Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jodie Esquibel this October 21, 2017 at the Ergo Arena in Gdańsk, Poland.
One sentence summary:
David: That dog’s girl is a DOG!
Phil: The ghetto version of JJ-Rose, where the favored Polish fighter goes up against a lesser version of herself.
Stats:
Record: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 10-2 Jodie Esquibel 6-2
Odds: Karolina Kowalkiewicz -550 Jodie Esquibel +425
History / Introduction to Both Fighters
David: Karolina is on the proverbial “drawing board”. In MMA that just means recovering from traumatic bodily harm and figuring out how to prevent traumatic bodily harm the next time. Or “extreme unadulterated violence” if you’d prefer, Ariel. After an impressive underdog showing against JJ, the UFC gave her the toughest possible fight to rebound from, and sure enough, Claudia Gadelha, who has improved leaps and bounds, absolutely destroyed KK. It was a tough beat, which is why the UFC is giving her Esquibel. To make amends (presumably).
Phil: This is as favourable a bounce back as you’re likely to get in the strawweight division. KK is in an awkward spot: a bit better known than most, but still definitely the underdog who battled her way to fight for the belt and is now going to have to fight extra hard to keep her spot. The two things which insulate her should be the rivalry with JJ (such as it is) and the sheer spoilerrific nature of her fighting style.
David: To be perfectly honest, I track TUF these days through random gifs if they come across my timeline on Twitter, snark directed at the quality of the fights, and one of my coworkers whose husband makes her watch and who expects me to answer the same question every week “why are the coaches always douchey?” So my familiarity with Esquibel is limited to Invicta, and Dana White’s TUF commentary. Esquibel is a classic ham and egger with a side of chorizo. And no Phil, chorizo is not black pudding.
Phil: As it has withered away as source of elite talent, and ratings, and, like, entertainment, TUF has remained a shining example of one singular fact about MMA: it is exceptionally high-variance, or as I like to say “random as all hell”. Esquibel was one of the better talents to enter TUF 23, but also one of the better fighters to wash out without even getting onto the show (shout outs to Joe Duffy, who did much the same thing). Anyway, after a long combat sports career across boxing and MMA, she’s here to try to replicate some of what Jackson-Wink teammate Holly Holm accomplished.
What’s at stake?
David: I mean, if Karolina loses that’s a huge upset but for the most part the only thing at stake is classic nationalism. Karolina is on this card because this fight is taking place in Poland. Why doesn’t the UFC stick to sports, and put its fighters in a cage with unlimited access to steel boners, like back in the day?
Phil: Never underestimate the bleakness that can be mustered by a favored hometown fighter getting beaten. Gustafsson in Sweden probably remains the gold standard, which even a bad KK loss wouldn’t be able to touch.
Where do they want it?
David: Karolina may not be violently literate the way Gadelha or Joanna are, but she keeps her offense at a nice boil. She shuffles around and moves in different directions to create space for her punches. Her movement isn’t flashy, but it’s smooth and subtle. As a result, damage kind of accumulates here and there until opponents have to beat the clock. It sounds hopeless and boring in some ways, but it’s really just fight philosophy come to life. Rather than use a top down approach (“My right hand is made of rolled up quarters in a meat sock! I should throw them! Always! – Mike Perry, 2017), Karolina takes a wide path with a front to back journey that demands distance, geography, and pace. I mean, I apologize if this sounds like MMA snob wank but I’m actually just borrowing terminology I once read a 400 page book on Magic the Gathering tactics and strategy. You can make fun of me for that, but get your facts straight at least. An MMA snob I am not. Hey, how far are you into Robin Black’s vlog on Kuhnian dynamics in catch wrestling antiquities?
Phil: Karolina is looking to slot neatly into place as the Moraga / Elkins / Guida-type gatekeeper for the division. She’s not massively athletic, or even technically slick, but she works at an unbelievable pace and is teak-tough. She favours blitzing rushes, often ending them with a kick. Defense is often something of an afterthought, but she has a lot of faith in her chin, and those rushes aren’t often really there to do damage anyway. Instead she’s riding them into the clinch, where she has an iron single and double collar grip, and lands soul-sapping knees and elbows on the break. Her best trait is just that she’s impossible to discourage. She hurt Jedrzejczyk badly with little more than sheer willpower.
David: Esquibel’s game is basic in all the ways that benefit fighters, and all the ways they don’t. She’s a little small for the division – having fought at atomweight for most of her career – but she’s got those bulldog Jessica Andrade genes. Which is fitting given her relationship with Keith Jardine. Any chance Joe Rogan can keep himself from saying “that girl is a DOG!!”? Anyway, what I like about Esquibel is that even though she’s limited in her movement – pacing forward in lumbering fashion towards clinches and takedowns – she actually has some quality outside instincts. With some practical back and forth movement, she chambers a reasonable overhand right behind an outside high kick that cuts through the struggles you’d expect to see from a fighter of her style.
Phil: Like Kowalkiewicz, Esquibel makes the most of ridiculous physical toughness in order to paper over some gaps in her outside technique. Whereas KK favours those karate-style blitzing rushes, Esquibel tends to come in behind loopier shots. There is a method to the madness- she does a decent job of selecting the right shot to catch lateral movement, and surprises with the odd Jackson-Wink front kick up the middle. She’s a developing takedown artist, and as you might expect can take a hell of a shot. That’s where the problems start, though, because she does take rather a lot of them. As an undersized strawweight without a whole lot of power, she frequently finds herself wading through fire.
Insight from past fights?
David: It’s always concerning to see a high level fighter get styled on in one area, but Gadelha is frankly, on another planet when it comes to grappling and her punch entries are way better than what Jodie has to offer. Where Gadelha has menacing strikes to close the distance, and rawhide strength to power through doubles and singles, Esquibel has some chopping strikes, and attrition clinch options. All things Karolina is significantly better at.
Phil: Kowalkiewicz is not the range striker that Grasso is, but I think she can replicate much of what the Mexican did: keeping Esquibel on the end of her punches. I actually think Kowalkiewicz might be a better counter puncher than she is an offensive boxer, it’s merely that a lot of the fighters she’s been up against have been taller and have fought long enough that the counters have been hard to come by. I doubt she has those problems against Esquibel.
X-Factors
David: None that I can think. Esquibel has a professional boxing record so maybe this is one of those scenarios (admittedly common) where TUF stifles specialist tendencies. I haven’t done a scientific study on this or anything but the notion feels right – fighters, especially young ones are either overcoached by foolish promises of well roundedness or undercoached by the ghost of well roundedness.
Phil: Esquibel is traveling to the home country of her opponent for her UFC debut, in the co-main event. She’s a doughty pro, but that’s some serious pressure for your entry point into the organization.
Prognostication
David: Kowalkiewicz won’t blow Esquibel out. That’s just not her style. In fact, I expect moments of challenging exchanges, but KK’s movement, smarts, and hometown will get her through. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision Phil: Co-sign. It’s a fight built for Esquibel to have some moments of success while never really having a realistic path to victory. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by unanimous decision.