in this electric bout.
Phil: Agreed. Ngannou is the second part of the reason why I expect this fight to be pretty cautious. The style that came to Overeem as the result of years of fighting and being shaped by coaches and his own limitations appears to come naturally to Ngannou. He is a thoughtful, counter-oriented fighter who likes to absorb his opponents tendencies before crushing them. His responses tend to be more talent than technique, however. That step back shovel punch against Arlovski was simultaneously impressive and non-replicable.
He has an organic understanding of where his opponent will be and what sort of angle he should throw along to put his fist where their head will be. I do wonder whether that tendency might play against him here. Overeem has such a deep toolset that if Ngannou decides to play at range and read him, Overeem could conceivably cycle through all the things he’s learned without ever really repeating. stomp kick, jump knee, feint left hook, feint left overhand, make smug face, jab, step knee, etc etc.
Insight from past fights
David: I think the Mark Hunt provides some specific insight. Not so much about the clash of mechanics, but from watching Overeem respond to that interstitial danger fighters like Hunt and Ngannou represent – fighters who can end the bout with one punch. Essentially, Overeem has ditched the horsemeat for a more vegan pugilism. Overeem won’t get caught in a firefight. As he did with Hunt, he’ll keep it conservative, stay at range, retreat (no I’m not being derogatory with this description), rinse and repeat. He’ll be for takedowns from the clinch as well. Not only is it his path to victory, but it’s the weird artifact buried in a foreign land underneath voodoo booby traps he’ll need for that special key to victory.
Phil: It’s worth noting looking back at Overeem’s fights that he has badly hurt almost everyone he has fought since Rothwell. Stipe might have finished Overeem, but Overeem came incredibly close to OHKOing him, and might have finished him off had he gone for GnP rather than that ill-fated guillotine. Werdum escaped relatively intact, but also proved the futility of trying to win a slow-paced, shot-for-shot fight with Overeem. However, it’s also notable how tired Overeem was in the third. His gas tank was never spectacular, and I suspect it might be failing even more in his late career.
X-Factors
David: Nothing of real note. Unless Overeem is grinding Ngannou down in the clinch and not landing takedowns, it’ll be interesting to watch Ngannou perform in the later rounds, but I don’t see that happening. I think either Ngannou is able to separate quickly, or Overeem grabs that takedown and just neutralizes him.
Phil: We’ve just never seen Ngannou perform against someone with Overeem’s level of skill. He knocked out Arlovski, but Andrei is historically truly dreadful if forced to lead against an opponent.
Prognostication
David: As you said, Overeem can cycle through a variety of attacks to keep Ngannou at bay. This absolutely gives him an advantage, but the challenge for Overeem there is that his cycling offense needs to be more urgent. Overeem is still prone to getting hurt, and his response to getting hurt is still a tactical nightmare. Against a fighter like Ngannou, who has relatively intelligent instincts to compliment his athletic and explosive (oops) skillset, there’s an obvious path to victory for Overeem that I simply see getting easily sidetracked by Ngannou’s potent attack. Francis Ngannou by TKO, round 2.
Phil: I keep going back and forth. On the one hand, I think Overeem is a terrible stylistic matchup for Ngannou. Potshotting and counters are a disastrous way to go about fighting the Reem. On the other hand, Ngannou might just be a terrible physical matchup for Overeem. He’s always been able to overpower his opponents, and when he hasn’t, even the clunkier and more defensively porous fighters have been able to get to him. Of his more surprising losses, they’ve generally been to people who are very big, and very strong. Rothwell, Bigfoot, Browne. In the end, I’d be very unsurprised to see Ngannou get clocked for a sweeping hook, or just get bamboozled at range…but I can’t get how badly Overeem faded against Stipe and Werdum out of my head. If he shells up against the cage or runs away from Ngannou he’ll get murdalized. Francis Ngannou by TKO, round 2.