Welcome to another edition of “Tim isn’t so good at this betting stuff sometimes”. I’m your host TIm B, I’m going to attempt to let you know who you should consider bet on in terms of this weekend’s UFC on Fox 6 card. My big Wagner Prado recommendation at UFC on FX 7 was a big pile of poopy (but a bad reffing decision helped Pepey get some of my money back!), so let’s see if I can get things back on the right track this week, shall we?
First off, let’s look at the odds in one snappy little widget, courtesy of BestFightOdds:
So, where to start. Well, I’ve changed my mind over the last few weeks in regards to the main event. I originally said that John Dodson was a solid bet at +190, but I don’t think so anymore. That being said, I don’t really think Demetrious Johnson at -200 or more is worth betting on either. So I’ll be staying away from the flyweight title fight.
Clearly these odds aren’t in order, because I was trying to figure out how T.J. Grant vs. Matt Wiman got promoted to the co-main (don’t bet on that fight by the way, it’s too close). Next, I picked Erik Koch in the predictions, but Ricardo Lamas at +140 isn’t the worst bet ever. And finally, I wouldn’t touch Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis.
So, what’s good outside of those? Well I’ll probably get teased for this, but I think Quinton Jackson is the best bet on the card. Anything above +250 is an amazingly good deal to me. I explained my thought process in the predictions post, but basically I think Rampage is going to land a counter shot and knock Glover out. Should you follow my advice and bet on him? Well, that’s up to you. But if you don’t, you’re a girl. And if you’re a girl already, well… think you’re a beautiful flower and thank you for reading. Please don’t email Nate about this.
If you are going to be a wee baby though, and you want some other lower-risk bets that should come through, I’d look at Mike Russow in the -180 range and Pascal Krauss around -220.
Recommended plays:
.75 unit on Rampage at +290
.75 unit on Russow at -180
1 unit on Krauss at -220
Last event/2013 standings: 1-1, -.54 units
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