Likely Cut With a Loss
Lorenz Larkin (14-3-1NC, 1-3 UFC) – Larkin can be great fun to watch, and his promotional debut against Francis Carmont was spoiled by a poorly conceived judges’ verdict, but the fact remains that he’s up for a third straight loss, and I doubt his UFC career could bear it.
Yancy Medeiros (9-2-1NC, 0-2-1NC UFC) – His UFC campaign has been something of a mess, and he almost certainly needs a win here to secure his spot on the roster.
Possibly Cut With a Loss
Anthony Hamilton (12-3, 0-1 UFC), Ruan Potts (8-2, 0-1 UFC) – Both were finished in their debuts (Hamilton by neck crank, which is especially bad in this day and age), but the old refrain remains relevant: heavyweight is thin, and there are a lot of events to fill out.
Scott Jorgensen (15-9, 4-5 UFC) – Jorgensen’s career took a distinct downward turn in 2012. He’s 2-5 since then and hasn’t been anybody above the bottom rung in three, arguable four, years. Still, he tends to have an entertaining style, and after notching his first win at flyweight in June, he may get another fight despite a loss to a prospect like Cejudo.
Derek Brunson (11-3, 2-1 UFC) – Brunson’s UFC debut was one of the most reviled fights of the year, due in part to what many felt was his unjustifiably exultant post-fight celebration. A tidy submission win his next time out helped make things right but the fact remains: Brunson’s only two wins are a torpid unanimous decision victory over a faded veteran and a submission win over an inexperienced UFC neophyte, neither of whom are with the UFC anymore. Now he’s rebounding from a throttling by Yoel Romero. Depending on how he looks this Saturday, the UFC may not be willing to overlook a second consecutive loss.
Shayna Baszler (15-8) – Technically, Baszler is making her debut, which ought to warrant a bit of breathing room, and that she’s friends and training partners with Ronda Rousey doesn’t hurt, either. Yet, it’s probably that relationship with Rousey that got her this spot in the first place, as Baszler lost in the TUF quarterfinals, which would normally mean no official UFC debut at all. Add to that the fact that she’s 34 and has already had a lengthy career, and I’m not certain that the UFC would be interested in keeping her for a rebound fight.
Likely Safe Regardless of Outcome
Damon Jackson (9-0), Henry Cejudo (6-0), Joe Soto (15-2), Anthony Birchak (11-1), Cain Carrizosa (6-0), Chris Wade (7-1) – Cheers to Joe Soto, who fought back from a career-threatening eye injury and an untimely upset loss in his return bout and made it to the UFC.
Ramsey Nijem (9-4, 5-3 UFC) – His record may be a little underwhelming, but the TUF runner-up has won two straight and scored a TKO finish in his last outing. He’s definitely earned himself another shot, regardless.
Bethe Correia (8-0 2-0 UFC), Carlos Diego Ferreira (10-0, 1-0 UFC) – Both have made undefeated starts to their UFC careers, with Correia making a prodigious climb up the women’s bantamweight rankings (thanks in part to a still-developing division).
T.J. Dillashaw (10-2, 6-2 UFC), Renan Barao (32-2-1NC, 7-1 UFC), Danny Castillo (17-6, 7-3 UFC), Tony Ferguson (15-3, 5-1 UFC) – Fun fact: as of last December, Danny Castillo’s UFC career had, by number of fights, surpassed the length of his WEC career.
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