In the main event of the evening, current Strikeforce welterweight champion Nick Diaz (24-7-0-1) eyes his third title defense as he battles heavy-handed UFC veteran Paul Daley (27-9-2). Diaz won the strap back in January of last year with a dominant performance over DREAM champion Marius Zaromskis. After a brief trip to Japan to fight Hayato ‘Mach’ Sakurai in May, Diaz returned to defend his belt for the first time against nemesis K.J. Noons. The former professional boxer had previously defeated Diaz under the EliteXC banner three years before, but came up short in the rematch, losing on the scorecards.
Diaz returned a little over three months later to battle Evangelista ‘Cyborg’ Santos in what was perceived as a squash match. Santos was surprisingly competitive, hammering Diaz with leg kicks and powerful punches. Unfortunately, Diaz’s iron chin, endless stamina, and peppering boxing skills overwhelmed Santos as the fight progressed, allowing Diaz to finish via armbar at the 4:50 mark of the second round.
With nine consecutive wins against solid competition, Diaz is considered one of the very best in the welterweight division. The UFC’s acquisition of Strikeforce has created an enormous buzz around him, potentially allowing him to finally go where Dana White and many of his loudest fans have suggested — the UFC’s welterweight ranks. But before he can make the transition, Diaz must prove he can defeat Paul Daley, a fighter who possesses all the skills to take advantage of Diaz’s weaknesses.
Most fans recall Paul Daley’s exit from the UFC. Following the final bell at UFC 113, Daley sucker punched Josh Koscheck. The poor judgment call cost Daley his UFC contract despite being a 2-1 fighter under the promotion’s banner along with being one of the most exciting welterweights on the roster. Daley scoured the regional scene for bouts, defeating Daniel Acacio in Sydney, Australia in July and edging out Jorge Masvidal on the scorecards in September in Texas.
Roughly a week after the win over Masvidal, Daley signed with Strikeforce. In his debut, Daley brutally crushed Scott Smith in a knockout of the year performance. He followed the performance with a risky stint under BAMMA’s banner in England, taking on Yuya Shirai under the terms that if he won — he’d earn a shot at Nick Diaz. Daley delivered, unleashing a flurry of shots that Shirai couldn’t overcome.
Daley’s incredible striking power, solid Muay Thai base, and improving takedown defense combine to create a tough task for Nick Diaz. While Diaz is perceived as an immortal who possesses an invincible chin, an endless gas tank, and a constant supply of punches, his weaknesses play heavily into Daley’s strengths. Diaz does not possess great takedowns. In fact, it may be one of his worst attributes as a fighter, utilizing a weak clinch game to try to dump his opponents. The perception that Daley’s takedown defense is terrible is a tired argument, mostly coming from fans who haven’t watched Daley progress. Daley has the strength to take advantage of those weaknesses and avoid the ground game, at least in the early rounds.
Furthermore, Diaz isn’t a genius stand-up fighter. He tends to rely on his toughness and durability to get him through any adversity he meets inside the cage. And by toughness, I mean, he relies heavily on his chin to keep him conscious. Unfortunately, Paul Daley might be the most powerful puncher in the division, housing the ability to flip the light switch on an opponent’s consciousness in a heartbeat. That won’t bode well for a gameplan that focuses solely on Diaz relying on head movement and peppering counter-striking while he stands toe-to-toe with Daley.
On the other end of the table, Diaz has all of the other categories on lock down. He’s a far superior grappler, a highly-conditioned athlete, and a flat out winner. His boxing is far more technical than most of the competition in the division, and he’s likely the better combination thrower in this contest. If Daley can’t finish this fight inside the first two rounds, Nick Diaz wins this fight in the later rounds. It’s difficult to believe Daley can limp his way to the scorecards against a guy who runs triathlons regularly.
I’ve been flip-flopping in my thoughts on how this fight will go down since the predictions were posted here at BloodyElbow.com. My initial prediction was set on Daley defeating Diaz, mainly due to Daley’s striking prowess and speed. Diaz is rather lackadaisical in his approach, and Daley could take full advantage quickly. On the other side of the hat however, Diaz will most assuredly win this fight if it goes past the second round. So, the question becomes whether Daley can make it that far. I’ll risk it. I’ll go with Daley via TKO.