While the focus is on UFC 142 this weekend, the betting line for next weekend’s UFC on FX 1 main event between Jim Miller and Melvin Guillard dropped his week, and Miller is the betting favorite. Bookmaker opened the line on Tuesday, and it hasn’t moved at all as of yet. Here’s what it looks like:
Guillard is coming off the surprising loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136, while Miller is coming off a decision loss to Ben Henderson at UFC on Versus 5. Both had been on long winning streaks before their recent loss. In terms of the line, I believe this is about right. The fact that the bout is a three-round fight doesn’t seem to make much of a difference, though Miller would probably have an advantage if it went five. Miller holds advantages in enough areas (wrestling, cardio, chin) to deserve the favorable line. But I’m sure that many people see value in Guillard, and I think the line will push down into the -160/+130 range around fight time.
Basically, if you want the best price on Melvin Guillard, get on it now.
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