Joanne Calderwood vs. Cynthia Calvillo co-headlines UFC Fight Night 113 at the The SSE Hydro in Glasgow, Scotland on Sunday, July 16th.
One sentence summary
David: Maximum effort from Maxim’s across-the-universe issue.
Phil: “Surely THIS hot, talented strawweight will pan out the way we hope” the UFC grumbles after multiple failed attempts
Stats
Record: Joanne Calderwood 11-2 Cynthia Calvillo 5-0
Odds: Joanne Calderwood +160 Cynthia Calvillo -185
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: Calderwood was a nominal talent on TUF: Mean Girls. Technically proficient, but unrefined in transition. Rather than really focus on her weaknesses, she just kind of double downed on her technique to great effect. I honestly never saw her getting this far. She had charm, sure. A glowing personality and an exciting style, yea whatever. But I slave over this google doc to appreciate fighting. I was skeptical Calderwood was anything more than a female Paul Taylor – fun to watch, but questionable future. I’ve enjoyed being wrong. The Casey and Letourneau fights in particular showcased talents she’s been building on since 2014. This is another tough fight though. And yet another bout where I probably underestimate her.
Phil: Jojo distinguished herself by being one of the genuinely nice people on that season of TUF, one who even selective editing couldn’t make look horrible. She also underperformed, though, being one of the hot picks on the way into the house, and getting crushed by Namajunas in the second round. So, on her way into the UFC proper she had a bit of a strange vibe around her: people really wanted to like her, but were also a bit worried that she might not have what it takes. The insta-armbar loss to Maryna Moroz didn’t help, either. Still, it looks like she’s at least partly put some of the personal problems which had plagued her behind her, and she’s righted the ship somewhat of late.
David: Calvillo burst onto the scene like gangbusters. A swift win over Amanda Cooper and it was like strawweight had a maybe contender. Then the Pearl Gonzalez fight happened. A win is win. And had she had more time in the first round, I might be talking about her differently. But Gonzalez, who I don’t think is a good fighter by any stretch, seemed to neutralize her at times. On top of that, I gotta nitpick anyone who quotes Nate Diaz. It’s like a director who isn’t Martin Scorsese playing the Rolling Stones in their film. Unless you can equal or surpass Scorsese, don’t even. That obviously has nothing to do with her talent, but if she’s growing Nate Diaz guts, she better wear them. Just saying.
Phil: Calvillo is, to me, a bit of an illustration of what might be driving the UFC’s promotional decisions. She has received a push which seems somewhat at odds to what we can see on the surface: she’s a good, charismatic fighter, but getting two straight main card PPV slots seems… odd. Essentially, there’s something we can’t see which is going on underneath the surface. My guess is that the UFC’s sentiment analytics and widgets which they have monitoring Instagram and Facebook and suchlike have been coming out with results that say “POTENTIAL STAR.”
The potential talent there is undeniable, but Calvillo is still only 5-0, and 29 years old. It’s a fine tightrope to walk.
What’s at stake?
David: Just the usual. Whoever wins gets to gets that much closer in line for Jedrzejczyk’s abattoir.
Phil: I think Calderwood is seen as a gatekeeper at this point. If Calvillo gets past her, she can get some harder matchups, like Esparza. It’s going to be harder for Calderwood to move up the food chain, though.
Where do they want it?
David: Calderwood is an impatient out-fighter. Her length allows her to attack with kicks from her weak side, which she doesn’t always throw at range. She’s a fairly dedicated overhand right-left hook combination striker. In recent bouts she’s benefited a lot from that spinning s— (copyright Nick Diaz). Her spinning back roundhouse and spinning back elbow have illustrated just how fight changing her arsenal is at its most eclectic. Perhaps the most effective new wrinkle in her game is her top control. She looks for trip takedowns, and from the top, displays a strong – dynamic even – ground and pound attack. Defensively is where she’s weakest. She’s perpetually open for an overhand right, doesn’t move her head, and then there’s the submission stuff she’ll have to worry about here.
Phil: Calderwood has been an avatar of blue-collar Scots violence whose game is predicated around opponents being unable to keep up. Without much in the way of one-punch power, she instead is a porcupine of front kicks and leg kicks who simply overloads those who try to close in until they tire of getting needles jabbed in their face and body. Like a lot of Thai specialists, she’s deceptively strong and offensively capable in the clinch, and her time at Tristar seems to have greatly improved both her wrestling and her tendency to start slowly, although these are still flaws that will likely be present throughout her career.
David: Calvillo is a pugilist of agility and movement. On the feet she sticks and moves with a strong jab and nimble combinations. They’re not heavy or intimidating but she keeps her opponent warm on the feet. Her strength is on the ground. That back take on Cooper was next level – an example of her ability to anticipate traditional ground counters. She does a good job of pivoting and angling out and in for attacks. At this point it’s just a question of degree, and whether these talents hold up against top competition.
Phil: Calvillo presents that tantalizing mixture of a prospect who can do genuinely impressive things within their core competencies, who also looks as though they are quickly picking up on the fundamental structures of other areas. She doesn’t look like a good striker yet, but you can see from the way she moves, judges distance and times her strikes that it’s only really a matter of time. She still paws a bit, but she has good eyes, can punch in combinations, and feeds head movement and parries into her defense, while still being able to phase-shift into takedowns.
The main question is in experience and comfort; if she gets stuck in there with someone who has a much deeper well of experience to draw on. She can box… but Calderwood is not going to box with her. Jojo’s raw-boned MT is not something you really want to be in there for long if you’re not ready for it.
Insight from Past Fights
David: It’s silly to glean so much from her fight with Gonzalez. But the fight revealed a formula for beating Calvillo – she gets by on quickness and speed, but she’s not especially strong and she doesn’t have fight ending power on the feet. If the old non-adage that time favors the more dynamic is only half true of Calvillo, then she’s in for an uphill battle. She’s nothing like Clay Guida’s option A-wrestle option B-because-opponent-has-wrestling; go buckwild and throw heaters with your head down (underrated Soundgarden song). But you could see where she’ll have trouble in the future and I don’t know that anything in her arsenal offsets this problem. I don’t think she’ll panic against Calderwood.
Calderwood is sturdy, but she’s not technical against the takedown. However, if Calderwood can stay inside the clinch when Calvillo is coming after her, I could see her bullying Calvillo at critical moments. At the same time I don’t think Calvillo will need many submission darts to land on Calderwood’s defense bullseye, which has a large radius. All of Calderwood’s losses, including TUF, have been by submission. She just doesn’t have a real acute grasp of submissions. She’s had a lot of fights and I find it almost odd (in its own way) that she doesn’t have a single submission win. Could be wrong, but I think that “says something”. Am I the only one nagged by this?
Phil: I often feel like submission defense is one of the areas of the fight game which is more of a look at potential insecurities than any other. Calderwood has been relatively candid about being someone who struggles with their self-confidence. It is very much a fact that there are certain fighters who, when the waters of a submission loss are closing in over their head, will panic and kick and shout and drown, whereas there are others who will cold-bloodedly work their way out. Calderwood isn’t a mentally weak fighter (a slow-starting AND mentally weak fighter is a recipe for not winning any fights ever), but she is one of those people who just doesn’t deal well with submission offense.
X-Factors
David: I like how in sports, hometown advantage is an asset – “don’t forget she also has the love of her people Mike!” – until it’s not – ”we talked about this Mike! Sometimes the burden of being the hometown hero is too much”. There’s no way I’m about to wax nostalgic over Rogan and Goldberg. But I think I understated how much Rogan’s artery busting OOOHHHHH(’s) were like a body’s pulse in a non sober setting. After enough beers, it’s practically the heartbeat of the reptilian brain. Luckily there’s a YouTube video with stupid music that doesn’t hide Rogan’s screaming in the so-good-it’s-bad Andrei Arlovski vs. Travis Browne fight.
Phil: Jojo blew weight, which is somewhat concerning. She’s been training with Tristar and also up in Mjölnir in Iceland, and she wasn’t looking in the greatest shape in the Mjölnir training videos. For someone as mercurial as Calderwood, it is a little bit of a red flag. Too many deep-fried Mars bars, perhaps.
Prognostication
David: I’m all over the place on this one. I could absolutely see Calderwood punishing Calvillo on the feet, hitting the clinch every now and then, and surviving a few ground onslaughts. Well, except that last part. Calderwood has been able to set up her combinations and general attack against fighters that stood right in front of her. Calvillo won’t do that. Yes, it’s nice of Calderwood to “let s— go”. But even if that wasn’t the gameplan, I can’t imagine seeing Calderwood setup for strikes WHILE avoiding every takedown attempt and THEN defending intelligently enough to avoid the submission. It kind of pains me to say it but: Cynthia Calvillo by rear naked choke round 2.
Phil: The two fights at the top of this card essentially have quite similar dynamics. A more consistent but less athletic kickboxer takes on a fast-starting power grappler. In both cases the grappler probably wins early, or the kickboxer wins down the stretch. I’m just a touch concerned by Calderwood’s current state, and Calvillo is more likely to show improvements, but if Calderwood gets into her flow any time in the first half of the fight, it may go downhill for the UFC’s latest pretty strawweight hopeful very fast. Cynthia Calvillo by submission, round 1.