The prediction of four-time defending national champion Penn State finishing 8th at the 2015 NCAA tournament is largely influenced by various whispers about who won’t be in PSU’s lineup. These whispers still swirl in wrestling’s rumor mill, unsettled by substantiation or refutation.
One thing you learn following college wrestling long enough is that where there’s smoke, there’s fire; rumors almost always contain kernel of truth, and often a bit more. This is likely due to the fact that all wrestling coaches, on all levels, are only separated by a few acquaintances, and wrestling coaches are fond of gossiping. And by fond, I mean they f—— love it. Trying to keep a secret in wrestling is like trying to conceal a fart in an elevator full of bloodhounds.
Though Penn State has done an admirable job of holding their cards close to their vest, one of the most plausible rumors floating out of Happy Valley is that Andrew and Dylan Alton, once the bluest of blue chip recruits and the projected starters at 149 and 157, have finally succumbed to their chronic injury issues, and are done wrestling.
If this is true, then I wouldn’t be terribly surprised. Both of the Alton Twins have had health issues in past seasons, and last year wrestled like shadows of themselves when they did take the mat.
The second rumor is that superstars at 125 and 141, Niko Megaludis and Zain Retherford, will both take a red shirt and defer their eligibility for this season. I think this is very likely in the case of Megaludis, as he has an extremely capable understudy in Jordan Conaway, and would benefit from the graduation of both Jesse Delgado and Alan Waters (yes, I am aware he is more than capable of beating both, but I know I wouldn’t want them in my weight class at nationals).
Rumors also suggest that that Megaludis will not only take a conventional red shirt this year, but also an Olympic red shirt next year. Conaway, after all, has two years of eligibility left, and Megaludis is a hopeful for Rio.
I’m sure that someone on the Penn State staff has crunched the numbers revealing that Penn State stands little chance at a national title without strong performances from both of the Alton twins, and essentially no chance with neither of them. Assuming that at least one of the twins is out, and this is a likely assumption, then head coach Cael Sanderson must have Zain Retherford wrestle just to guarantee a place in the nation’s top ten. For this reason, I would guess that Retherford will not red shirt.
I don’t like this idea. Sanderson has three super recruits in Nick Nevils, Bo Nickal and Jason Nolf waiting for their big reveal next year, and one crappy season might be worth a couple more years of consecutive national titles. I know Coach Sanderson is competitive to the point of near lunacy, and his track record vouches for this, but I he accepts the fact that sometimes in the current landscape of college wrestling you need an occasional down year in order to have 3 or 4 great ones.
The tentative lineup:
If Penn State has no Altons, their lineup will probably look like this.
125: Jordan Conaway
133: Jimmy Gulibon
141: Zain Retherford
149: Zack Beitz
157: Cody Law
165: Garrett Hammond
174: Matt Brown
184: Matt McCutcheon
197: Morgan McIntosh
285: Jon Gingrich/Jimmy Lawson
Points Breakdown
First, we should keep in mind that Penn State lost what was essentially 50 automatic team points with the graduation of David Taylor and Ed Ruth. They are replacing that with Hammond and McCutcheon, the latter of which will probably score some, but not many, points at NCAAs; let’s put him down for 5.
With his almost impossible consistency for someone so young, Retherford should make the consolation finals again, earning the team around 15 team points. Menawhile, I expect the team’s two lightest starters, Gulibon and Conaway, to both make the round of twelve with one slipping through to All-American status. So as a couple, the 125 and 133 pound weights should earn Penn State around 16 points.
Ever-dependable 174 pound standout Matt Brown should make the national podium for the third straight time. While the Utah native is a previous finalist and legitimate title threat, I think he is more likely to finish in 3rd place, contributing around 16 points to his team’s cause. Two weights higher than Brown, returning All American Morgan McIntosh should place again and snag ten team points himself.
Finally, Beitz at 149, and whomever Penn State sends out at 285, should both make at least the round of 16 at nationals, and possibly beyond. Conservatively, I’d say those two will bring in about 10 team points for the Nittany Lions.
Without either Alton brother, I see Penn State scoring around 70 points at the NCAA tournament, which is scary. If the Altons do wind up returning in good form and motivated, a fifth straight national title is not out of the question.