Stipe Miocic has just over six years of professional MMA experience under his belt, but at UFC 198 he will face one of the heavyweight division’s most enduring competitors.
Not only is Fabricio Werdum the UFC champion, but he is inarguably one of the greatest heavyweights of all time, having bested such towering figures as Fedor Emelianenko, Cain Velasquez, and Alistair Overeem over the course of his rambling 14 year career. Werdum is a dangerous finisher in all phases. He has submitted Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and knocked out Mark Hunt.
In short, beating him is a tall order for any challenger, Miocic included.
But no champion is invincible. Last year, Rafael Dos Anjos and TJ Dillashaw didn’t just upset the champions in their respective divisions, they dominated them. Holly Holm didn’t just pick Ronda Rousey apart, she blew her to bits. Luke Rockhold battered Chris Weidman; Chris Weidman crushed Anderson Silva–twice; and Conor McGregor ended the longest reign in UFC featherweight history thirteen seconds into the first round.
We’ve seen enough stunning upsets this year–in championship fights alone–to know that a dangerous, well-rounded heavyweight like Stipe Miocic is not to be counted out at UFC 198. All it takes is the right gameplan.
And that’s what we’re here for today. Over the course of this piece, we will identify the tactical choices Miocic needs to make in order to wrench the UFC belt from Werdum’s hands. The three keys to victory are as follows, in order of precedence.
1) Maintain critical distance
2) Score takedowns against the fence
3) Counter the jab
Now let’s take an in-depth look at each of these keys, and unravel the strategy that could carry Stipe Miocic to glory and UFC gold.
3 – Counter the jab
In his current six-fight winning streak, no strike has been as crucial to Werdum as the jab. Around this simple, efficient punch, Werdum and trainer Rafael Cordeiro have built a dangerous out-fighter’s game, not unlike that of a classical boxer–but with more kicks.
Countering the jab, then, will enable Miocic to unravel the very fabric of Werdum’s standup game. Effective gameplans often center on the idea of “taking away” the opponent’s most effective weapons. That means not only avoiding his best shots, but actively punishing him for throwing them.
Fortunately, Miocic has an educated left hand of his own. Werdum uses excellent feints and awkward timing to land his jab, but he is also fond of the good old fashioned catch n’ counter, wherein he catches or parries his opponent’s jab and responds with the same punch.
By strategically jabbing with Werdum, Miocic will be able to more regularly dictate when and how the champion throws his jab, which will allow him to time sharp counters. Evander Holyfield did this to Larry Holmes when the two fought in 1992. You can see in the adjacent GIF how Holyfield, significantly shorter of body and limb, used his own jab to draw out the jab of Holmes. Holyfield didn’t worry overmuch about landing the jab. All he wanted to do was make Holmes think about it–keep it in his face, maybe touch his gloves or shoulder to get the distance. Without having committed to an attack, Holyfield was constantly in position to evade and then follow Holmes’ jab straight back to his chin with a hard counter. And because the jab was Holmes’ most reliable punch, his game was significantly weakened when it was taken away.
Miocic can do the same thing to Werdum. Fortunately for him, Werdum is nowhere near as crafty on the defensive as Larry Holmes, though he is more willing to make up for that by exchanging blows. Still, single strikes and short, precise combinations will enable Miocic to slowly erode the foundation of Werdum’s dangerous kickboxing.
However, there is one important caveat for Miocic. Werdum can be countered, but he is incredibly difficult to dissuade. Miocic would be well advised to counter Werdum’s jab in order to take it away, but not by force, per se. A fighter like Werdum responds extremely well to pressure and aggression. He is more than comfortable standing his ground and trading to dissuade an aggressive opponent. He is, by all appearances, virtually fearless in the midst of a firefight. And say what you will about “Vai Cavalo’s” defense, but this horse can go, for five straight rounds if need be.
So Miocic should not expect to scare Werdum off, or to put him away with a single strike. Rather than instilling uncertainty in the champion, Miocic should focus on simply frustrating him. His counters should be short and straight, the kind of efficient shots that Miocic can afford to throw for 25 minutes. He may not discourage the champion, but by consistently touching him with precise counters he can accumulate damage, and goad the crafty veteran into taking chances and making mistakes.
2 – Score takedowns against the fence
Fabricio Werdum is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the history of heavyweight MMA. Arguably the most dangerous. As such, most opponents shy away from taking him to the ground. This gives Werdum an innate advantage. Knowing that his opponents respect his grappling, Fabricio views the ground as his domain. He can fight confidently, even recklessly, knowing that there is always an ace up his sleeve.
The goal for Miocic, then, should be to pull this safety blanket out from under the champion’s feet, and put him on his back. Doing so safely, however, will require careful, tactical thinking. For a little grappling inspiration, let’s look to an unlikely source: Mark Hunt.
1. Hunt feints the jab.
2. Then follows with a leaping left hook. Werdum rolls under.
3. Hunt denies the takedown, however, with a quick underhook.
4. And his momentum helps him carry Werdum right off his feet, into the fence.
5. Though initially landing in half guard, Werdum quickly reguards and wiggles to his left.
6. Hunt posts a hand on the mat and pivots Werdum’s head back toward the fence.
7. Hunt stacks Werdum’s hips.
8. With a cheeky fence grab, Werdum spins his head away from the fence.
9. But Hunt simply repeats his previous maneuver, once again forcing Werdum’s head into the chain-link.
The first irony of the Hunt vs Werdum fight was that Werdum, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, managed to knock out the iron-chinned kickboxer in Mark Hunt. No one expected that–probably not even Werdum. But the second irony was that Mark Hunt managed to find more success in Werdum’s guard than just about anyone else in his UFC career. That’s Mark Hunt, the man with six submission losses to his name.
Hunt’s survival depended entirely on his tactic of revolving Werdum into the fence and stacking his hips. By doing so, he squashed Werdum’s body between his own hips and the wall of the Octagon, severely limiting Werdum’s ability to move his hips and create opportunities for submissions, sweeps, and escapes. Hunt even managed to get away with a few cardinal errors–posting his hands on the canvas, for example–because Werdum was utterly immobilized. And an immobile guard is an ineffective guard.
Miocic is a wrestle-boxer. Though capable on his feet, his game really flourishes when he is able to mix the two disciplines. Takedowns help to break the opponent’s rhythm and keep him on the reactive, setting him up for strikes. They give the fighter on top a chance to rest, and make life pretty miserable for the man on bottom. And should Werdum tire of being mashed into the fence and choose to wall walk, Miocic will be able to land precious strikes while he struggles to stand up.
If Miocic does manage to hit a takedown in open space (not an entirely bad idea) then the best option would be to quickly stand, and perhaps pepper Werdum’s legs with a few kicks. Only against the fence should Miocic opt to stay in Werdum’s guard for any length of time. By putting the champion down, however, Miocic will win crucial mental battles. Each takedown, each second spent in Werdum’s guard will send the Brazilian a message: standing up or on your back, I am in control of this fight.
1 – Maintain critical distance
Distance management is a critical aspect of nearly every strategy, but the task is different and more difficult for some fighters than others. Werdum, for example, will aim to keep Miocic at bay as often as possible. Though the UFC lists Miocic’s wingspan at 80 inches, three inches longer than Werdum’s, the champion is more accustomed to fighting long. He is also substantially leggier than Miocic, owning an additional six inches of leg reach (measured from hip to heel). With a potent array of kicks in his arsenal, Werdum the more versatile and dangerous fighter at long range.
Then there is the clinch. Miocic is certainly not lost in this phase, but Werdum is the more dangerous clinch striker, using the double collar tie to pull his opponent down into vicious knees and uppercuts before spinning him into the fence and unloading with punches.
This gives Werdum options, and he is well versed in how to use them. Stand far away, and he is content to kick and jab you to pieces. Close the gap, and he quickly looks to tie up and go to work in the clinch. Which leaves Stipe Miocic with a precious slice of range between the two–his critical distance.
This is why, in countering the jab and working his way into the pocket, Miocic must be careful not to overcommit. While doing so could certainly enable him to land a strike, it would also send him reeling straight through mid-range and into Werdum’s arms. Travis Browne learned that very painful lesson during his lopsided decision loss to Werdum in April of 2014.
1. Browne stalks Werdum.
2. Switching to southpaw, he lunges in with a right hook that clips Werdum behind the ear.
3. Werdum stumbles backward into the fence.
4. And Browne lunges after him, missing with another right hook as Werdum rolls.
5. Browne suddenly finds himself stuck in Werdum’s collar tie.
6. Browne tries to press away, but Werdum forces his hands back with an uppercut to the chin.
7. Now Browne tries to wait it out.
8. But Werdum creates space and spins Browne toward the fence.
9. Following up with a knee to the body.
10. Collar tie broken, Werdum sees an opening.
11. He cracks Browne with the jab.
12. And follows with a right hand to the ear, proceeding to lace Browne up and down with several more punches.
Opponents of Werdum have tended to think of the jab as a single barrier. Once they bypass that, they feel safe to swing away. Bursting past the jab and into the pocket, however, only allows Fabricio to grab his beloved collar ties and go to work. And the champion is always keen to follow up on his successes, which means every sloppy entry could be Miocic’s last.
Small steps are the key. As with everything else in this gameplan, a careful, measured approach is the ideal way to close distance with Werdum. Not cautious, per se, but methodical. When Miocic draws Werdum’s jab, that will be his opening into the pocket. Once there, he can land a few concise punches before angling away.
Angling away, though, presents its own difficulties, as Cain Velasquez now knows.
1. Werdum steps toward Velasquez.
2. He extends the jab, which Velasquez slips.
3. Werdum follows with another, forcing Velasquez to slip once again.
4. This time Werdum is ready, and Cain sways directly into a short right hook.
5. Pressing his advantage, Werdum advances and lands another jab as Velasquez retreats.
6. Velasquez begins to circle away.
7. Werdum jabs him again.
8. Velasquez circles some more, adding in a little head movement this time.
9. Werdum prompts that head movement with a jab feint.
10. And follows with a blistering right hand to the jaw.
Falling into Werdum’s clinch is a problem, but so too is wavering around on the end of his range. As the fight wore on and his body began to tire, Cain Velasquez repeatedly made the mistake of moving away from Werdum as he angled and slipped. Each time he stepped back, he allowed Werdum to time his head movement and footwork with hard, straight punches and kicks.
Miocic would do well to learn from Velasquez’s example. Each slip should carry him past the end of the jab and into his critical distance. His angles should not be loose and open, allowing Werdum to pivot and strike, but tight and close, forcing Werdum to turn or step back and exposing himself in the process.
Once again, sticking to this gameplan will be no easy task. Werdum has worn down and picked apart enough elite heavyweights at this point to warrant a great deal of respect. What he has not done, however, is faced a fighter exactly like Stipe Miocic. If Miocic can mold his crisp boxing and well-timed takedowns into the right strategy, the belt will be his.
For more UFC 198 analysis–and a fascinating interview with UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz–check out the latest episode of Heavy Hands, the only podcast dedicated to the finer points of face-punching.