In the main event of the evening at UFC 128, UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (19-4) will attempt to defend his title for the first time as he battles 23-year-old phenom Jon Jones (12-1). After Jones’ teammate Rashad Evans was forced to withdraw from a planned bout with Rua due to a knee injury sustained in training camp, Jones was offered the challenge following his impressive victory over Ryan Bader at UFC 126. Jones accepted, giving him a little over one month to prepare for the biggest fight of his career.
Strangely, the media and fans alike have focused heavily on the accomplishments of Jon Jones in the lead-up to Saturday’s main event. Despite Rua’s status as one of the best 205 lb. fighters to ever grace the ring or cage, Jones has received the star treatment from the media, fans, and the UFC. Oddsmakers are equally impressed by Jones’ feats inside the Octagon, deeming him the favorite over Rua.
The love affair with Jones isn’t without justification however. After wins over Jake O’Brien, Stephan Bonnar, and Andre Gusmao in his first three stints in the UFC, the proof of his potential was ingrained in the minds of every fan watching. Fantastic Greco-Roman throws, an unpredictable, diverse stand-up game, and strength that was nearly unmatched at light heavyweight. Jones proved that he had all the tools to succeed at the highest level. All he needed was a little seasoning.
But Rua has withstood the test of time and proved himself as one of the few PRIDE imports who had a legitimate claim to being the best in the world. Despite a setback in his debut that could be attributed to poor planning on his part, Rua has reclaimed praise from fans with classic performances against Lyoto Machida, a man who many felt was an impenetrable force atop the light heavyweight division.
Stylistically, Jones has the advantage of possessing a tried, tested, and proven skill-set of success in mixed martial arts. Obligations in his personal life put an end to a goal of dominating the wrestling world at its highest levels, but it’s obvious in his performances inside the Octagon that Jones is one of the most effective wrestlers in the UFC. He’s also one of the most unpredictable strikers in the sport, although there is justified criticism that Jones lacks the technical acumen to be a precision striking threat on the feet.
That criticism is the focus of the intrigue surrounding this match-up. Rua proved that he has the speed and power to threaten on the feet against one of the best strikers in the sport in Lyoto Machida. Can Jones avoid Rua’s stand-up game long enough to dominate on the ground? Can Rua escape the clutches of Jones if the fight hits the floor?
The speed that Rua can produce is an interesting topic of discussion in regards to the style match-up. I’m not sold on Jones’ unpredictable stand-up game being a factor, and I’m more prone to believing Rua will take advantage if Jones becomes too wild in his approach on the feet. Rua could make Jones pay quickly if he tries to get too flashy, especially if he’s on point with his speed and power.
But I’m not taking the bait in regards to Rua’s ground credentials. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Rua has the background to escape and reverse Jones’ dominant position from the top, but I’m not banking on it. Jones is far too superior a wrestler on the ground for Rua to trump. And I feel that’s where Rua loses this fight. Unless he can avoid Jones’ strength and improving submissions for the first three rounds, I think he’s at a disadvantage.
Jones is the safe bet to win on Saturday night. He’s an undeniable talent, a strong wrestler, physically gifted athlete, and a name that we’ll be seeing for years and years to come. Rua has all the tools on the feet to stop Jones, but there is concern that his ground game isn’t good enough to stop a wrestler of Jones’ caliber. I lie in that same thinking. I do, however, believe Rua has much better striking skills. If he can somehow avoid Jones’ takedowns and use speed and kicks to damage the lead leg of Jones early, we should all be prepared to eat crow.