In the main event on Saturday’s UFC 126 in Las Vegas UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva (27-4, 12-0 UFC) aims to extend his UFC record for most consecutive title defenses to eight. He’ll battle fellow Brazilian Vitor Belfort (19-8, 8-4 UFC).
Silva’s most recent defense, a five-round war with contender Chael Sonnen back in August, was the comeback of the 2010. After being smothered by Sonnen’s relentless take down game and ground and pound for four-and-a-half rounds, Silva slapped on a triangle from guard and cinched up an armbar. Silva got the tap, but Sonnen’s effective gameplan did spark discussion that Silva isn’t the invincible force that he once was.
The 33-year-old Belfort has had an impressive streak of success over the last three years, which has added gallons of fuel to the fire that he has a chance to knock out Silva. Victories over Ivan Serati, James Zikic, and Terry Martin may not peak your interest, but the devastating knockouts of Matt Lindland and Rich Franklin certainly suggest that Belfort is a highly-threatening opponent for Silva.
The intrigue in Belfort’s speedy striking versus Anderson’s brilliant precision punching is only the tip of the iceberg. Both Silva and Belfort are very popular in their home country of Brazil, and this is being called one of the most prominent fights in the history of Brazilian mixed martial arts. Furthermore, there is some animosity between the two fighters as Silva and Belfort don’t get along too well. Some stories have surfaced, but it’s obvious that Belfort accepting the fight against a fellow Brazilian has angered Silva a bit. The combination of these storylines has fueled a lot of interest in this showdown, and it may have created the perfect environment for a guy like Silva to wake up from his boredom.
On paper, Dana White has a reason to be nervous. The Ultimate Staring Competition? I wouldn’t put it past these two guys to be very cautious in the opening rounds of this five-round war, but I would be surprised to see this battle go the distance. Belfort’s combination of speed and power is his greatest strength, and while Silva also possesses those same skills — Belfort is a quicker puncher. Silva succeeds in countering strikers, and this fight will likely come down to whether Silva can avoid Belfort’s incoming attacks and counter.
The second possibility, the most unlikely, is that Belfort will use his strength to put Silva on his back. Belfort, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, should have the chops the ground to avoid Silva’s submission attempts while also pounding on Silva with brutal top control striking. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but I don’t think we’ll see this type of gameplan from Belfort.
In the lead-up to this event, I’ve had a strange feeling that Silva might succumb to the powerful, quick striking that Belfort produces. I haven’t been overly impressed with Silva in his last two performances, especially in the Sonnen fight. Maia was an easy decision, but as the fight dragged on — Silva was obviously tired and open to damage from a far lesser puncher in Maia. He can’t make that mistake against Belfort.
I’m going against the consensus pick in Silva and banking on Belfort to upset the champion. I think Belfort’s layoff is a concern, but I also think his striking is being underrated a bit. Silva’s defense has opened up a bit in recent fights, and the fact that he gets fairly tired from bouncing around the cage is disconcerting to his continued dominance. Silva is a safe pick, but I’ll go out on a limb and take Belfort via TKO.