Alistair Overeem vs. Ben Rothwell Heavyweight
TRT Wars! Overeem (who was on TRT and failed a test), fresh from his victory over Frank Mir (who was on TRT and didn’t fail a test), takes on Big Ben Rothwell (who was on TRT and failed a test). God damn. It really has been ridiculous, hasn’t it?
I’m pretty sure Rothwell at +435 is one of the greatest moneymakers ever. He’s a tough kid who can take a beating, and dish one out. Is there any reason to think Rothwell can’t make Overeem do the Schaub flipped turtle ghostcatcher dance?
Phil: Of all the divisions to try and get an opponent with the Homer Simpson Special (lit: get beaten up, and then KO them once they’re tired), heavyweight may be the worst. Fundamentally speaking, there is just no-one who can reliably withstand a beating from a 240+ pound athlete like Overeem unscathed. Chins are also not necessarily the walls that people think they are: getting beaten up fundamentally tires you out. Unless Overeem completely blows his wad, he should keep the fight well in hand.
I also don’t think that Overeem’s comeback losses to Browne and Silva should necessarily be overstated. There were certainly gaps in technique and athletic ability between Overeem and Silva/Browne, but Silva is an underrated, oft-maligned heavyweight technician, and Browne is just a physical freak. There aren’t so much gaps between Rothwell and Overeem as there are enormous, Grand Canyon-esque chasms in pretty much every single phase of mixed martial arts. Striking? Wrestling? Submission grappling? God help us… the clinch? Overeem’s defensive failings are always present, but if he can’t avoid them with the deck this severely stacked in his favor, then he is clearly done. Harsh, but there it is.
David: Good points. His UFC losses have what you might call “faux-asterisks” by them, which is to say, none at all. It’s just a way of saying ‘well he was winning…until he lost’. But you’re right in that I think people want to extrapolate too much from those losses.
However, there’s some clear justification. As in, those losses play into the narrative that has followed him his entire career. I think Overeem understands his status though. He’s an intelligent guy, and knows that Dana will be looking to cut him if he loses, but he also gets that winning is still the ultimate currency. I’m expecting the Overeem that fought Mir, pacing himself at every checkpoint.
Is there anything Overeem can really offer HW long term? His ability to take punchers, and effectively deal with pressure won’t get better with age. Is there a solution?
Phil: I think Overeem showed us what he could offer when he fought Frank Mir last time out. Some were critical of the fact that he decisioned the notoriously fragile submission artist instead of putting him away, but I think it actually showed a veteran’s cunning. He exploded for short bursts of offense, and used his overlooked takedown game to get top position and regain some energy while staying in the lead. It was markedly similar to the approach used by another explosively muscled striker when Hector Lombard defeated Jake Shields.
In addition, Overeem is training with Jackson and Winklejohn, and while they’re a camp with documented issues with regards to putting out technically sound strikers, they are absolutely great at two phases which he’s always struggled with: cardio and game-planning. Jackson’s truly shines as a finishing school for mixed martial artists looking to put the final polish on their game, and it should have clear benefits for Overeem. Even discounting all the weird, smiling-through-gritted-teeth, “we’re best buds even though he put our cash cow out of commission and got us in trouble with the UFC again” social media stuff we’ve seen lately.
Will he ever beat Cain Velasquez or Junior Dos Santos? I sincerely doubt it. But I think he can make his way to a title shot.
David: I don’t ever hold it against fighters how they fight. Yes, if they fight a boring fight I will be more than happy to avoid watching it ever again, but a winning fighter efficiently implementing a strategy is just that: a winning fighter efficiently implementing a strategy. Like I said about Nik Lentz, I want to see fighters beat at their best and smartest. Not while they’re fighting like a 19 year old who was just dared to drink a whole bottle of wasabi oil.
Rothwell isn’t perfect either, so how could Overeem conceivably avoid waking up to a giant screaming at his half-conscious crumpled body?
Phil: Again, Overeem’s main problem has simply been apportioning his gas tank. Fighting incredibly conservatively and basically just stopping takedowns against Werdum, he was exhausted by the end of the fight, and only scraped a split decision. Fighting at medium pace against Silva, he was done after two rounds. Going all-out against Browne exhausted him within about two minutes. He just needs to be precisely aware of how much he has left. Can he attempt to finish Rothwell? How much should he put into it? These are the questions that he absolutely needs to be aware of at all times, because once he’s running on fumes, he’s the punching bag to end all punching bags.
The other thing he needs to worry about is being hypnotized by Rothwell’s deadly newfound head movement. This was partway between something you might see in a Midwest bar when a trucker in his cups hears his favorite Rihanna song and makes the ill-advised decision to strut his funky stuff, and partway between what you’d see when said trucker kept on drinking and getting rowdy and got tazed in the parking lot a few hours later.
It was genuinely frightening, and I do not blame Vera for being paralyzed at all.
David: Oh man, I had forgotten his last win was against Vera. See, this is what happens when you’re fed information against your will, Ludovico style. Past, present, and future gets blended together in a cocktail of Rogan spasms, and Goldbergian wisdom.
I actually kind of miss Brandon Vera. He was always a candid guy, who just said a few things that ended looking silly in retrospect. Not the most exciting fighter, but we always enjoyed talking about him.
Anyway, I think Overeem is actually the perfect storm for criticism against the idea that he “cracks under pressure”. Not only is his gas tank suspect, but his defense is the first thing that begins to wither, and he doesn’t have the chin to keep up with his opponent’s rapid workrate once they suspect the end is nigh.
This is a genuinely baffling fight to predict. For as much criticism as we throw Overeem’s way, Rothwell is prone to similar lapses in judgment. For one, the Rothwell that fought Gilbert Yvel would get absolutely pasted by Overeem. In addition, Overeem will take advantage of one of Ben’s weaknesses: his takedown defense. I sometimes wonder what kind of fighter Overeem might be if he was strictly a grappler. He has the chops to get takedowns, and snatch submissions. And he’s absolutely brutal in the clinch. I don’t know if it would make him a better fighter per se, but I do think there are certain matchups he can win with a different approach. Something about the nature of kickboxing in principle leaves him exhausted, and winded. Just a pointless thought.
Prognostications, por favor!
Phil’s pick: I’m going to take a flyer: I actually think Overeem’s long-dormant sub game makes a return here. Rothwell has both porous takedown defense and a tendency to give up position on the mat. Alistair Overeem by submission, round 1.
David’s pick: I think the submission game sets up some scrambling that turns into vicious ground and pound. Alistair Overeem by TKO, round 2.