Yesterday the UFC announced that the much anticipated fight between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor would take place at UFC 194 on December 12th, 2015. It was also announced that Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate will not be on the same card, but instead will most likely take place at UFC 195.
No date has been announced for the PPV, but if it does manage to sneak into the last weekend of 2015, this year could go down as the most successful in UFC history. This is coming off of what many consider to be the least successful year in the modern era of the UFC. 2014 saw cancelled fight cards, injuries delaying big fights and record low PPV numbers.
This graph shows the first 10 PPVs of the year for both 2014 and 2015. At this time last year, the UFC’s biggest PPV had been UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida with 545,000 buys. In 2015, there have been five PPV events that have passed that mark, with the most successful being the recent UFC 190 event that sold 900,000.
Since 2010 the UFC has seen a gradual decline in PPV buys. Even though there are at least four more PPV events this year, the UFC has already sold more total PPVs this year than in 2014 and will most likely pass the totals of 2013 and 2012.
The average PPV buy rate for 2015 is well ahead of the past four years at 518,500 buys. If the next four PPV events average a buy rate of 325,000, then 2015 will have more total PPV buys than 2011. This feat is one that is very manageable, especially considering that UFC 194 will likely garner close to 1 million buys.
If the UFC really wanted to shoot for the stars, they would want to try and challenge their PPV buys from the most successful year in UFC history, 2010. In that year the UFC had two PPVs that sold over 1 million buys, with another reaching 900,000.
The UFC would need to put on four very successful PPVs in the last quarter of the year to catch up to 2010. In order to pass 2010’s total PPV buys, the UFC will need an average buy rate of 925,000 for their last four PPVs.
2010 does have the advantage of having an extra PPV event, so if we want to compare on a per event basis, the UFC would need an average buy rate of 775,000 on the last four events to pass 2010’s average.
This number is very unlikely due to the fact that two of the four PPV events feature headliners that are not known for their drawing power. Demetrious Johnson headlines UFC 191 and is notorious for PPV events that sell under 200,000 buys. UFC 193 will see a title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit, both amazingly entertaining fighters, but neither with enough mainstream appeal to sell 700,000 PPVs.
The fact alone that 2015 has a chance to be the most successful PPV year since 2010 is a good sign that the sport is beginning its next phase of growth. The UFC seemed to be on the ropes when they lost their high profile stars in Georges St. Pierre, Brock Lesnar, Anderson Silva, Chael Sonnen and Jon Jones. Now it looks as though a new generation of stars have emerged with Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor leading the pack.
(All PPV numbers were reported by Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter)