An unexpectedly stacked undercard opens UFN 77 this November 7, 2015 at the Ginásio do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil.
The Line Up
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Lightweight Gleison Tibau vs. Abel Trujillo
Lightweight Yan Cabral vs. Johnny Case
Featherweight Clay Guida vs. Thiago Tavares
Featherweight Kevin Souza vs. Chas Skelly
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Welterweight Viscardi Andrade vs. Gasan Umalatov
Bantamweight Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera
Flyweight Bruno Rodrigues vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira
The Odds
Abel Trujillo +105 Gleison Tibau -125
Johnny Case -245 Yan Cabral +205
Clay Guida -165 Thiago Tavares +145
Chas Skelly -160 Kevin Souza +140
Gasan Umalatov -125 Viscardi Andrade +105
Jimmie Rivera +145 Pedro Munhoz -165
Bruno Korea +155 Matheus Nicolau -175
The Rundown
Lightweight Gleison Tibau vs. Abel Trujillo
Abel Trujillo is coming off a loss to Tony Ferguson. If you replaced the name Abel Trujillo with Gleison Tibau, the truth of both statements wouldn’t change. Outside of this pugilism error, both men have been predominantly stout fighters in the cage.
At this point we know exactly who Tibau is; good? bad? He’s the guy with the UFC career. Nothing much has changed since his entrance. Trujillo is a much more questionable presence; the type of fighter who either gets a sniff at contention in a high profile matchup, or the type who ends up in another promotion after a few bad losses.
Trujillo isn’t necessarily the better striker; he’s just a little more violent. But violence and efficiency are not mutually inclusive. Tibau is a massive LW who rarely translates his power into wins; settling on tic-tac-toe predictability that nonetheless commands respect. His strikes are deft, and varied. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Tibau win on the feet, but the more likely scenario is that 32 year old Abel Trujillo can’t maintain his high velocity boxing for long, and will get neutralized with savvy boxing, but mostly savvy grappling from the 32 year old veteran of 25 UFC bouts.
Lightweight Yan Cabral vs. Johnny Case
Case is a shocking 3-0 in the UFC, though he has yet to truly be tested. Cabral was a broken hand away from getting farther on the TUF: Brazil show, and his only blemish was to Zak Cummings at Welterweight.
This bout is very much the proverbial “clash of styles”. Cabral needs to win on the ground, and Case needs to win on the feet. Case’s only submission loss was in his debut 8 years ago. He’s pretty solid on the ground. The odds are kind of strange; Case hasn’t done much at this point to set himself apart. Nor does he project to be some sort of blue chip prospect. He’s good though, so I don’t mean to argue that his elbows are too pointy. I just think he doesn’t unleash that straight right hand punch enough to offset an arsenal that sits too much in storage for my taste.
Cabral is modestly athletically; he doesn’t mess around on the feet too much. Usually this means that the fighter just sucks at striking. Cabral is actually pretty adroit there; against David Mitchell he snuck in a right hand counter that dropped him. But he correctly knows his strengths and plays to them rather than try to turn a weakness into a virtue. On the ground Cabral has agile back control, and swifty takes position. Case should be able to keep it on the feet long enough to win a decision, but it’ll be a tall task for the 6’1 fighter from Iowa.
Featherweight Clay Guida vs. Thiago Tavares
If you’re like me, you probably asked yourself “why are they having a rematch?” Unbelievably, these two have never fought despite running in the same division for years. Both have dropped in weight and now here we are.
At this point, they’re a little like a stick of gum that no longer tastes sweet, but is at least keeping your breath fresh.
I’m looking forward to this fight, all things considered. Guida has toned down the fun factor in recent years, while Tavares has turned it up a little (he throws strikes way more than he used to), but both are still a solid presence in the division Thiago has always been a very good, imposing grappler. But he can be outfoxed, and he can certainly be too adventurous on the feet. Just to speak freely, I think his striking was the worst piece of development in his game; not because it’s bad (he has good power, and great leg kicks), but because he doesn’t know how to keep a rhythm that prevents prime punch in the face chances from the opponent.
Guida’s striking never developed, period, but his rhythm did. And I can easily see Clay landing a big shot in this fight. Best case scenario; Guida makes this fight look like the Tyson Griffin bout, minimizing Tavares’ big moments with lots of little ones. Guida has always suffered when he can’t put his opponent on his back. He will suffer here, but I think his striking will (much as it shocks me to say it) be the difference.
Featherweight Kevin Souza vs. Chas Skelly
It’s Skelly’s smashmouth wrestling versus Souza’s panzerschreck boxing. Like a lot of fights on this undercard, there aren’t lopsided matchups; just lopsided style differentials. Either one guy doesn’t know what rubber guard is, or the other’s only seen a boxing ring when it stars Sylvester Stallone.
Souza has some serious speed, and pop, moving much quicker than his age would determine under most circumstances. He scored a swift knockout over Katsunori Kikuno in March. However, Skelly has faced the tougher competition, and should be able to grind down Souza in close quarters. He’s not gonna stand at range, or leave his head unprotected the way Kikuno gleefully did.
Welterweight Viscardi Andrade vs. Gasan Umalatov
Kind of an interesting matchup. Both guys are international products with tough dance cards since coming into the UFC. What I like about this matchup is that somebody will have to adjust their gameplan at some point in strategically dramatic fashion.
Andrade isn’t a striker by trade. In fact, he’s a little passive. But in close, he’ll wing left and right hands somewhat wildly, though coherently. Umalatov is a much sharper on the feet; throwing crisp punches to get inside for trip takedowns into top control. His left hook in particular is the punch Andrade better be looking for. Umalatov seems like the obvious pick, but Andrade is aggressive enough on the ground that he can sort of just bludgeon his way into mount if Gasan isn’t careful.
Bantamweight Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera
Rivera has a ton of experience despite being so young. He picked up the biggest win of his career when he TKO’ed Marcus Brimage. Somehow he’s not the favorite in what I think is the best fight on this undercard.
Munhoz is coming off a testosterone inspired ban from the athletic commission. He’s a solid fighter; capable of two way pressure, stringing patient and varied combinations on the feet, and is diligent on the ground. Only problem is that he lacks power (perhaps explaining the steroid bust). Rivera isn’t a big puncher either, but he’s developed it enough over recent years to at least threaten with more than just one punch every now and then. Much of this newfound efficiency stems from a jab he throws crisply. It’s a tough fight for Rivera, but I think he’ll eek out a hard fought decision over a talented veteran still looking to make a name for himself.
Flyweight Bruno Rodrigues vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira
I keep saying this, but another fun little fight. Bruno ‘Korea’ is fun to watch. Especially when he’s throwing Scott Adkins level kicks, like so (at 2:31):
He’s a very raw talent though. Despite the theatrics on the feet, he leaves himself open, and doesn’t box very well either in the pocket or at range. Thankfully his ground work is quite solid, which is an amusing wrinkle to what looks like an ironed out high wire act on the feet.
He’s fighting the 22 year old Pereira is a lot more experienced, and will have a massive edge on the feet at range. As you can see, Pereira keeps a tight guard that belies his offensive intentions. His right hand is well chambered to counter or pressure, and his leg kicks are absolutely blazing:
If you can get passed the aggressive incompetence of the ref if not stopping this one after the 50th unanswered punch, you’ll see that Pereira, like his opponent, also has trouble preventing punch in the face chances from his opponents.
Korea will land his spinning back kicks, but he’s gonna get lit up if he hasn’t developed his defense. The difference between both men is that Matheus’ punches don’t have to travel as far as he gets them in quick, and incorporates more than just eccentricities into his kickboxing weaponry.
Predictions
Tibau by Decision
Case by Decision
Guida by TKO, round 3
Skelly by RNC, round 3
Umalatov by Decision
Rivera by Decision
Pereira by TKO, round 2