The enigmatic grapplers of welterweight may or may not have Robbie Lawler’s attention this December 12, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Match Up
Welterweight Demian Maia 21-6 vs. Gunnar Nelson 14-1-1
The Odds
Welterweight Demian Maia -110 vs. Gunnar Nelson +100
3 Things You Should Know
1. Demian Maia is not as good as his last three wins indicate, but still elite.
It’s hard to figure out where exactly Maia falls on the gatekeeper-o-meter. Is he slightly above? Enough to take out the blue chips? In between? Enough to make fights against prospects competitive? Or just below? Waiting to do his unconscious pop a wheelie in response to the next big right hand?
He’s beaten Neil Magny, Ryan Laflare, and Alexander Yakovlev. These are some good wins, but not the kind of competition Maia is used to. Does Gunnar fall into that category? That’s the question.
2. Gunnar is the questionable gift that keeps on giving.
Nelson rebounded from his big Rick Story loss with a solid victory against Brandon Thatch. Whether or not this reveals development in his game remains to be seen. Finishes, for as much as we laud them, are like touchdowns; good for points and potential victory but they aren’t predictive. Thatch himself is kind of an enigma. Nelson may not be the future, but the future should still look over its shoulder if Gunnar’s looking in that direction.
3. Demian Maia vs. Gunnar Nelson is the most bathroom breakiest of the main card fights has the potential to make you regret your premature digestive extirpation.
Maia has plateaued as a fighter, but that doesn’t mean he’s not sitting on high ground. While his recent wins were good but a modest step down, he’s still the same fighter that worked his way towards a title shot. His boxing will never become elite, but it’s efficient enough to avoid those Marquardt moments. I’ve always felt he actually has ok power; he just doesn’t set his overhand strikes with anything except takedowns so he’s rarely in range to land on the end of his own punch.
His grappling is as ridiculous as it’s ever been. His understated strength, and elite mechanics means you’re basically toast if he’s got you in position for a submission. What I love about this fight is that Nelson is actually high level himself; one can only pray to the MMA gods we could ever see something like Sakuraba vs. Newton. These guys have drastically different ground games to produce something so catch as can wrestling, but it’s an ok candidate for something like it.
The more likely scenario is the more boring one; Gunnar keeps it on the feet, maintains his distance, and only ever has to deal with one round of ground warfare (which I think he can handle). Yes, Maia took Chael Sonnen down, but Gunnar will keep his distance far more efficiently. Maia would need to be a knee tap, double leg kind of wrestler with an explosive shot to get top control against Nelson. But Maia needs to inch his way into the pocket for clinch shenanigans. Gunnar won’t be having that.
Prediction
Gunnar’s low output, and general inertia will always be the part of his problem. It’s entirely possible Maia actually throws more punches. But I don’t see him landing enough while avoiding Gunnar’s kicks, and counter punches. This bout feels very mathematical; Gunnar tallies more keys to victory while Maia tallies less, and is more disadvantaged in the areas where Gunnar excels than Gunnar is at the areas where Maia excels. Gunnar Nelson by Decision.