You’re still here
Um. Indeed. David asked me to help out with this one, too.
Get on with it, then. Tell me the stakes.
Benson Henderson is, depending on who you ask, either a fluke merchant or one of the very best lightweight mixed martial artists ever. The former lightweight champion’s reign was one of the longest in history… but it largely consisted of extremely close decisions. This kind of thing does not go down well with either live audiences or the UFC brass. Therefore, when he lost his belt to Anthony Pettis (the second time he had been defeated by “Showtime”), it left him in the unenviable position of being considered one of the best fighters in the division, but one who is incredibly unlikely to get a shot at its champion any time soon. 155 is deep enough that the UFC doesn’t have to be worried about killing off potential contenders, but there’s still a perception that Henderson is fighting those on the fringe: the fighters where a loss to them drops him badly, but a win keeps him in place. Enter Rafael Dos Anjos.
Dos Anjos has always been a dark horse in the lightweight division. He entered into the UFC on the strength of his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu pedigree, as a strong if limited grappler. He would have runs of success, but would always hit an unfortunate speedbump just when it seemed like he could break through. Ahead on the cards against Jeremy Stephens, he ran into the uppercut from hell (seriously, look it up if you’ve never watched it) and was knocked out. His jaw was broken by Clay Guida, a man never known for his punching power. He lost a close decision to fellow dark horse Gleison Tibau. His big breakthrough was his win over Donald Cerrone, but even this has been unfairly qualified as “just a bad night” for the Cowboy, and it was followed by his first truly dominating loss, a one-sided blowout to rising star Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s gotten back in the winning column since then, with a knockout over Jason High.
So both of these men can be considered fringe contenders who are struggling to overcome the stigma of recent losses. However, the path to the belt remains open: with Pettis on the shelf, it’s certainly possible for either fighter to distinguish himself enough to move back into the upper echelons of contention. The stakes are therefore pretty high, but with one caveat: whoever wins has to be impressive. If not, it will just be seen as treading water.
Unfortunately for both men, an impressive and dominating win is not likely to happen. Each man finds himself facing a tough, well-rounded, and strategically-minded foe.
Weapons?
I’m going to trying to stop using the word “underrated” when referring to Dos Anjos, no matter how accurate it might be. Although he came into the UFC as a grappler, he’s slowly and steadily blossomed under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro- in some ways, his more winding path through the UFC has allowed him to polish and round out his game. His grappling abilities are now compounded by solid wrestling, both offensive and defensive. The primitive striking of his early career has been replaced by rugged and varied kickboxing, where he kicks to the body and head, and his hans have branched out from typical one-shot headhunting to dangerous upstairs-downstairs combination punching.
All this supports the image of a cerebral workhorse of a fighter- he and his camp picked the elements of his game which they needed to work on, and they have steadily built him up into a dangerous, multifaceted threat. His fight with Donald Cerrone was arguably his best performance, and a superb synthesis of ability and strategy- where Dos Anjos normally strikes as a mid-range kickboxer, he clearly recognized that this was also where Cerrone was more experienced and comfortable, and closed the gap with uncharacteristic speed. He kept the Jackson’s product off-balance and on his heels for the first two rounds and sealed up the decision win. Here, then, is a man who is clearly focused around the tangibles of the fight game: Strategy. Technique.
Benson Henderson is a physical force, an athletic specimen. However, it’s much harder to quantify what he is actually good at in the cage- he can hit hard with his hands, has an array of dangerous kicks, and yet never lands knockouts (and rarely hits knockdowns) with either. His wrestling for MMA is good -if not great- yet it is complemented by a tricky and brutal clinch game and array of choke submissions.
If there’s something which makes Bendo a real threat, it’s his understanding of the intangibles of the fight: Rhythm and mentality. As others such as my colleague Connor have pointed out, Henderson does an excellent job of selling the fight, convincing those present that he is just completely unimpressed with everything his opponent is doing. He shrugs his shoulders, flips his hair, and simply looks vaguely irritated by any offense they offer, from strikes to submissions. This doesn’t just convince judges. It convinces opponents, as well. Rustam Khabilov put up an unexpectedly strong showing against the former champion, and was up on most cards, yet it was hard to shake the idea that he just wasn’t as convinced that he was winning as everyone watching was. As his attacks dwindled, Henderson backed him up into the cage, hit him with the “MMA Lab Uppercut-Cross Special”, and choked him out.
Henderson can change his rhythm in the blink of an eye from lackadaisical circling into furious flurries of attacks, often from strange angles, unexpected areas. He assaulted Anthony Pettis’ ankles with kicks from the clinch, punched Nate Diaz in the thigh to set up a knockdown, threw a kick that looked more like a breakdancing move at Frank Edgar when standing up from a takedown. This is not merely eye-catching for the judges, but confusing and mentally (and even physically) damaging to the opponent. “What the hell did he just hit me with?” If they decide to ignore this strange unorthodoxy and simply pressure him, then Henderson has at least one powerful, reliable weapon waiting for an over-aggressive opponent- his guillotine, which disposed of Donald Cerrone and Jamie Varner.
Weaknesses?
Henderson’s weakness is that he relies on his rhythm keeping the opponent off-guard. If they stay composed, then the gears in which he fights can both be exploited. When he is fighting off the back foot, circling and body-kicking, he can be too passive. Conversely, his aggressive flurries are often wild, and can be countered by a cool-headed foe.
Dos Anjos seems able to exploit this kind of advantage- he is the kind of disciplined tactician who will attempt to prepare for Henderson’s shifts in momentum, and who can contest and even beat the ex-champion at kickboxing range with his more sound and well-developed game. However, his own weakness also comes to the fore: pressure. It is debatably a common factor with Cordeiro fighters that they are better offensively than they are defensively- throwing combinations intelligently, but often too static on the defensive end. Against Cerrone, Dos Anjos made sure to seize the initiative, but in fights with Tibau and Nurmagomedov he suffered when they closed distance into boxing range or the clinch, and disabled parts or all of his combination kickboxing.
So what does it all mean?
I think we’re in for a fun one. Not necessarily fireworks, but an entertaining technical and strategic fight between two cunning and clever contenders.
However, if I had to pick one to win, it would be Henderson. I believe Dos Anjos’ camp will come in with a solid gameplan for the ex-champion, and RDA may be able to pick up on the early going, but over the course of 25 minutes this fight will illustrate the difference between a well-trained and well-prepared fighter such as Dos Anjos, and a more adaptive and subtle combatant like Henderson. Reductively: Dos Anjos almost certainly knows that he should take the advantage, but Henderson, inside the confines of the cage, simply has a deeper and more instinctive understanding of how to take the advantage.
X-factors?
If he’s a wild striker, then Benson can be an even wilder grappler. Dos Anjos’ submission grappling background should not be overlooked- Henderson has a tendency to get caught in submissions (albeit with a freakish ability to fight out of them), and to give up his back. He has lost rounds and fights to these weaknesses before.
Dos Anjos has a metal jaw. Seriously. He has four titanium plates in there, and two opponents have broken their hands on it. Even if Henderson connects on his wild flurries, he might end up hurting himself more than Dos Anjos.
Prognostication?
Benson Henderson by unanimous decision.