The recent announcement of Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm at UFC 195 has been met with several different reactions. The first is that Holly Holm does not have enough experience and that Miesha Tate deserved the trilogy fight. The other side argues that Holm is at least a fresh face who is somewhat more marketable.
There is also the side that it doesn’t matter what’s fair and who faces Rousey. Which ever fighter she faces will be a big underdog and will most likely lose in less than impressive fashion.
For the sake of argument, let’s not consider the third side and stick with imagining the Women’s Bantamweight division as an ultra-competitive division full of worthy fighters. Rousey has cleaned out most of the division, but she needs to fight someone, so there must be someone who is more worthy than the rest.
Looking at a record can be deceiving way to go above finding a suitable opponent. Holly Holm is a perfect 9-0 but is far from proving herself as a top five fighter. On the other side, Miesha Tate has five career losses, all against the best fighters in the division.
A great way of sorting out who is the best of the best is by seeing who has beaten the better fighters. Here is a graphic displaying each fighter’s record against the others in the Top 10. Fights displayed are from 2011-2015, with the most recent fight between two fighters being used.
The first notable thing about this graphic is that Holm is the only fighter who has not faced a fighter in the top 10. This is by far the biggest reason for why many see Holm as undeserving of the title shot. Fighters like Liz Carmouche, Bethe Correia, Sara McMann and Jessica Eye are all out of contention as they have yet to earn a win against a top 10 fighter as well.
This leaves us with the top five fighters of the Women’s Bantamweight division. Out of the these five fighters, Sarah Kaufman, Alexis Davis, Cat Zingano and Miesha Tate have all fought and lost to Rousey. This doesn’t automatically eliminate a fighter from contention, but having a loss within the past two years against the champion does, meaning Zingano and Davis are eliminated.
This leaves us with Tate, Nunes and Kaufman as possible opponents. Kaufman lost her most recent fight, and a fighter coming off of a loss doesn’t deserve a title shot. This leaves us with the two most deserving fighters of a title shot, Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes.
Tate was the front runner for the title shot after an impressive win over Jessica Eye at UFC on Fox 16. This marked Tate’s fourth win in a row and the third against top 10 competition since her last loss against Rousey.
The argument for Nunes is just as solid. She has back to back first round stoppage wins and has the second quickest winning time in the division at 3:16 (1st being Rousey at 2:16).
Both fighters lost fights against Cat Zingano in which they controlled the beginning of the fight to only be stopped in the 3rd round. The best argument for Nunes is that she has yet to face Rousey, while Tate has had two chances. The best argument for Tate is that she has beaten three top 10 opponents while Nunes has only beaten one.
Holly Holm presents an interesting challenge for Rousey stylistically and can be promoted as an undefeated, world-class striker. Sometimes, or a lot of the time, the UFC does not go with the most deserving fighter but the most marketable. It seems like Holm getting the shot over both Tate and Nunes is just another one of those times.