Event: Strikeforce World Grand Prix Heavyweight Tournament
Date: Saturday, February 12, 2011, at 10 p.m. ET on Showtime
Location: IZOD Center in East Rutherford, NJ
Main card (Showtime):
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Silva
Kid Nate: Fedor remains too quick for Big Foot. If Mike Kyle could hurt Silva, Fedor will bust him up and has the killer instinct to get the finish. Silva is dangerous, but not dangerous enough. Fedor by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: Fedor isn’t what he once was and even if that’s because he just doesn’t have the desire to train harder or better or whatever, that shouldn’t bee seen as a knock on his legacy. Fedor acheived enough during the PRIDE days to be the clear cut best heavyweight the sport has ever seen and no one is particularly close in the discussion (no one is “just two or three good wins away”). Still, even a somewhat faded Fedor has the skills to give Silva all he can handle and finish him early. Fedor Emelianenko by TKO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: Silva needs to close the distance in order to win this fight. He can’t afford to engage in a striking game from distance. Fedor’s too fast with too good of head movement. But if he can put Fedor up against the fence or on his back, he has the chance to smother his way to victory. I think a lot of people are ignoring signs of physical degradation and — more importantly — an increasing apathy toward training, but I’m still taking Fedor Emelianenko by TKO, round one.
Nick Thomas: As long as Fedor doesn’t get caught on the ground; I have to give Fedor the edge in all areas. Emelianenko by TKO.
Leland Roling: Fans tend to forget that Silva didn’t look even remotely good against Fabricio Werdum, and he was nearly stopped by a much smaller Mike Kyle in his last appearance. Fedor won’t make the mistake of letting him survive, and his speed is going to blaze a trail to victory on Saturday night. Fedor Emelianenko via TKO, Round 2.
Anton Tabuena: Fedor’s age seems to be slowly catching up to him, and I think he’s ripe for the picking. I don’t think it will matter on this fight though, cause even a slightly slowed-down Fedor is still good enough to beat Antonio Silva. Fedor Emelianenko via TKO.
Duane Finley: I’ve been rough on Antonio Silva in the past and while he has surprised me time and time again, I don’t believe the trend will continue. Fedor will answer a lot of questions in this fight and when he throws punches they are hammers. Silva has stated he will have no respect for Fedor inside of the cage but I don’t think he’ll have much time either way. Fedor Emelianenko via TKO 1st round.
Matt Bishop: This is not a good matchup for Silva. Fedor hits hard and throws everything with bad intentions. If Silva gets off to another slow start like he did against Mike Kyle in December, he’s in big trouble. If Silva gets dropped, I don’t see him recovering like he did against Kyle. Fedor Emelianenko via TKO, round 1
Andrei Arlovski vs. Sergei Kharitonov
Kid Nate: I want both of these guys to win but I think Arlovski’s chin and psyche are damaged and Sergei’s back is blown out. I’m going to buck the tide, I think Kharitonov hits too hard for Arlovski. Kharitonov by KO.
Brent Brookhouse: I find it pretty interesting to hear so many people calling a Kharitonov win. Sergei at his best is good but I think Andrei at his best is better. It’s just so hard to know what to expect with both of these guys at this point in their career. I think that Arlovski will be able to use his speed and footwork (which isn’t great but is better than Kharitonov’s) to win two out of the three rounds and avoid getting knocked out. Andrei Arlovski by decision. You know what? Scratch that. Andrei Arlovski by KO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: It’s always disconcerting when I’m filling out my predictions, and the rest of the staff has already hiveminded my pick in a close fight. Resistance is futile, I suppose. Andrei Arlovski by decision.
Nick Thomas: This is a tough fight to pick. But looking at Arlovski’s past fights… it’s Kharitonov by TKO
Leland Roling: Honestly, I’m a bit biased toward Sergei Kharitonov. After getting his leg nearly kicked off by Daniel Ghita in K-1, the man wouldn’t allow himself to be stretchered backstage. Sergei probably told Nogueira to “walk it off” after being hit by a truck. As much as I love his toughness, I’ll buy into the Greg Jackson storyline and hope Mike Winkeljohn has turned on a light bulb in Arlovski’s brain. Speed and footwork should win this for Andrei. Andrei Arlovski via TKO.
Anton Tabuena: Arlovski should take this bout, but we never know what’s going on inside his head these days. I think his biggest opponent would be himself here, and while I still don’t think he’s 100% there mentally, I’m still going to pick the guy who I think has a better overall skillset. Andrei Arlovski by TKO.
Duane Finley: “The Pitbull” has been on a roller coaster since his UFC days and while he should take this opening round bout, he’s going to be his own worst enemy. Kharitonov poses a viable threat if he can get to Arlovksi but I predict Andrei willingly bypasses on his aggressive attack for protecting his chin and playing it relatively safe. Andrei Arlovski via decision.
Matt Bishop: If we’re talking pure athleticism, Arlovski takes this easy. Against Silva in May, Arlovski seemed to lack confidence, but was happy with how he took shots. If that has rejuvenated him, he should win this fight. But all it takes is one hard Kharitonov punch and that famous Arlovski chin could be back in action. I don’t think this is going to be a particularly good fight. Andrei Arlovski by decision.
Shane del Rosario vs. Lavar Johnson
Kid Nate: Johnson is powerful but del Rosario is the much more promising prospect. del Rosario by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: Johnson’s technique is brutally bad. He hits hard but I don’t even think he hits that hard. Shane del Rosario’s status as a “great prospect” is massively overstated, he has flaws that just don’t seem to get better every time out. Still, Johnson’s defense is horrible and unless he lands an early power shot on the button he’s going to get trucked. Shane del Rosario by TKO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: My father bowled and my aunt dated lots of party dudes that owned boats, so I used to see those “Big Johnson” t-shirts all the time as a kid. They seemed to have left the confines of pop culture, but the idea lives on in shirts like “FBI: Female Body Investigator.” And thank god for that, because how else would I be able to tell how douchey a person is without having to talk to them? Lavar Johnson sticks his head out too much…because he carries a big Johnson. Shane del Rosario by TKO, round one.
Nick Thomas: Love this fight. Rosario is very hittable and I think the bigger Johnson can end this early. Johnson by TKO.
Leland Roling: Those who know me… know that I love Shane del Rosario’s chances at becoming a star fighter under the Strikeforce banner. He is deceptively strong in the clinch, and he has the distance striking skills to be a terror in this fight. He wins here by TKO, either by some crushing clinch work or a huge overhand to the kisser. Shane del Rosario via TKO.
Anton Tabuena: Shane Del Rosario is the much better striker and I think he’s going to thoroughly dominate Johnson here… 10-0 and a former muay thai champion – if he keeps on winning and gets marketed properly, this Filipino-American could possibly achieve what Brandon Vera couldn’t. Del Rosario by TKO.
Duane Finley: I know the heavyweight tournament is the reason for the excitement surrounding this card but I’m very excited for this matchup. Del Rosario and Johnson gives us a look at what Strikeforce has on deck and while Johnson has battled back from the gunshot injury, Del Rosario throws wicked knees. I don’t see a lot of time wasted before they get to exchanging and while Lavar Johnson has power, I have Shane making a statement early. Del Rosario via TKO 1st Round.
Matt Bishop: Great fight here. I really like del Rosario and his skills and both these guys have proven over time that they hit hard. Neither has been to a decision in their careers and I don’t see that one changing here. Del Rosario’s the more skilled fighter and that will win out. Shane Del Rosario via TKO, round 1.
Valentijn Overeem vs. Ray Sefo
Kid Nate: These guys are way past their sell-by date. Sefo by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: Boy, this is…a really crappy fight. Ray Sefo by TKO, round two.
Mike Fagan: Yeah, Valentijn Overeem is the guy who couldn’t get out of the first round with Rafal Dabrowski and Nikolai Onikienko last year, right? Right. Ray Sefo by TKO, round one.
Nick Thomas: If Overeem doesn’t get this to the ground, he’s in trouble. Sefo by TKO.
Leland Roling: I’m somewhat torn here. Sefo has the K-1 pedigree to be a threat, but Overeem has overwhelming experience on top of complete disregard for safety. While that’s normally a bad thing, it may surprise Sefo here. I’ll bank on the boys at Xtreme Couture helping Sefo hone his skills enough to overcome the sloppiness of Valentijn. Ray Sefo via TKO.
Anton Tabuena: This is a hard fight to pick, but I’m not that impressed with either guy. Valentijn, while he’s still a dangerous fighter, is no Alistair. Sefo on the other hand, is aging, and hasn’t exactly been competing in MMA that much. If it goes to the ground Overeem will take it, but on the feet, Sefo will have the edge. I’m not that confident with this pick cause of his willingness to bang, but I guess it’s Overeem by submission.
Duane Finley: Every card as a “pick em'” and this is mine. Overeem has the experience and skills to end the fight on the ground and Sefo certainly has the power to end things on the feet. Sefo has said he is looking to make a bigger investment in MMA and I think we see it in this fight. We’ll also see if training at Xtreme Couture has paid off for Sefo in the takedown defense department and if it has, he finishes the fight impressively. Sefo via TKO 1st Round.
Matt Bishop: I’m still astounded by the fact this fight even exists. We all know Sefo, a decorated kickboxer, is skilled on the feet, but he hasn’t knocked anyone out in K-1 since 2006. If he’s going to win this fight, it has to be on the feet. Overeem needs to get this fight to the ground. If he does, he wins easily. If not, well, this might not end well for him. Will Overeem be smart? Time will tell! At least that’s one storyline to get excited about for this fight. Sefo by KO, round 1.
Chad Griggs vs. Gian Villante
Kid Nate: Really hard to get too pumped for this fight. I’ll have to go with Villante because I’m not convinced Griggs is a big time talent. Villante by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: Griggs didn’t beat Lashley because he’s particularly good at anything, he won because Lashley is a guy who didn’t really train to get better at anything and gassed some kind of horrible. Gian Villante is a decent enough prospect (but another who I think is a little overhyped by some) and he should pull off an easy-ish win. Gian Villante by TKO, round 2.
Mike Fagan: Griggs “rope-a-dope” strategy worked to perfection against Bobby Lashley. Maybe he busts out a shuffle and an anchor punch in this one. Gian Villante by TKO, round one.
Nick Thomas: This should be a light heavyweight fight for both fighters. Villante by TKO.
Leland Roling: If you’ve been following the scouting report, you know very well what Villante brings to the table. A former linebacker who nearly made a splash in the NFL, his athleticism and wrestling should easily dispatch of Griggs here. Gian Villante via TKO.
Anton Tabuena: Chad Griggs was supposed to lose against Bobby Lashley and be one and done with Strikeforce. Now, he’s trying to build up on that with another victory on the televised main card. I think Villante is the better fighter, and while he is a bit undersized for heavyweight, it won’t matter as Griggs isn’t exactly that huge either. Villante by TKO.
Duane Finley: I am still trying to make sense of Griggs beating Lashley but nevertheless Villante will bring balance back to the world. I see a solid start for both but Villante taking it. Villante by decision.
Matt Bishop: The way Chad Griggs managed to beat Bobby Lashley still astounds me. That fight was something else. Now Griggs get a real solid fighter in Villante, a Ring of Combat veteran. Villante is a real solid signing for Strikeforce and I see him rolling to victory here. Villante via TKO, round 2.