Michael Chiesa and Kevin Lee remind everyone that lightweight is still elite this June 25, 2017 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
One sentence summary:
Phil: That super hype fight you’ve seen on all the promos between… a hobo and a member of Jodeci…?
David: The men who may not be the same men they were the day before they woke up prepare to suture up their futures.
Stats:
Record: Michael Chiesa 14-2 Kevin Lee 15-2
Odds: Michael Chiesa +125 Kevin Lee -135
History / Introduction to both fighters
Phil: Michael Chiesa has carved out an interesting niche for himself. Lightweight is normally a division for those who are super-well rounded, or hyper-specialized, and Chiesa has instead been an odd mix of a clinch violence machine and a backtake and RNC specialist. It doesn’t really seem like it’d be a particularly dominating mixture, and… it’s not? But he makes it work. As soon as someone messes up, he’s on them. His flaws are ever-present, but his ability to capitalize on mistakes at a moment’s notice and his general refusal to quit makes him a consistently fun fighter to watch.
David: Chiesa is some strange mix of Matt Brown and Dustin Hazelett – a durable bloodthirsty gumby who has specialist instincts and really, not much else. His resume makes it clear who he is. He’s a quality, dangerous gatekeeper who could sneak into the title picture with the right matchup, but whether or not he’s more Kenny Florian than Joe Lauzon remains to be seen.
Phil: Kevin Lee is not everyone’s favourite fighter. Personally I enjoy his abrasive, cocky style, where he just talks s— on everyone else in the division. I think there’s a slightly odd dynamic in those who watch MMA, where people are happy to make fun of the fighters, but instantly get their hackles up once the fighters themselves start to mock their peers. They should be more respectful!
Anyway, Lee shares something with Chiesa in that he seems to think that he’s a bit technically better than he actually is. It’s not necessarily a bad thing for either guy, but it’s very possible to see a dynamic where both see the other, think “wow, that guy’s striking is nothing special, I’m gonna mess him up on the feet,” and they’ll both be absolutely right about the first bit, and completely overrate themselves on the second.
David: MMA fans love to dish it out. They can’t, however, take it, as the tortured cliche goes. Personally I think it’s all in approach. Nate Diaz talks an unending amount of s—, but he’s 100% sincere, and his animosity comes from a place of warmth, as strange as that may sound. Nobody believes the Diaz brothers are phonies. Conor McGregor is a showman through and through. While we see through his facade, we don’t question them because it’s just another tactic.
Lee talks s—, and it’s not really forced so much as fumbled. He’s playing the game. Which I don’t begrudge any man for (except for Sonnen) trying to brand themselves since the gods know their own promoter won’t do it for them.
What’s at stake?
Phil: The UFC desperately want to inject some drama into this division, without having to pay Nate Diaz tons of money, so that they have at least some chance of keeping people interested and/or luring McGregor back. I think that’s been a significant motivating factor behind the weird amount of promotion this fight has gotten (that, and they just have nothing else on the docket). So, the winner likely gets something pretty high-profile, perhaps a bout with Ugly Tony.
David: This is one of the classic ‘show me’ bouts. If either one can win impressively, early and with a finish then the UFC has a title contender they can market as legit even if it’s not necessarily the fight lightweight deserves. Especially if it’s Lee. He’s winning the attitude battle.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Chiesa is a big, tough, fearless fighter. That can be good, and it can be bad. He normally works on the feet behind a probing jab, a big left hand and a range of front kicks. Like many Sikjitsu fighters, he gives the impression of being “organically” built- that he’s undergone loads of hard-sparring sessions where he’s learned to fight without actually being taught the fundamentals of footwork or defense. He’s not scared of getting hit or countered, but… maybe he should be? Still, he’s powerful and incredibly tough. His striking is mostly just the entry point to his grappling: he has a good counter double leg, and can mix up between tearing up opponents with knees and elbows and an array of outside trips and reaps. Once the fight hits the ground, he’s one of the most prolific backtake and RNC specialists around. Submitting Beneil Dariush was incredibly impressive.
David: Chiesa is one of those Ford tough scrappers – surviving exchanges through sheer will and focus like a martial art all its own. He doesn’t use his height and length well so much as he protects himself with it; avoiding strikes, jabbing to set up distance when he needs, kicking to threaten, and not always using it all to burn the clinch village for a scramble and hopefully back control. He’s a fighter of improvisation in a lot of ways but with a broad strategy. This makes him tough and consistent, but keeps his efficiency from being inevitable, if you will.
Phil: Kevin Lee is a strange mixture of being really very good, and… not being as good as he should be? He’s incredibly athletic, confident, trains out of a good gym, and has a fantastic wrestling and top control skillset to build off. Most importantly, his arms are ridiculously long: if he learned to throw a body jab, Lee and Ferguson could probably just trade the belt back and forth between themselves until some other stretch armstrong freak came along to take it from them.
But… he hasn’t learned a body jab. Instead, he has steadily improved his game while never quite building a coherent approach, or reaching that point where you can nod and say that he’s truly arrived. There’s always at least one point in his fights where he gets hit by something hard. That said, his footwork and shot selection have been improving, and he remains an utterly ferocious wrestler, top position grappler and ground and pounder.
David: Nailed it. Lee is an athlete first, fighter second. As in, his reptilian brain seems in control – springing forth with attacks and takedowns, leaving all the tactics and strategy to act as leftovers. Mechanically, he’s damn near elite. His left jab pierces from a good distance, like he watched Ike Quartey growing up. He lands it with power, and doesn’t telegraph it.
His striking is more parts than sum but not for the usual reasons. An overhand right he throws with the correct posture, a sneaky left hook he likes to sneak underneath with, and a dangerously active high kick attack compliment a versatile skillset. I say his striking is more parts than sum because of his defense. He has trouble building rhythm and momentum with his striking because he relies too much in angles and pivots to counter. The trouble with this is that because his offense doesn’t follow a flowchart (jabbing to the body, as you mentioned, would be a boon), his angles and pivots are reactionary rather than anticipatory. And so he ends up getting cracked in situations he might otherwise avoid. Jose Aldo has this same problem.
Insight from past fights
Phil: The Massuranduba fight is exactly the kind of thing I’m talking about with Lee. Did his striking look better? Sure. Did he also almost get finished? Yes. So it becomes oddly difficult to benchmark him. How much value should there be put in pulling off the ol’ Boxcar Homer “let the Brazilian beat you up in Brazil and get freaked out by the crowd and gas, then just be younger than him”, Holloway-style? It elevated his stock for me, with some significant caveats.
David: Even against an aging Jim Miller, I noticed that Chiesa has yet to break his awful defensive habits. When he lunges in with his punches, he still drops his head. It’s like a hockey player keeing his eyes on the puck rather than up ice. You lose your vision, and that’s exactly how Lee can cut through Chiesa’s clinch entries. Chiesa has succeeded because once he’s there, he’s brutal, strong, and technical. But Lee has the athleticism to pivot out and crack him from afar.
X-Factors
Phil: As unintentionally comical as their beef appears, it does look like Chiesa at least has genuinely bought into it to at least some extent. Maybe this will make him more sloppy and aggressive…? But then again, it’s Michael Chiesa.
David: I grew up on the Three Stooges. So naturally I laughed at Chiesa vs. Lee at that press conference. “Don’t talk about my mother!” repeated over and over like a swisha house track won’t go into the pantheon of awkward trash talk like “beat you into the living death”, but it’s good. Pantheon, right? Or is it pantheon level awkward? Help me with these question marks Phil.
Prognostication
Phil: On the feet this is a weird matchup between a guy who thinks he’s technical, and a guy who barely seems to care what technique is. Lee is the more likely to show fight-winning improvements, but also the more likely to get clobbered with a single giant left hand. However, he’s also the better athlete with the major physical advantages, and his wrestling and grappling has probably been even more dominant than Chiesa’s, minute to minute. Kevin Lee by TKO, round 4.
David: Punch entries, punch entries, punch entries. Chiesa just doesn’t have them. Lee may not necessarily have the vision to punish them easily. But he will punish them steadily. The fight obviously favors Chiesa on the ground, but I don’t see the fight going there. Lee maintains his distance. Lee controls the boxing. Kevin Lee by TKO, round 2.