I remember back in the day when I’d have to eagerly wait for a whole month to be able to bet on UFC events. Now it feels weird when a weekend goes by without one, especially since I had my first winning event of the year at UFC on Fuel 8. They’re back in style this weekend though and UFC 158 should be pretty damn good. But how does it look from a betting perspective? Well, I have my doubts. First, take a look at all the latest lines for the card (via BestFightOdds):
Where to start, where to start. Well, the main event fight between Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz is totally pointless to bet on, and I’ll be dodging the co-main too. I’d lean towards Johny Hendricks in that fight, but I have great trouble betting against a guy with Carlos Condit’s skills and resiliency. In fact, I don’t really dig betting on any of the main card fights other than maybe taking a flier on Nate Marquardt in the +150 range.
The undercard has a couple nice options though. The first is Dan Miller. When the lines first opened, Miller was in the +200 range and I tweeted that he was a good bet then. He’s now at +263, which is utterly insane. I’m a big fan of Jordan Mein and all that, but Miller still has a solid game and he’s a big welterweight. I think that fight should be close to even, and getting that kind of price is amazing.
The only other thing I see that is probably worth it is Patrick Cote in the -170 range. Bobby Voelker hasn’t fought in almost two years and has never faced anyone like Cote before. As long as Cote can handle the cut, he should be able to handle the fight in his hometown. Reuben Duran might be worth a small bet as well, since George Roop is going to look like a stick man at bantamweight.
Recommended plays:
.25 unit on Marquardt at +148
.75 unit on Miller at +263
.75 unit on Cote at -172
.5 unit on Duran at -127
Last event: UFC on Fuel 8: 2-1, +.94 unit
2013 standings: 6-12, -5.01 units
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